Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Montana 40.4, Idaho 25.6 at Washington-Grizzly Stadium in Week 7. That is a solid edge: Montana wins about 83% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 14.8 points and 66 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Idaho is 1-5, scoring 27.7 and allowing 40 points per game (-12.3 per game). Montana is 5-2, scoring 38.1 and allowing 26 points per game (+12.1 per game).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Idaho by 8 and Montana by 37 about 80% of the time.
Montana gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Montana by about 12.7. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Idaho 42, Montana 35. Idaho won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 21.8 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Idaho / Montana) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Montana -17.5 → Montana -16.5 | 59.5 → 62.5 | +472 / -720 |
| DraftKings | Montana -17.5 → Montana -16.5 | 59.5 → 62.5 | +472 / -720 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Montana win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Montana -15 | 66.0 | 83% |
| Market consensus | Montana -16.5 | 62.5 | 83% |
| Blended projection | Montana -16.5 | 62.5 | 87% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Montana win probability
- model 83% · market (no-vig) 83% · difference 0 pts
- Margin
- model Montana -14.8 · market Montana -16.5 · difference -1.7 pts (Montana view)
- Total
- model 66.0 · market 62.5 · difference +3.5
Model margin is 1.7 pts more toward Idaho than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Idaho 25.6, Montana 40.4 | Montana 83%wrong winner | 21.8 | 11.0 |
| New formula | Idaho 25.0, Montana 39.2 | Montana 83%wrong winner | 21.2 | 12.8 |
Final: Idaho 42, Montana 35. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Idaho vs Montana: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Idaho | Montana |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.2 | 41.0 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.4 | 25.4 |
| Yards per play | 6.19 | 6.57 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.26 | 6.15 |
| Rushing yards per game | 207.4 | 172.4 |
| Net passing yards per game | 220.4 | 285.5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 195.8 | 149.4 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 235.4 | 264.8 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.08 | 0.57 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.75 | 1.36 |
| Sacks per game | 1.33 | 2.21 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.58 | 1.50 |
| Stat | Idaho | Montana |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.06 | +0.16 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07 | +0.06 |
| Success rate | 44.1% | 45.4% |
| Success rate allowed | 43.1% | 39.5% |
| Explosive play rate | 14.5% | 14.4% |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.4% | 12.3% |
| Havoc rate | 12.1% | 12.2% |
| Havoc allowed | 11.5% | 12.7% |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.01 | 0.00 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.40 | 0.00 |
| Average starting field position | opp 10 | opp 0 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 11 | opp 0 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.2 | 69.6 |
| Stat | Idaho | Montana |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08 | +0.04 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.04 | +0.27 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.01 | +0.02 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.17 | +0.08 |
| Rushing success rate | 47.4% | 43.3% |
| Passing success rate | 40.5% | 48.7% |
| Run stuff rate | 19.0% | 24.3% |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.9% | 35.2% |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.4% | 28.6% |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.4% | 46.1% |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.8% | 44.8% |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 71.6% | 0.0% |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 52.9% | 0.0% |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Idaho schedule · Montana schedule · all Week 7 projections
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