Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected UC Davis 35.8, Portland State 25.1 at Hillsboro Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: UC Davis wins about 76% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 10.7 points and 60.9 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
UC Davis has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Portland State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UC Davis by 33 and Portland State by 12 about 80% of the time.
Portland State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. UC Davis is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: UC Davis 31, Portland State 24. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.7 points and the total by 5.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (UC Davis / Portland State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | UC Davis -24.5 → UC Davis -25.5 | 62.5 → 60.5 | -5400 / +1300 |
| DraftKings | UC Davis -24.5 → UC Davis -25.5 | 62.5 → 60.5 | -5400 / +1300 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Portland State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | UC Davis -10.5 | 60.9 | 24% |
| Market consensus | UC Davis -25.5 | 60.5 | 7% |
| Blended projection | UC Davis -23 | 60.5 | 6% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Portland State win probability
- model 24% · market (no-vig) 7% · difference +17 pts
- Margin
- model UC Davis -10.7 · market UC Davis -25.5 · difference +14.8 pts (Portland State view)
- Total
- model 60.9 · market 60.5 · difference +0.4
Model margin is 14.8 pts more toward Portland State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | UC Davis 35.8, Portland State 25.1 | UC Davis 76%right winner | 3.7 | 5.9 |
| New formula | UC Davis 36.8, Portland State 24.9 | UC Davis 76%right winner | 4.9 | 6.6 |
Final: UC Davis 31, Portland State 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
UC Davis vs Portland State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | UC Davis | Portland State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.4 | 16.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 30.2 | 42.7 |
| Yards per play | 7.30 | 5.30 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.34 | 7.25 |
| Rushing yards per game | 200.6 | 120.5 |
| Net passing yards per game | 277.2 | 219.4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 198.9 | 265.2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 236.5 | 195.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.31 | 1.83 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.15 | 0.58 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00 | 1.33 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.38 | 1.75 |
| Stat | UC Davis | Portland State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.12 | -0.16 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.05 | +0.22 |
| Success rate | 49.2% | 37.9% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.2% | 47.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 14.8% | 10.6% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.6% | 16.9% |
| Havoc rate | 12.5% | 11.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.4% | 15.8% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 2.77 | 0.87 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.40 | 2.30 |
| Average starting field position | opp 5 | opp 13 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 4 | opp 10 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.5 | 64.1 |
| Stat | UC Davis | Portland State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06 | -0.17 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.17 | -0.16 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.14 | +0.29 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.04 | +0.13 |
| Rushing success rate | 51.3% | 36.0% |
| Passing success rate | 48.5% | 38.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 15.7% | 29.6% |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.2% | 26.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.8% | 31.8% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 47.0% | 35.5% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.9% | 47.2% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 40.5% | 13.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 54.6% | 33.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UC Davis schedule · Portland State schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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