Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Northern Colorado 28.8, Weber State 25.9 at Nottingham Field in Week 1. That is a genuine toss-up: Northern Colorado wins about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.9 points and 54.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
Weber State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Northern Colorado has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Weber State by 20 and Northern Colorado by 25 about 80% of the time.
Northern Colorado gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Northern Colorado by about 0.8. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Weber State 30, Northern Colorado 29. Weber State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 3.9 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Weber State / Northern Colorado) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Northern Colorado -3.5 → Northern Colorado -3 | 49.5 → 50.5 | +129 / -161 |
| DraftKings | Northern Colorado -3.5 → Northern Colorado -3 | 49.5 → 50.5 | +129 / -161 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Northern Colorado win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Northern Colorado -3 | 54.6 | 58% |
| Market consensus | Northern Colorado -3 | 50.5 | 59% |
| Blended projection | Northern Colorado -3 | 51.5 | 58% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Northern Colorado win probability
- model 58% · market (no-vig) 59% · difference -1 pts
- Margin
- model Northern Colorado -2.9 · market Northern Colorado -3 · difference -0.1 pts (Northern Colorado view)
- Total
- model 54.6 · market 50.5 · difference +4.1
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Weber State 25.9, Northern Colorado 28.8 | Northern Colorado 58%wrong winner | 3.9 | 4.4 |
| New formula | Weber State 22.8, Northern Colorado 30.5 | Northern Colorado 67%wrong winner | 8.8 | 5.7 |
Final: Weber State 30, Northern Colorado 29. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Weber State vs Northern Colorado: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Weber State | Northern Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 23.1 | 20.3 |
| Points allowed per game | 38.3 | 28.4 |
| Yards per play | 5.38 | 5.58 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.56 | 6.20 |
| Rushing yards per game | 159.7 | 125.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 182.7 | 243.8 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 201.8 | 215.5 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 233.8 | 219.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.58 | 1.50 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.08 | 1.17 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75 | 1.25 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.17 | 0.83 |
| Stat | Weber State | Northern Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.14 | -0.09 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.00 | -0.02 |
| Success rate | 37.5% | 39.7% |
| Success rate allowed | 40.6% | 43.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 11.4% | 10.2% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.4% | 11.9% |
| Havoc rate | 14.7% | 12.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.5% | 14.6% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 1.81 | 3.82 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.10 | 2.92 |
| Average starting field position | opp 11 | opp 6 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 10 | opp 5 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 63.7 | 66.3 |
| Stat | Weber State | Northern Colorado |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.13 | -0.20 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.16 | +0.00 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01 | +0.05 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.03 | -0.10 |
| Rushing success rate | 38.8% | 39.2% |
| Passing success rate | 35.0% | 40.2% |
| Run stuff rate | 20.1% | 21.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.8% | 28.1% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.3% | 33.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.4% | 36.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.9% | 39.4% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 27.0% | 59.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 36.9% | 49.1% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Weber State schedule · Northern Colorado schedule · all Week 1 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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