Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected UC Davis 31.3, San Diego 27.4 at Torero Stadium in Week 1. That is a lean: UC Davis wins about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.9 points and 58.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
UC Davis is 1-0, scoring 31 and allowing 24 points per game (+7 per game). San Diego has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UC Davis by 26 and San Diego by 19 about 80% of the time.
San Diego gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. UC Davis is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: UC Davis 49, San Diego 17. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 28.1 points and the total by 7.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (UC Davis / San Diego) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | UC Davis -15.5 → UC Davis -14.5 | 57.5 → 54.5 | -800 / +509 |
| DraftKings | UC Davis -15.5 → UC Davis -14.5 | 57.5 → 54.5 | -800 / +509 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | San Diego win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | UC Davis -4 | 58.7 | 40% |
| Market consensus | UC Davis -14.5 | 54.5 | 16% |
| Blended projection | UC Davis -13 | 55.2 | 19% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- San Diego win probability
- model 40% · market (no-vig) 16% · difference +24 pts
- Margin
- model UC Davis -3.9 · market UC Davis -14.5 · difference +10.6 pts (San Diego view)
- Total
- model 58.7 · market 54.5 · difference +4.2
Model margin is 10.6 pts more toward San Diego than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | UC Davis 31.3, San Diego 27.4 | UC Davis 60%right winner | 28.1 | 7.3 |
| New formula | UC Davis 29.1, San Diego 28.2 | UC Davis 52%right winner | 31.1 | 8.8 |
Final: UC Davis 49, San Diego 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
UC Davis vs San Diego: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | UC Davis | San Diego |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.4 | 28.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.2 | 24.3 |
| Yards per play | 7.30 | 5.54 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.34 | 5.56 |
| Rushing yards per game | 200.6 | 165.1 |
| Net passing yards per game | 277.2 | 197.9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 198.9 | 128.3 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 236.5 | 227.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.31 | 0.42 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.15 | 1.25 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 3.08 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.38 | 1.67 |
| Stat | UC Davis | San Diego |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.12 | +0.01 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.05 | -0.00 |
| Success rate | 49.2% | 37.6% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.2% | 39.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 14.8% | 10.3% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.6% | 12.9% |
| Havoc rate | 12.5% | 13.9% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.4% | 13.7% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.77 | 0.00 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.40 | 0.00 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 4 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.5 | 65.5 |
| Stat | UC Davis | San Diego |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06 | -0.07 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.17 | +0.10 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.14 | -0.09 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04 | +0.08 |
| Rushing success rate | 51.3% | 38.8% |
| Passing success rate | 48.5% | 39.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 15.7% | 21.8% |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.2% | 28.4% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.8% | 31.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 47.0% | 39.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.9% | 38.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 40.5% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 54.6% | 0.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UC Davis schedule · San Diego schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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