2026 schedule
Weber State Wildcats
2026 season so far
Weber State is 5-4 against the 73rd-toughest schedule so far, scoring 35.9 and allowing 34.6 points per game (+1.3 per game).
Weber State plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: vs UC Davis in Week 9. We project Weber State 30, UC Davis 33 — Weber State wins 41% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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- at
Northern Colorado Bears
0-1 · SOS #62
Win 30-29
Week 1
Our number· model now
Weber State by 4
Total 56
DraftKings
UNCO -3
Total 50.5
Final Weber State by 1. Weber State beat the spread. 59 points — over the 50.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Northern Colorado -3 (open Northern Colorado -3.5) · O/U 50.5 (open 49.5) · ML +129 / -161 · Northern Colorado 59% no-vig · model vs market -7.0 pts, -19 pct pts (Northern Colorado view)
ESPN+ Nottingham Field - at
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
1-1 · SOS #38
Loss 42-47
Week 1
Our number· model now
Southern Utah by 7
Total 63
DraftKings
SUU -14.5
Total 58.5
Final Southern Utah by 5. Weber State beat the spread. 89 points — over the 58.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Southern Utah -14.5 · O/U 58.5 · ML +520 / -820 · Southern Utah 85% no-vig · model vs market -7.5 pts, -17 pct pts (Southern Utah view)
ESPN+ Eccles Coliseum - at
Colorado Buffaloes
2-0 · SOS #21
Loss 21-52
Week 2
Our number· model now
Colorado by 20
Total 58
DraftKings
COLO -38.5
Total 57.5
Final Colorado by 31. Weber State beat the spread. 73 points — over the 57.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Colorado -38.5 (open Colorado -34) · O/U 57.5 (open 54.5) · ML +2000 / -6500 · Colorado 95% no-vig · model vs market -18.5 pts, -5 pct pts (Colorado view)
ESPN+ Folsom Field - vs
Northwestern State Demons
0-4 · SOS #107
Win 49-20
Week 3
Our number· model now
Weber State by 27
Total 65
DraftKings
WEB -35.5
Total 56.5
Final Weber State by 29. Northwestern State beat the spread. 69 points — over the 56.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Weber State -35.5 (open Weber State -34.5) · O/U 56.5 (open 54.5) · model vs market -8.5 pts (Weber State view)
ESPN+ Stewart Stadium - vs
Portland State Vikings
1-4 · SOS #8
Loss 41-44
Week 4
Our number· model now
Weber State by 13
Total 65
DraftKings
WEB -7
Total 64.5
Final Portland State by 3. Portland State beat the spread. 85 points — over the 64.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Weber State -7 (open Weber State -6.5) · O/U 64.5 (open 65.5) · ML +261 / -346 · Weber State 74% no-vig · model vs market +6.0 pts, +6 pct pts (Weber State view)
ESPN+ Stewart Stadium - at
Cal Poly Mustangs
3-3 · SOS #92
Win 42-34
Week 5
Our number· model now
Weber State by 1
Total 63
DraftKings
CP -6
Total 66.5
Final Weber State by 8. Weber State beat the spread. 76 points — over the 66.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Cal Poly -6 (open Cal Poly -4.5) · O/U 66.5 (open 65.5) · ML +186 / -238 · Cal Poly 67% no-vig · model vs market -7.0 pts, -21 pct pts (Cal Poly view)
ESPN+ Mustang Memorial Field at Spanos Stadium - vs
Idaho Vandals
1-5 · SOS #7
Win 38-27
Week 6
Our number· model now
Idaho by 1
Total 65
DraftKings
IDHO -4
Total 69.5
Final Weber State by 11. Weber State beat the spread. 65 points — under the 69.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Idaho -4 (open Idaho -1.5) · O/U 69.5 · ML -182 / +145 · Weber State 39% no-vig · model vs market +3.0 pts, +8 pct pts (Weber State view)
ESPN+ Stewart Stadium - vs
Idaho State Bengals
4-3 · SOS #122
Win 27-20
Week 7
Our number· model now
Idaho State by 5
Total 61
DraftKings
IDST -4.5
Total 63.5
Final Weber State by 7. Weber State beat the spread. 47 points — under the 63.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Idaho State -4.5 (open Idaho State -7) · O/U 63.5 · ML -250 / +195 · Weber State 32% no-vig · model vs market -0.5 pts, +6 pct pts (Weber State view)
ESPN+ Stewart Stadium - at
Montana State Bobcats
7-1 · SOS #55
Loss 33-38
Week 8
Our number· model now
Montana State by 24
Total 62
Book line
Not posted
Final Montana State by 5. 71 points. No book line was saved for this game.
ESPN+ Bobcat Stadium (MT) - vs
UC Davis Aggies
5-3 · SOS #86
Sat, Oct 31, 7:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 30-33 · 41%
Our number
UC Davis by 3
Total 63
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Stewart Stadium - at
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
6-2 · SOS #16
Sat, Nov 14, 9:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 28-35 · 33%
Our number
Northern Arizona by 7
Total 63
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome - vs
Utah Tech Trailblazers
1-7 · SOS #17
Sat, Nov 21, 8:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 36-24 · 78%
Our number
Weber State by 12
Total 60
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Stewart Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Weber State Wildcats stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-21.1
Adj. offense
19.4
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
40.6
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 35.9 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 34.6 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.31 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.25 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 181.1 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 251.0 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 223.3 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 257.6 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.78 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.89 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.00 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.56 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.06 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.12 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 41.7% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 43.1% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 13.7% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 12.8% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 13.4% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 14.7% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.59 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 4.00 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 9 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 8 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 68.4 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.17 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.04 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.11 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.11 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 50.0% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 36.2% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 16.9% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 27.3% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 34.0% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 44.4% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 42.6% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 67.3% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 58.3% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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