Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Utah 49.2, Idaho 8 at Rice-Eccles Stadium in Week 1. That is a heavy edge: Utah wins about 100% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 41.2 points and 57.1 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Idaho is 0-1, scoring 34 and allowing 38 points per game (-4 per game). Utah has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Idaho plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Utah's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Utah by 19 and Utah by 64 about 80% of the time.
Utah gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Utah by about 39.1. The game is on ESPNU.
Result: Idaho 14, Utah 66. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 10.8 points and the total by 22.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Idaho / Utah) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Utah -32.5 → Utah -38.5 | 56.5 → 60.5 | +5000 / -100000 |
| DraftKings | Utah -32.5 → Utah -38.5 | 56.5 → 60.5 | +5000 / -100000 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Utah win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Utah -41 | 57.1 | 100% |
| Market consensus | Utah -38.5 | 60.5 | 98% |
| Blended projection | Utah -39 | 60.3 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Utah win probability
- model 100% · market (no-vig) 98% · difference +2 pts
- Margin
- model Utah -41.2 · market Utah -38.5 · difference +2.7 pts (Utah view)
- Total
- model 57.1 · market 60.5 · difference -3.4
Model margin is 2.7 pts more toward Utah than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Idaho 8.0, Utah 49.2 | Utah 100%right winner | 10.8 | 22.9 |
| New formula | Idaho 9.9, Utah 48.5 | Utah 99%right winner | 13.4 | 21.7 |
Final: Idaho 14, Utah 66. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Idaho vs Utah: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Idaho | Utah |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.2 | 41.3#4 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.4 | 18.9#18 |
| Yards per play | 6.19 | 6.66#20 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.26 | 5.69#59 |
| Rushing yards per game | 207.4 | 264.1#2 |
| Net passing yards per game | 220.4 | 216.6#82 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 195.8 | 196.4#117 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 235.4 | 187.3#26 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.08 | 0.69#16 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75 | 1.08#68 |
| Sacks per game | 1.33 | 2.54#26 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.58 | 1.08#13 |
| Stat | Idaho | Utah |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06 | +0.19#7 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07 | -0.03#47 |
| Success rate | 44.1% | 48.9%#10 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.1% | 38.1%#26 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.5% | 13.6%#34 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.4% | 13.0%#89 |
| Havoc rate | 12.1% | 14.5%#18 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.5% | 11.5%#51 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.01 | 5.00#6 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.40 | 3.43#24 |
| Average starting field position | opp 10 | own 30#59 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 11 | own 26#7 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.2 | 72.2#12 |
| Stat | Idaho | Utah |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08 | +0.20#6 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04 | +0.18#19 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.13#129 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.17 | -0.19#10 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.4% | 50.9%#7 |
| Passing success rate | 40.5% | 46.4%#22 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.0% | 13.1%#7 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.9% | 40.6%#3 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.4% | 25.3%#18 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.4% | 53.1%#4 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.8% | 36.7%#33 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 71.6% | 79.3%#2 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 52.9% | 56.7%#45 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Idaho schedule · Utah schedule · all Week 1 projections
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