Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Oregon State 40.6, Montana 8.8 at Reser Stadium in Week 3. That is a heavy edge: Oregon State wins about 98% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 31.8 points and 49.4 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing.
Montana is 3-0, scoring 36 and allowing 15 points per game (+21 per game). Oregon State is 0-2, scoring 22 and allowing 34 points per game (-12 per game).
Montana plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Oregon State's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Oregon State by 9 and Oregon State by 54 about 80% of the time.
Oregon State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Oregon State by about 29.7. The game is on USA Net.
Result: Montana 17, Oregon State 52. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 3.2 points and the total by 19.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Montana / Oregon State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Oregon State -17.25 → Oregon State -17.5 | 53.5 → 55.75 | +575 / -875 |
| DraftKings | Oregon State -17.5 | 52.5 → 55.5 | +575 / -850 |
| Bovada | Oregon State -17 → Oregon State -17.5 | 54.5 → 56 | +575 / -900 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Oregon State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Oregon State -32 | 49.4 | 98% |
| Market consensus | Oregon State -17.5 | 55.8 | 86% |
| Blended projection | Oregon State -20 | 55.7 | 91% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Oregon State win probability
- model 98% · market (no-vig) 86% · difference +12 pts
- Margin
- model Oregon State -31.8 · market Oregon State -17.5 · difference +14.3 pts (Oregon State view)
- Total
- model 49.4 · market 55.75 · difference -6.4
Model margin is 14.3 pts more toward Oregon State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Montana 8.8, Oregon State 40.6 | Oregon State 98%right winner | 3.2 | 19.6 |
| New formula | Montana 21.9, Oregon State 33.5 | Oregon State 77%right winner | 23.4 | 13.5 |
Final: Montana 17, Oregon State 52. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Montana vs Oregon State: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Montana | Oregon State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 36.0 | 22.0#107 |
| Points allowed per game | 15.0 | 34.0#125 |
| Yards per play | 6.69 | 6.06#77 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.22 | 6.24#111 |
| Rushing yards per game | 175.7 | 66.5#138 |
| Net passing yards per game | 259.3 | 370.0#5 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 146.3 | 203.5#120 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 260.7 | 245.5#105 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.67 | 0.50#58 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.00 | 1.00#74 |
| Sacks per game | 1.00 | 3.00#30 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 0.67 | 3.00#124 |
| Stat | Montana | Oregon State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.05 | +0.07#80 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.06 | +0.18#130 |
| Success rate | 40.6% | 35.4%#126 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.0% | 45.1%#119 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.9% | 12.5%#77 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.1% | 13.2%#108 |
| Havoc rate | 11.2% | 14.6%#63 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.8% | 15.3%#109 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 0.00 | 3.70#106 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 0.00 | 5.08#125 |
| Average starting field position | opp 0 | own 23#136 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 0 | own 33#113 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.0 | 72.0#28 |
| Stat | Montana | Oregon State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.11 | -0.17#130 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.01 | +0.16#53 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.04 | +0.09#100 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.08 | +0.30#126 |
| Rushing success rate | 53.6% | 28.9%#135 |
| Passing success rate | 44.1% | 37.7%#102 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.8% | 7.9%#5 |
| Passing-down success rate | 23.9% | 29.8%#87 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 32.9% | 37.3%#122 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 42.1% | 26.7%#129 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.7% | 51.7%#129 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 0.0% | 80.0%#20 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 0.0% | 62.5%#84 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Montana schedule · Oregon State schedule · all Week 3 projections
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