2026 schedule
UC Davis Aggies
2026 season so far
UC Davis is 5-3 against the 86th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32 and allowing 31 points per game (+1 per game).
UC Davis plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: at Weber State in Week 9. We project UC Davis 33, Weber State 30 — UC Davis wins 59% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- at
Portland State Vikings
0-1 · SOS #8
Win 31-24
Week 1
Our number· pregame
UC Davis by 10.7
Total 60.9
DraftKings
UCD -25.5
Total 60.5
Final UC Davis by 7. Portland State beat the spread. 55 points — under the 60.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UC Davis -25.5 (open UC Davis -24.5) · O/U 60.5 (open 62.5) · ML -5400 / +1300 · Portland State 7% no-vig · model vs market +14.8 pts, +17 pct pts (Portland State view)
ESPN+ Hillsboro Stadium - at
San Diego Toreros
0-1 · SOS #93
Win 49-17
Week 1
Our number· pregame
UC Davis by 3.9
Total 58.7
DraftKings
UCD -14.5
Total 54.5
Final UC Davis by 32. UC Davis beat the spread. 66 points — over the 54.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UC Davis -14.5 (open UC Davis -15.5) · O/U 54.5 (open 57.5) · ML -800 / +509 · San Diego 16% no-vig · model vs market +10.6 pts, +24 pct pts (San Diego view)
ESPN+ Torero Stadium - at
#17 SMU Mustangs
2-0 · SOS #70
Loss 10-56
Week 2
Our number· pregame
SMU by 32.3
Total 54.9
DraftKings
SMU -32.5
Total 59.5
Final SMU by 46. SMU beat the spread. 66 points — over the 59.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: SMU -32.5 (open SMU -27) · O/U 59.25 (open 58.5) · ML +1600 / -4000 · SMU 94% no-vig · model vs market -0.2 pts, +4 pct pts (SMU view)
ACCNX Gerald J. Ford Stadium - vs
Stetson Hatters
1-3 · SOS #110
Win 45-7
Week 3
Our number· pregame
UC Davis by 11.9
Total 55.1
DraftKings
UCD -47.5
Total 65.5
Final UC Davis by 38. Stetson beat the spread. 52 points — under the 65.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UC Davis -47.5 · O/U 65 (open 64) · model vs market -35.6 pts (UC Davis view)
ESPN+ UC Davis Health Stadium - vs
Montana Grizzlies
4-1 · SOS #50
Loss 22-62
Week 4
Our number· pregame
UC Davis by 7.6
Total 60
DraftKings
UCD -3
Total 61.5
Final Montana by 40. Montana beat the spread. 84 points — over the 61.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UC Davis -3 (open UC Davis -3.5) · O/U 61.5 (open 60.5) · ML +124 / -154 · UC Davis 58% no-vig · model vs market +4.6 pts, +12 pct pts (UC Davis view)
Game-time weather: 66°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KEDU)ESPN+ UC Davis Health Stadium - vs
Eastern Washington Eagles
1-5 · SOS #11
Win 49-38
Week 5
Our number· pregame
UC Davis by 9.4
Total 62.4
DraftKings
UCD -8.5
Total 61.5
Final UC Davis by 11. UC Davis beat the spread. 87 points — over the 61.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UC Davis -8.5 (open UC Davis -9.5) · O/U 61.5 (open 60.5) · ML +269 / -358 · UC Davis 74% no-vig · model vs market +0.9 pts, -1 pct pts (UC Davis view)
Game-time weather: 77°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KEDU)ESPN2 UC Davis Health Stadium - at
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
3-4 · SOS #38
Loss 17-38
Week 7
Our number· pregame
UC Davis by 0.9
Total 65.3
DraftKings
UCD -4.5
Total 65.5
Final Southern Utah by 21. Southern Utah beat the spread. 55 points — under the 65.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UC Davis -4.5 (open UC Davis -5.5) · O/U 65.5 (open 64.5) · ML -196 / +155 · Southern Utah 37% no-vig · model vs market +3.6 pts, +11 pct pts (Southern Utah view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 57°F, Wind 9 mph SSW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCDC)ESPN+ Eccles Coliseum - vs
Northern Colorado Bears
3-6 · SOS #62
Win 33-6
Week 8
Our number· pregame
UC Davis by 11.3
Total 53.7
Book line
Not posted
Final UC Davis by 27. 39 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Game-time weather: 73°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KEDU)ESPN+ UC Davis Health Stadium - at
Weber State Wildcats
5-4 · SOS #73
Sat, Oct 31, 7:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 33-30 · 59%
Our number
UC Davis by 3
Total 63
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Chance showers and thunderstorms, 58°F, Wind 5 mph S, 36% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Stewart Stadium - vs
Utah Tech Trailblazers
1-7 · SOS #17
Sun, Nov 8, 12:00 AM
Week 10
Proj 37-20 · 87%
Our number
UC Davis by 17
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ UC Davis Health Stadium - at
Idaho Vandals
3-5 · SOS #7
Sat, Nov 14, 9:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 30-30 · 50%
Our number
dead even
Total 60
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Kibbie Dome - vs
Cal Poly Mustangs
4-5 · SOS #92
Sat, Nov 21, 9:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 35-24 · 77%
Our number
UC Davis by 11
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ UC Davis Health Stadium
Times shown in your local time
UC Davis Aggies stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-15.3
Adj. offense
20.4
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
35.8
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 32.0 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 31.0 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.58 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.42 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 173.3 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 264.5 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 176.8 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 267.5 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.00 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.88 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.50 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.63 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.04 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.10 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 42.2% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 42.0% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 13.0% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 13.2% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 13.6% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 10.9% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.39 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.45 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 10 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 8 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 66.5 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.10 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.02 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.01 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.16 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 47.5% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 41.9% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 16.2% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 30.4% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 31.6% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 38.3% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 41.0% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 53.8% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 56.9% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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