Matchup analysis
Our model projects UC Davis 30, Idaho 30 at Kibbie Dome in Week 11. That is a genuine toss-up: UC Davis wins about 50% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.1 points and 60.8 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
UC Davis is 5-3 against the 90th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32 and allowing 31 points per game (+1 per game). Idaho is 3-5 against the 7th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 29.9 and allowing 37.9 points per game (-8 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UC Davis by 23 and Idaho by 22 about 80% of the time.
Idaho gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. UC Davis is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN+.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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UC Davis vs Idaho: stat comparison
| Stat | UC Davis | Idaho |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 32.0 | 29.9 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.0 | 37.9 |
| Yards per play | 6.58 | 6.17 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.42 | 7.09 |
| Rushing yards per game | 173.3 | 143.9 |
| Net passing yards per game | 264.5 | 272.4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 176.8 | 246.1 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 267.5 | 219.3 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00 | 1.00 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.88 | 0.50 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50 | 1.63 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.63 | 1.88 |
| Stat | UC Davis | Idaho |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04 | +0.18 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.10 | +0.22 |
| Success rate | 42.2% | 44.0% |
| Success rate allowed | 42.0% | 46.4% |
| Explosive play rate | 13.0% | 13.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.2% | 14.3% |
| Havoc rate | 13.6% | 12.2% |
| Havoc allowed | 10.9% | 12.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.39 | 2.06 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.45 | 2.52 |
| Average starting field position | opp 10 | opp 11 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 8 | opp 9 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.5 | 67.5 |
| Stat | UC Davis | Idaho |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.10 | +0.08 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.02 | +0.27 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01 | +0.20 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.16 | +0.23 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.5% | 41.4% |
| Passing success rate | 41.9% | 46.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 16.2% | 14.4% |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.4% | 35.7% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.6% | 33.5% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.3% | 42.2% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 41.0% | 45.0% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 53.8% | 29.8% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 56.9% | 35.1% |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UC Davis schedule · Idaho schedule · all Week 11 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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