Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Idaho 35.6, Weber State 33.2 at Stewart Stadium in Week 6. That is a genuine toss-up: Idaho wins about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.4 points and 68.7 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans high scoring.
Idaho is 1-4, scoring 27.8 and allowing 40.4 points per game (-12.6 per game). Weber State is 3-3, scoring 37.5 and allowing 37.7 points per game (-0.2 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Idaho by 25 and Weber State by 20 about 80% of the time.
Weber State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Idaho is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Idaho 27, Weber State 38. Weber State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 13.4 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Idaho / Weber State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Idaho -1.5 → Idaho -4 | 69.5 | -182 / +145 |
| DraftKings | Idaho -1.5 → Idaho -4 | 69.5 | -182 / +145 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Weber State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Idaho -2.5 | 68.7 | 44% |
| Market consensus | Idaho -4 | 69.5 | 39% |
| Blended projection | Idaho -4 | 68.7 | 40% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Weber State win probability
- model 44% · market (no-vig) 39% · difference +5 pts
- Margin
- model Idaho -2.4 · market Idaho -4 · difference +1.6 pts (Weber State view)
- Total
- model 68.7 · market 69.5 · difference -0.8
Model margin is 1.6 pts more toward Weber State than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Idaho 35.6, Weber State 33.2 | Idaho 56%wrong winner | 13.4 | 3.7 |
| New formula | Idaho 34.5, Weber State 32.5 | Idaho 55%wrong winner | 13.0 | 2.0 |
Final: Idaho 27, Weber State 38. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Idaho vs Weber State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Idaho | Weber State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.2 | 23.1 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.4 | 38.3 |
| Yards per play | 6.19 | 5.38 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.26 | 6.56 |
| Rushing yards per game | 207.4 | 159.7 |
| Net passing yards per game | 220.4 | 182.7 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 195.8 | 201.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 235.4 | 233.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.08 | 1.58 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75 | 1.08 |
| Sacks per game | 1.33 | 1.75 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.58 | 1.17 |
| Stat | Idaho | Weber State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06 | -0.14 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07 | -0.00 |
| Success rate | 44.1% | 37.5% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.1% | 40.6% |
| Explosive play rate | 14.5% | 11.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.4% | 13.4% |
| Havoc rate | 12.1% | 14.7% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.5% | 12.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.01 | 1.81 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.40 | 2.10 |
| Average starting field position | opp 10 | opp 11 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 11 | opp 10 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.2 | 63.7 |
| Stat | Idaho | Weber State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08 | -0.13 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04 | -0.16 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.17 | -0.03 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.4% | 38.8% |
| Passing success rate | 40.5% | 35.0% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.0% | 20.1% |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.9% | 23.8% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.4% | 25.3% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.4% | 38.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.8% | 35.9% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 71.6% | 27.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 52.9% | 36.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Idaho schedule · Weber State schedule · all Week 6 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.