2026 schedule
San Diego Toreros
2026 season so far
San Diego is 3-5 against the 93rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 29 and allowing 37.3 points per game (-8.3 per game).
San Diego plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs Marist in Week 9. We project San Diego 29, Marist 24 — San Diego wins 64% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
11 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
UC Davis Aggies
2-0 · SOS #86
Loss 17-49
Week 1
Our number· pregame
UC Davis by 3.9
Total 58.7
DraftKings
UCD -14.5
Total 54.5
Final UC Davis by 32. UC Davis beat the spread. 66 points — over the 54.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UC Davis -14.5 (open UC Davis -15.5) · O/U 54.5 (open 57.5) · ML -800 / +509 · San Diego 16% no-vig · model vs market +10.6 pts, +24 pct pts (San Diego view)
ESPN+ Torero StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed - at
Idaho State Bengals
3-0 · SOS #122
Loss 17-59
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Idaho State by 14.9
Total 52.5
DraftKings
IDST -22.5
Total 58.5
Final Idaho State by 42. Idaho State beat the spread. 76 points — over the 58.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Idaho State -22.5 (open Idaho State -25.5) · O/U 58.5 · ML +860 / -1860 · Idaho State 90% no-vig · model vs market -7.6 pts, -7 pct pts (Idaho State view)
ESPN+ ICCU Dome - at
Cal Poly Mustangs
2-2 · SOS #92
Win 38-35
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Cal Poly by 14.9
Total 58.1
DraftKings
CP -17.5
Total 57.5
Final San Diego by 3. San Diego beat the spread. 73 points — over the 57.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Cal Poly -17.5 (open Cal Poly -18.5) · O/U 57.5 (open 56.5) · ML +515 / -810 · Cal Poly 85% no-vig · model vs market -2.6 pts, -1 pct pts (Cal Poly view)
ESPN+ Mustang Memorial Field at Spanos Stadium - at
St. Thomas Tommies
4-1 · SOS #127
Loss 17-50
Week 4
Our number· pregame
St. Thomas by 9.1
Total 60.9
DraftKings
STMN -5.5
Total 57.5
Final St. Thomas by 33. St. Thomas beat the spread. 67 points — over the 57.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: St. Thomas -5.5 · O/U 57.5 (open 58.5) · ML +143 / -179 · St. Thomas 61% no-vig · model vs market +3.6 pts, +12 pct pts (St. Thomas view)
Game-time weather: Cloudy, 61°F, Wind 11 mph SE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMSP)O'Shaughnessy StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: hitShort home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded gamesHome favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: hit (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last gameFlip-flop totals underStudy · Lean Under: Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: Record 307 hits, 231 misses (57% hit rate) over 538 graded gamesUnderdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: missed (n=538) · Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over - vs
Davidson Wildcats
2-4 · SOS #171
Win 63-14
Week 5
Our number· pregame
San Diego by 15.5
Total 63.1
DraftKings
USD -18.5
Total 62.5
Final San Diego by 49. San Diego beat the spread. 77 points — over the 62.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: San Diego -18.5 (open San Diego -14.5) · O/U 62.5 (open 63.5) · ML +535 / -860 · San Diego 85% no-vig · model vs market -3.0 pts, -1 pct pts (San Diego view)
Game-time weather: 103°F, Wind 1 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (E9873)ESPN+ Torero StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games - at
Butler Bulldogs
5-1 · SOS #111
Loss 10-41
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Butler by 10.8
Total 61.2
DraftKings
USD -1.5
Total 61.5
Final Butler by 31. Butler beat the spread. 51 points — under the 61.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: San Diego -1.5 (open San Diego -2.5) · O/U 61.5 (open 57.5) · ML -154 / +123 · Butler 43% no-vig · model vs market +12.3 pts, +34 pct pts (Butler view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 7 mph SE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KEYE)ESPN+ Bud and Jackie Sellick BowlPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games - vs
Valparaiso Beacons
3-4 · SOS #160
Win 38-13
Week 7
Our number· pregame
San Diego by 2.1
Total 55.1
DraftKings
USD -6
Total 51.5
Final San Diego by 25. San Diego beat the spread. 51 points — under the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: San Diego -6 (open San Diego -5.5) · O/U 51.5 · ML +208 / -269 · San Diego 69% no-vig · model vs market -3.9 pts, -14 pct pts (San Diego view)
Game-time weather: 93°F, Wind 2 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (E9873)ESPN+ Torero StadiumPregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed - at
Dayton Flyers
6-1 · SOS #159
Loss 32-37
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Dayton by 9
Total 53.6
Book line
Not posted
Final Dayton by 5. 69 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: Clear, 68°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KFFO)Welcome Stadium - vs
Marist Red Foxes
4-4 · SOS #154
Sat, Oct 31, 8:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 29-24 · 64%
Our number
San Diego by 5
Total 53
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Slight chance rain showers, 71°F, Wind 5 mph SW, 21% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Torero StadiumExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games - at
Drake Bulldogs
2-6 · SOS #112
Sat, Nov 7, 6:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 30-29 · 53%
Our number
San Diego by 1
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Drake Stadium (IA)ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games - vs
Stetson Hatters
1-7 · SOS #110
Sun, Nov 22, 1:00 AM
Week 12
Proj 41-22 · 89%
Our number
San Diego by 19
Total 63
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Torero StadiumExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
Times shown in your local time
San Diego Toreros stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-23.3
Adj. offense
17.2
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
40.5
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 29.0 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 37.3 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.83 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 7.74 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 165.8 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 266.1 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 173.0 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 268.3 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.00 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.88 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.00 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.00 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.04 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.16 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 41.7% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 46.4% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 10.6% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 16.9% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 12.5% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 11.6% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 0.00 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 0.00 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 0 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 0 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 74.1 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.02 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.09 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.14 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.17 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 40.0% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 44.7% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 19.4% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 34.0% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 35.7% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 41.2% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 41.4% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 0.0% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 0.0% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.