2026 schedule
Montana Grizzlies
2026 season so far
Montana is 5-3 against the 50th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37.8 and allowing 28 points per game (+9.8 per game).
Montana plays below the FBS level, so its projections against FBS opponents include the measured gap between divisions.
Next up: at Eastern Washington in Week 9. We project Montana 40, Eastern Washington 27 — Montana wins 81% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- vs
Southern Utah Thunderbirds
0-1 · SOS #38
Win 28-21
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Montana by 10.1
Total 65.3
DraftKings
MONT -15.5
Total 59.5
Final Montana by 7. Southern Utah beat the spread. 49 points — under the 59.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Montana -15.5 (open Montana -16.5) · O/U 59.5 (open 58.5) · ML +620 / -1080 · Montana 87% no-vig · model vs market -5.4 pts, -12 pct pts (Montana view)
ESPN+ Washington-Grizzly Stadium - vs
Drake Bulldogs
0-2 · SOS #112
Win 45-10
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Montana by 12.9
Total 55.9
DraftKings
MONT -35.5
Total 60.5
Final Montana by 35. Drake beat the spread. 55 points — under the 60.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Montana -35.5 (open Montana -34.5) · O/U 60.5 (open 57.5) · model vs market -22.6 pts (Montana view)
ESPN+ Washington-Grizzly Stadium - vs
Utah Tech Trailblazers
0-3 · SOS #17
Win 35-14
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Montana by 20.2
Total 51.6
DraftKings
MONT -35.5
Total 56.5
Final Montana by 21. Utah Tech beat the spread. 49 points — under the 56.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Montana -37 (open Montana -38.5) · O/U 56.5 · model vs market -16.8 pts (Montana view)
ESPN+ Washington-Grizzly Stadium - at
Oregon State Beavers
1-2 · SOS #86
Loss 17-52
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Oregon State by 31.8
Total 49.4
DraftKings
ORST -17.5
Total 55.5
Final Oregon State by 35. Oregon State beat the spread. 69 points — over the 55.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Oregon State -17.5 (open Oregon State -17.25) · O/U 55.75 (open 53.5) · ML +575 / -875 · Oregon State 86% no-vig · model vs market +14.3 pts, +12 pct pts (Oregon State view)
USA Net Reser Stadium - at
UC Davis Aggies
3-2 · SOS #86
Win 62-22
Week 4
Our number· pregame
UC Davis by 7.6
Total 60
DraftKings
UCD -3
Total 61.5
Final Montana by 40. Montana beat the spread. 84 points — over the 61.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UC Davis -3 (open UC Davis -3.5) · O/U 61.5 (open 60.5) · ML +124 / -154 · UC Davis 58% no-vig · model vs market +4.6 pts, +12 pct pts (UC Davis view)
Game-time weather: 66°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KEDU)ESPN+ UC Davis Health Stadium - vs
Northern Colorado Bears
2-4 · SOS #62
Win 36-14
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Montana by 21.9
Total 55.3
DraftKings
MONT -21.5
Total 58.5
Final Montana by 22. Montana beat the spread. 50 points — under the 58.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Montana -21.5 (open Montana -26.5) · O/U 58.5 (open 57.5) · ML +850 / -1820 · Montana 90% no-vig · model vs market +0.4 pts, +2 pct pts (Montana view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 70°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMSO)ESPN+ Washington-Grizzly Stadium - at
Northern Arizona Lumberjacks
5-2 · SOS #16
Loss 44-49
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Montana by 4.3
Total 60.3
DraftKings
MONT -9.5
Total 64.5
Final Northern Arizona by 5. Northern Arizona beat the spread. 93 points — over the 64.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Montana -9.5 · O/U 64.5 · ML -268 / +208 · Northern Arizona 31% no-vig · model vs market +5.2 pts, +8 pct pts (Northern Arizona view)
Indoors (dome).ESPN+ J. Lawrence Walkup Skydome - vs
Idaho Vandals
2-5 · SOS #7
Loss 35-42
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Montana by 14.8
Total 66
DraftKings
MONT -16.5
Total 62.5
Final Idaho by 7. Idaho beat the spread. 77 points — over the 62.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Montana -16.5 (open Montana -17.5) · O/U 62.5 (open 59.5) · ML +472 / -720 · Montana 83% no-vig · model vs market -1.7 pts, 0 pct pts (Montana view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 64°F, Wind 3 mph WSW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMSO)ESPN+ Washington-Grizzly Stadium - at
Eastern Washington Eagles
2-6 · SOS #11
Sat, Oct 31, 8:00 PM
Week 9
Proj 40-27 · 81%
Our number
Montana by 13
Total 67
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 46°F, Wind 5 mph NE, 26% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:38 AM EDTESPN+ Roos Field - vs
Portland State Vikings
2-6 · SOS #8
Sat, Nov 7, 8:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 45-21 · 94%
Our number
Montana by 24
Total 66
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Washington-Grizzly Stadium - vs
Idaho State Bengals
5-3 · SOS #122
Sun, Nov 15, 3:30 AM
Week 11
Proj 33-28 · 65%
Our number
Montana by 5
Total 61
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Washington-Grizzly Stadium - at
Montana State Bobcats
7-1 · SOS #55
Sat, Nov 21, 7:00 PM
Week 12
Proj 25-38 · 20%
Our number
Montana State by 13
Total 63
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN+ Bobcat Stadium (MT)
Times shown in your local time
Montana Grizzlies stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
-10.3
Adj. offense
25.1
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
35.4
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 37.8 | — |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 28.0 | — |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 7.16 | — |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.66 | — |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 190.8 | — |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 284.6 | — |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 141.5 | — |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 271.1 | — |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.63 | — |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.63 | — |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.50 | — |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.00 | — |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.17 | — |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.07 | — |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 45.9% | — |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 45.1% | — |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 12.7% | — |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 9.9% | — |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 12.8% | — |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 12.1% | — |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 3.50 | — |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 4.15 | — |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | opp 10 | — |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | opp 9 | — |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 66.4 | — |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.17 | — |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.18 | — |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.07 | — |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.07 | — |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 52.2% | — |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 49.0% | — |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 17.7% | — |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 26.9% | — |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 31.6% | — |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 41.1% | — |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 43.2% | — |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 54.1% | — |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 58.9% | — |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.