2026 schedule
Idaho Vandals
2026 season so far
Idaho is 3-5 against the 7th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 29.9 and allowing 37.9 points per game (-8 per game).
Idaho plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: at Portland State in Week 9. We project Idaho 37, Portland State 26 — Idaho wins 78% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- at
Cal Poly Mustangs
1-0 · SOS #92
Loss 34-38
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Cal Poly by 4.3
Total 53.7
DraftKings
IDHO -5.5
Total 53.5
Final Cal Poly by 4. Cal Poly beat the spread. 72 points — over the 53.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Idaho -5.5 (open Idaho -3.5) · O/U 53.5 (open 55.5) · ML -219 / +172 · Cal Poly 35% no-vig · model vs market +9.8 pts, +26 pct pts (Cal Poly view)
ESPN Mustang Memorial Field at Spanos Stadium - at
#21 Utah Utes
1-0 · SOS #64
Loss 14-66
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Utah by 41.2
Total 57.2
DraftKings
UTAH -38.5
Total 60.5
Final Utah by 52. Utah beat the spread. 80 points — over the 60.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Utah -38.5 (open Utah -32.5) · O/U 60.5 (open 56.5) · ML +5000 / -100000 · Utah 98% no-vig · model vs market +2.7 pts, +2 pct pts (Utah view)
ESPNU Rice-Eccles Stadium - vs
Lamar Cardinals
2-1 · SOS #104
Loss 17-23
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Idaho by 1.9
Total 49.7
DraftKings
IDHO -4.5
Total 51.5
Final Lamar by 6. Lamar beat the spread. 40 points — under the 51.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Idaho -4.5 (open Idaho -1.5) · O/U 51.5 (open 49.5) · ML +139 / -175 · Idaho 60% no-vig · model vs market -2.6 pts, -5 pct pts (Idaho view)
ESPN+ Kibbie Dome - vs
Abilene Christian Wildcats
1-3 · SOS #6
Loss 39-41
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Idaho by 3.5
Total 52.3
DraftKings
ACU -1.5
Total 55.5
Final Abilene Christian by 2. Abilene Christian beat the spread. 80 points — over the 55.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Abilene Christian -1.5 · O/U 55.5 (open 54.5) · ML -114 / -109 · Idaho 49% no-vig · model vs market +5.0 pts, +10 pct pts (Idaho view)
ESPN+ Kibbie Dome - vs
Montana State Bobcats
5-1 · SOS #55
Win 35-34
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Montana State by 21
Total 59
DraftKings
MTST -14.5
Total 56.5
Final Idaho by 1. Idaho beat the spread. 69 points — over the 56.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Montana State -14.5 (open Montana State -15.5) · O/U 56.5 (open 57.5) · ML -564 / +391 · Idaho 19% no-vig · model vs market -6.5 pts, -11 pct pts (Idaho view)
Indoors (dome).ESPN Kibbie Dome - at
Weber State Wildcats
4-3 · SOS #73
Loss 27-38
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Idaho by 2.4
Total 68.8
DraftKings
IDHO -4
Total 69.5
Final Weber State by 11. Weber State beat the spread. 65 points — under the 69.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Idaho -4 (open Idaho -1.5) · O/U 69.5 · ML -182 / +145 · Weber State 39% no-vig · model vs market +1.6 pts, +5 pct pts (Weber State view)
Game-time weather: Partly cloudy, 72°F, Wind 10 mph ENE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KOGD)ESPN+ Stewart Stadium - at
Montana Grizzlies
5-3 · SOS #50
Win 42-35
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Montana by 14.8
Total 66
DraftKings
MONT -16.5
Total 62.5
Final Idaho by 7. Idaho beat the spread. 77 points — over the 62.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Montana -16.5 (open Montana -17.5) · O/U 62.5 (open 59.5) · ML +472 / -720 · Montana 83% no-vig · model vs market -1.7 pts, 0 pct pts (Montana view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 64°F, Wind 3 mph WSW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMSO)ESPN+ Washington-Grizzly Stadium - vs
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
3-5 · SOS #38
Win 31-28
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Idaho by 1.1
Total 62.7
Book line
Not posted
Final Idaho by 3. 59 points. No book line was saved for this game.
Indoors (dome).ESPN+ Kibbie Dome - at
Portland State Vikings
2-6 · SOS #8
Sat, Oct 31, 8:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 37-26 · 78%
Our number
Idaho by 11
Total 63
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Mostly sunny, 50°F, Wind calm, 7% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Hillsboro Stadium - vs
Eastern Washington Eagles
2-6 · SOS #11
Sat, Nov 7, 10:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 37-27 · 74%
Our number
Idaho by 10
Total 64
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Kibbie Dome - vs
UC Davis Aggies
5-3 · SOS #86
Sat, Nov 14, 9:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 30-30 · 50%
Our number
dead even
Total 60
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Kibbie Dome - at
Idaho State Bengals
5-3 · SOS #122
Sat, Nov 21, 11:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 26-32 · 36%
Our number
Idaho State by 6
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ ICCU Dome
Times shown in your local time
Idaho Vandals stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-17.6
Adj. offense
20.1
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
37.7
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 29.9 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 37.9 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 6.17 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 7.09 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 143.9 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 272.4 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 246.1 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 219.3 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.00 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.50 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.63 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.88 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.18 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.22 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 44.0% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 46.4% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 13.5% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 14.3% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 12.2% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 12.5% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 2.06 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 2.52 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 11 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 9 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 67.5 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.08 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.27 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.20 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.23 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 41.4% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 46.7% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 14.4% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 35.7% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 33.5% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 42.2% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 45.0% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 29.8% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 35.1% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.