Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Idaho 27.9, Abilene Christian 24.4 at Kibbie Dome in Week 3. That is a lean: Idaho wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.5 points and 52.3 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Abilene Christian is 0-3, scoring 10.3 and allowing 26.7 points per game (-16.4 per game). Idaho is 0-3, scoring 21.7 and allowing 42.3 points per game (-20.6 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Abilene Christian by 19 and Idaho by 26 about 80% of the time.
Idaho gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Idaho by about 1.4. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Abilene Christian 41, Idaho 39. Abilene Christian won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 5.5 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Abilene Christian / Idaho) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Abilene Christian -1.5 | 54.5 → 55.5 | -114 / -109 |
| DraftKings | Abilene Christian -1.5 | 54.5 → 55.5 | -114 / -109 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Idaho win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Idaho -3.5 | 52.3 | 59% |
| Market consensus | Abilene Christian -1.5 | 55.5 | 49% |
| Blended projection | Abilene Christian -0.5 | 55.7 | 48% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Idaho win probability
- model 59% · market (no-vig) 49% · difference +10 pts
- Margin
- model Idaho -3.5 · market Abilene Christian -1.5 · difference +5.0 pts (Idaho view)
- Total
- model 52.3 · market 55.5 · difference -3.2
Model margin is 5.0 pts more toward Idaho than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Abilene Christian 24.4, Idaho 27.9 | Idaho 59%wrong winner | 5.5 | 27.7 |
| New formula | Abilene Christian 29.5, Idaho 25.9 | Abilene Christian 59%right winner | 1.6 | 24.6 |
Final: Abilene Christian 41, Idaho 39. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Abilene Christian vs Idaho: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Abilene Christian | Idaho |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.6 | 25.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.4 | 26.4 |
| Yards per play | 6.02 | 6.19 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.97 | 6.26 |
| Rushing yards per game | 181.7 | 207.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 227.8 | 220.4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 148.9 | 195.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 241.1 | 235.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14 | 1.08 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.71 | 0.75 |
| Sacks per game | 1.86 | 1.33 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.07 | 1.58 |
| Stat | Abilene Christian | Idaho |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04 | +0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.02 | +0.07 |
| Success rate | 45.4% | 44.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 40.4% | 43.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 12.5% | 14.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.7% | 13.4% |
| Havoc rate | 12.8% | 12.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.5% | 11.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.27 | 4.01 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.12 | 3.40 |
| Average starting field position | opp 9 | opp 10 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 10 | opp 11 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 68.0 | 69.2 |
| Stat | Abilene Christian | Idaho |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06 | +0.08 |
| Passing EPA per play | 0.00 | +0.04 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.00 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.04 | +0.17 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.8% | 47.4% |
| Passing success rate | 45.0% | 40.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 16.1% | 19.0% |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.9% | 30.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.1% | 32.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 43.7% | 40.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 40.4% | 35.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 54.5% | 71.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 64.0% | 52.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Abilene Christian schedule · Idaho schedule · all Week 3 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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