Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Montana State 40, Idaho 19 at Kibbie Dome in Week 5. That is a heavy edge: Montana State wins about 92% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 21 points and 58.9 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Montana State is 5-0, scoring 37.6 and allowing 15 points per game (+22.6 per game). Idaho is 0-4, scoring 26 and allowing 42 points per game (-16 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Montana State by 44 and Idaho by 2 about 80% of the time.
Idaho gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Montana State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ESPN.
Result: Montana State 34, Idaho 35. Idaho won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 22 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Montana State / Idaho) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Montana State -15.5 → Montana State -14.5 | 57.5 → 56.5 | -564 / +391 |
| DraftKings | Montana State -15.5 → Montana State -14.5 | 57.5 → 56.5 | -564 / +391 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Idaho win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Montana State -21 | 58.9 | 8% |
| Market consensus | Montana State -14.5 | 56.5 | 19% |
| Blended projection | Montana State -15.5 | 56.9 | 14% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Idaho win probability
- model 8% · market (no-vig) 19% · difference -11 pts
- Margin
- model Montana State -21 · market Montana State -14.5 · difference -6.5 pts (Idaho view)
- Total
- model 58.9 · market 56.5 · difference +2.4
Model margin is 6.5 pts more toward Montana State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Montana State 40.0, Idaho 19.0 | Montana State 92%wrong winner | 22.0 | 10.1 |
| New formula | Montana State 38.8, Idaho 19.7 | Montana State 89%wrong winner | 20.1 | 10.5 |
Final: Montana State 34, Idaho 35. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Montana State vs Idaho: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Montana State | Idaho |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.9 | 25.2 |
| Points allowed per game | 19.0 | 26.4 |
| Yards per play | 7.07 | 6.19 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.48 | 6.26 |
| Rushing yards per game | 243.4 | 207.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 214.0 | 220.4 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 137.9 | 195.8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 241.3 | 235.4 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.47 | 1.08 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.40 | 0.75 |
| Sacks per game | 1.73 | 1.33 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.93 | 1.58 |
| Stat | Montana State | Idaho |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.19 | +0.06 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.01 | +0.07 |
| Success rate | 51.7% | 44.1% |
| Success rate allowed | 39.5% | 43.1% |
| Explosive play rate | 14.3% | 14.5% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.1% | 13.4% |
| Havoc rate | 11.5% | 12.1% |
| Havoc allowed | 12.2% | 11.5% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 1.12 | 4.01 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 1.65 | 3.40 |
| Average starting field position | opp 4 | opp 10 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 4 | opp 11 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.7 | 69.2 |
| Stat | Montana State | Idaho |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12 | +0.08 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.28 | +0.04 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.10 | -0.01 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.06 | +0.17 |
| Rushing success rate | 51.2% | 47.4% |
| Passing success rate | 52.9% | 40.5% |
| Run stuff rate | 15.1% | 19.0% |
| Passing-down success rate | 38.9% | 30.9% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 22.1% | 32.4% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.8% | 40.4% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.7% | 35.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 18.7% | 71.6% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 28.2% | 52.9% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Montana State schedule · Idaho schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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