Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected UC Davis 32.5, Northern Colorado 21.2 at UC Davis Health Stadium in Week 8. That is a solid edge: UC Davis wins about 77% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.3 points and 53.6 combined points.
Northern Colorado is 3-5, scoring 23.6 and allowing 25.5 points per game (-1.9 per game). UC Davis is 4-3, scoring 31.9 and allowing 34.6 points per game (-2.7 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Northern Colorado by 11 and UC Davis by 34 about 80% of the time.
UC Davis gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour UC Davis by about 9.2. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Northern Colorado 6, UC Davis 33. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 15.7 points and the total by 14.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Northern Colorado 21.2, UC Davis 32.5 | UC Davis 77%right winner | 15.7 | 14.6 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Northern Colorado 6, UC Davis 33. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Northern Colorado vs UC Davis: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Northern Colorado | UC Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.3 | 32.4 |
| Points allowed per game | 28.4 | 30.2 |
| Yards per play | 5.58 | 7.30 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.20 | 6.34 |
| Rushing yards per game | 125.7 | 200.6 |
| Net passing yards per game | 243.8 | 277.2 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 215.5 | 198.9 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 219.8 | 236.5 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50 | 1.31 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.17 | 1.15 |
| Sacks per game | 1.25 | 2.00 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.83 | 2.38 |
| Stat | Northern Colorado | UC Davis |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.09 | +0.12 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.02 | +0.05 |
| Success rate | 39.7% | 49.2% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.5% | 43.2% |
| Explosive play rate | 10.2% | 14.8% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.9% | 13.6% |
| Havoc rate | 12.1% | 12.5% |
| Havoc allowed | 14.6% | 12.4% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.82 | 2.77 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.92 | 3.40 |
| Average starting field position | opp 6 | opp 5 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 5 | opp 4 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.3 | 65.5 |
| Stat | Northern Colorado | UC Davis |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.20 | +0.06 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.00 | +0.17 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05 | +0.14 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.10 | -0.04 |
| Rushing success rate | 39.2% | 51.3% |
| Passing success rate | 40.2% | 48.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 21.1% | 15.7% |
| Passing-down success rate | 28.1% | 34.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 33.5% | 29.8% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.1% | 47.0% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.4% | 43.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 59.8% | 40.5% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 49.1% | 54.6% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Northern Colorado schedule · UC Davis schedule · all Week 8 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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