2026 schedule
Northern Colorado Bears
2026 season so far
Northern Colorado is 3-6 against the 62nd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21.7 and allowing 26.3 points per game (-4.6 per game).
Northern Colorado plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: at Southern Utah in Week 10. We project Northern Colorado 19, Southern Utah 33 — Northern Colorado wins 19% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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- vs
Weber State Wildcats
1-0 · SOS #73
Loss 29-30
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Northern Colorado by 2.9
Total 54.7
DraftKings
UNCO -3
Total 50.5
Final Weber State by 1. Weber State beat the spread. 59 points — over the 50.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Northern Colorado -3 (open Northern Colorado -3.5) · O/U 50.5 (open 49.5) · ML +129 / -161 · Northern Colorado 59% no-vig · model vs market -0.1 pts, -1 pct pts (Northern Colorado view)
ESPN+ Nottingham Field - vs
South Dakota Coyotes
2-0 · SOS #35
Loss 23-38
Week 1
Our number· pregame
South Dakota by 5.8
Total 52.4
DraftKings
SDAK -20.5
Total 56.5
Final South Dakota by 15. Northern Colorado beat the spread. 61 points — over the 56.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: South Dakota -20.5 · O/U 56.5 · ML -2100 / +920 · Northern Colorado 9% no-vig · model vs market +14.7 pts, +26 pct pts (Northern Colorado view)
ESPN+ Nottingham Field - at
Wyoming Cowboys
1-1 · SOS #130
Loss 13-21
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Wyoming by 31.7
Total 41.9
DraftKings
WYO -23.5
Total 44.5
Final Wyoming by 8. Northern Colorado beat the spread. 34 points — under the 44.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Wyoming -23.5 (open Wyoming -22.5) · O/U 44.25 (open 47.5) · ML +975 / -1900 · Wyoming 91% no-vig · model vs market +8.2 pts, +7 pct pts (Wyoming view)
MW+ War Memorial Stadium - vs
Northeastern State RiverHawks
3-1 · SOS #12
Win 23-17
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Northern Colorado by 6
Total 49.4
Book line
Not posted
Final Northern Colorado by 6. 40 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Nottingham Field - vs
Utah Tech Trailblazers
0-5 · SOS #17
Win 37-13
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Northern Colorado by 7.9
Total 48.7
DraftKings
UNCO -7.5
Total 49.5
Final Northern Colorado by 24. Northern Colorado beat the spread. 50 points — over the 49.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Northern Colorado -7.5 · O/U 49.5 · ML +292 / -395 · Northern Colorado 76% no-vig · model vs market +0.4 pts, -6 pct pts (Northern Colorado view)
ESPN+ Nottingham Field - at
Montana Grizzlies
5-1 · SOS #50
Loss 14-36
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Montana by 21.9
Total 55.3
DraftKings
MONT -21.5
Total 58.5
Final Montana by 22. Montana beat the spread. 50 points — under the 58.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Montana -21.5 (open Montana -26.5) · O/U 58.5 (open 57.5) · ML +850 / -1820 · Montana 90% no-vig · model vs market +0.4 pts, +2 pct pts (Montana view)
ESPN+ Washington-Grizzly Stadium - at
Eastern Washington Eagles
2-5 · SOS #11
Loss 22-31
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Eastern Washington by 7.2
Total 54.8
DraftKings
EWU -6.5
Total 58.5
Final Eastern Washington by 9. Eastern Washington beat the spread. 53 points — under the 58.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Eastern Washington -6.5 · O/U 58.5 · ML +209 / -269 · Eastern Washington 69% no-vig · model vs market +0.7 pts, -1 pct pts (Eastern Washington view)
ESPN+ Roos Field - vs
Cal Poly Mustangs
4-4 · SOS #92
Win 28-18
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Cal Poly by 3.5
Total 51.5
DraftKings
CP -3
Total 52.5
Final Northern Colorado by 10. Northern Colorado beat the spread. 46 points — under the 52.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Cal Poly -3 · O/U 52.5 (open 53.5) · ML -174 / +139 · Northern Colorado 40% no-vig · model vs market -0.5 pts, +1 pct pts (Northern Colorado view)
ESPN+ Nottingham Field - at
UC Davis Aggies
5-3 · SOS #86
Loss 6-33
Week 8
Our number· pregame
UC Davis by 11.3
Total 53.7
Book line
Not posted
Final UC Davis by 27. 39 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ UC Davis Health Stadium - at
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
3-5 · SOS #38
Sat, Nov 7, 8:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 19-33 · 19%
Our number
Southern Utah by 14
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Eccles Coliseum - vs
Montana State Bobcats
7-1 · SOS #55
Sat, Nov 14, 7:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 12-38 · 4%
Our number
Montana State by 26
Total 50
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Nottingham Field - at
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
6-2 · SOS #16
Sat, Nov 21, 9:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 19-32 · 20%
Our number
Northern Arizona by 13
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome
Times shown in your local time
Northern Colorado Bears stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-27.9
Adj. offense
10.2
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
38.0
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 21.7 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 26.3 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.80 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.24 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 180.6 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 212.2 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 150.7 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 247.8 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.00 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.67 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.44 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.44 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.01 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.14 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 38.3% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 45.1% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 13.4% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 13.0% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 13.2% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 16.9% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 2.28 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.88 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 8 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 8 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 67.8 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.04 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.01 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.07 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.19 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 44.3% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 34.7% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 21.4% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 30.8% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 29.7% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 42.7% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 36.1% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 36.2% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 66.0% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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