Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Cal Poly 36.5, San Diego 21.6 at Mustang Memorial Field at Spanos Stadium in Week 3. That is a solid edge: Cal Poly wins about 84% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14.9 points and 58.1 combined points.
San Diego is 0-2, scoring 17 and allowing 54 points per game (-37 per game). Cal Poly is 2-1, scoring 27.3 and allowing 27 points per game (+0.3 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between San Diego by 8 and Cal Poly by 37 about 80% of the time.
Cal Poly gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Cal Poly by about 12.8. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: San Diego 38, Cal Poly 35. San Diego won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 17.9 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (San Diego / Cal Poly) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Cal Poly -18.5 → Cal Poly -17.5 | 56.5 → 57.5 | +515 / -810 |
| DraftKings | Cal Poly -18.5 → Cal Poly -17.5 | 56.5 → 57.5 | +515 / -810 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Cal Poly win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Cal Poly -15 | 58.1 | 84% |
| Market consensus | Cal Poly -17.5 | 57.5 | 85% |
| Blended projection | Cal Poly -17 | 57.7 | 88% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Cal Poly win probability
- model 84% · market (no-vig) 85% · difference -1 pts
- Margin
- model Cal Poly -14.9 · market Cal Poly -17.5 · difference -2.6 pts (Cal Poly view)
- Total
- model 58.1 · market 57.5 · difference +0.6
Model margin is 2.6 pts more toward San Diego than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | San Diego 21.6, Cal Poly 36.5 | Cal Poly 84%wrong winner | 17.9 | 14.9 |
| New formula | San Diego 23.2, Cal Poly 34.6 | Cal Poly 76%wrong winner | 14.4 | 15.3 |
Final: San Diego 38, Cal Poly 35. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
San Diego vs Cal Poly: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | San Diego | Cal Poly |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 28.4 | 27.5 |
| Points allowed per game | 24.3 | 31.5 |
| Yards per play | 5.54 | 6.17 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.56 | 6.19 |
| Rushing yards per game | 165.1 | 142.2 |
| Net passing yards per game | 197.9 | 263.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 128.3 | 185.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 227.3 | 254.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.42 | 1.50 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.25 | 1.08 |
| Sacks per game | 3.08 | 1.75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.67 | 2.08 |
| Stat | San Diego | Cal Poly |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.01 | +0.04 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.00 | +0.02 |
| Success rate | 37.6% | 38.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.6% | 44.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.3% | 13.9% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.9% | 12.3% |
| Havoc rate | 13.9% | 10.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 13.7% | 13.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 1.92 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 2.29 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.5 | 65.8 |
| Stat | San Diego | Cal Poly |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.07 | -0.02 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.10 | +0.09 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.09 | +0.03 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08 | +0.00 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.8% | 36.1% |
| Passing success rate | 39.2% | 38.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.8% | 20.9% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.4% | 28.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.5% | 31.9% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.0% | 36.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.9% | 42.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 25.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 38.7% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: San Diego schedule · Cal Poly schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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