2026 schedule

Oregon State Beavers

5-2SOS #86

2026 season so far

Oregon State is 5-2 against the 86th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 42.7 and allowing 23.1 points per game (+19.6 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings Oregon State ranks 49th of 139 FBS teams overall — 34th on offense and 67th on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.

Next up: at Fresno State in Week 9. We project Oregon State 29, Fresno State 25 — Oregon State wins 58% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

11 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

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#23 Houston Cougars
1-0 · SOS #36
Loss 20-33
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Houston by 13
Total 52.8
DraftKings
HOU -21
Total 50.5
Final Houston by 13. Oregon State beat the spread. 53 points — over the 50.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Houston -20.75 (open Houston -18.5) · O/U 50.5 (open 51.5) · ML +787.5 / -1375 · Houston 89% no-vig · model vs market -7.7 pts, -9 pct pts (Houston view)
ESPNEWS/Disney+ TDECU Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
vs
#13 Texas Tech Red Raiders
2-0 · SOS #74
Loss 24-35
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Texas Tech by 12.9
Total 47.9
DraftKings
TTU -25.5
Total 52.5
Final Texas Tech by 11. Oregon State beat the spread. 59 points — over the 52.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Texas Tech -25.5 (open Texas Tech -27) · O/U 52.5 (open 50.5) · ML -4100 / +1350 · Oregon State 7% no-vig · model vs market +12.6 pts, +13 pct pts (Oregon State view)
CBS Reser Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: hit (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
vs
Montana Grizzlies
3-1 · SOS #50
Win 52-17
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Oregon State by 31.8
Total 49.4
DraftKings
ORST -17.5
Total 55.5
Final Oregon State by 35. Oregon State beat the spread. 69 points — over the 55.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Oregon State -17.5 (open Oregon State -17.25) · O/U 55.75 (open 53.5) · ML +575 / -875 · Oregon State 86% no-vig · model vs market +14.3 pts, +12 pct pts (Oregon State view)
USA Net Reser Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit
High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): missed (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)
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UTEP Miners
1-3 · SOS #76
Win 33-7
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Oregon State by 8
Total 58.2
DraftKings
ORST -11.5
Total 56.5
Final Oregon State by 26. Oregon State beat the spread. 40 points — under the 56.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Oregon State -11.5 (open Oregon State -11.75) · O/U 56.5 (open 54.75) · ML -472.5 / +352.5 · UTEP 21% no-vig · model vs market +3.5 pts, +9 pct pts (UTEP view)
Game-time weather: 79°F, Wind 3 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KELP)
MW+ Sun Bowl
Pregame calls · how each did
Pattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnder · high total, night game: hit · Under · high total, night game → went under 16 of 26 from week 4 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 3 of 9
High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): missed (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)
Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · T. Jones RB · Low rush yds 59 (avg 54) · 77% · 34 ✓J. Legree WR · Low rec yds 97 (avg 159) · 78% · 109 ✓A. Newberry RB · Low rec yds 29 (avg 42) · 74% · 6 ✓
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Colorado State Rams
2-3 · SOS #57
Win 56-26
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Oregon State by 3.2
Total 59
DraftKings
ORST -7
Total 60.5
Final Oregon State by 30. Oregon State beat the spread. 82 points — over the 60.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Oregon State -7 (open Oregon State -4) · O/U 61.5 (open 60.25) · ML -234 / +192.5 · Colorado State 33% no-vig · model vs market +3.8 pts, +9 pct pts (Colorado State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 81°F, Wind 14 mph ENE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KFNL)
USA Net Canvas Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: missed
Flip-flop totals underStudy · Lean Under: Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: Record 307 hits, 231 misses (57% hit rate) over 538 graded gamesUnderdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: missed (n=538) · Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over
J. Legree WR · TD threat 76% · 3 ✓J. Legree WR · Low rec yds 101 (avg 146) · 73% · 156 ✗K. Farrar QB · High pass yds 171 (avg 157) · 60% · 178 ✓
vs
San Diego State Aztecs
2-4 · SOS #69
Win 66-14
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Oregon State by 10
Total 51
DraftKings
ORST -14.5
Total 52.5
Final Oregon State by 52. Oregon State beat the spread. 80 points — over the 52.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Oregon State -14.5 (open Oregon State -14.25) · O/U 52.25 (open 54.75) · ML +465 / -662.5 · Oregon State 83% no-vig · model vs market -4.5 pts, -9 pct pts (Oregon State view)
Game-time weather: Rain, 52°F, Wind 9 mph W.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCVO)
USA Net Reser Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
J. Legree WR · TD threat 79% · 3 ✓J. Legree WR · Low rec yds 103 (avg 148) · 73% · 191 ✗
vs
Washington State Cougars
1-6 · SOS #33
Win 48-30
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Oregon State by 14.3
Total 51.7
DraftKings
ORST -18.5
Total 52.5
Final Oregon State by 18. Washington State beat the spread. 78 points — over the 52.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Oregon State -18.5 (open Oregon State -17.25) · O/U 52.25 (open 52.5) · ML +625 / -975 · Oregon State 87% no-vig · model vs market -4.2 pts, -4 pct pts (Oregon State view)
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 66°F, Wind 6 mph NNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCVO)
USA Net Reser Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded gamesBlowout Alert: missed
3rd-down fav vs red-zone-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 38 hits, 1 misses (97% hit rate) over 39 graded gamesUnderdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: hit (n=39; wk 5–7 21-1) · Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats Unranked 3rd-down fav2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 53 hits, 6 misses (90% hit rate) over 59 graded gamesNeither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: hit (n=59; wk 5–7 26-3) · Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · C. Pinnick QB · Low rush yds 29 (avg 32) · 78% · did not playElite 93-27 (typical 60%) · K. Vorhees RB · Low rush yds 39 (avg 42) · 78% · 16 ✓J. Legree WR · TD threat 82% · 2 ✓
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Fresno State Bulldogs
4-3 · SOS #88
Sun, Nov 1, 3:00 AM
Week 9
Proj 29-25 · 58%
Our number
Oregon State by 4
Total 54
DraftKings
ORST -5.5
Total 58.5
We're 1.5 points higher on Fresno State than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Oregon State -5.5 · O/U 58.5 · ML -223.5 / +185 · Fresno State 34% no-vig · model vs market +1.5 pts, +8 pct pts (Fresno State view)
Kickoff forecast: Light rain likely, 62°F, Wind 5 mph NW, 60% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
USA Net Valley Children's Stadium
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
Pattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded games · Under · high total, night game → went under 16 of 26 from week 4 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 3 of 9
High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded games (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)
Bend-don't-break dog vs fast visitor over2026 combo · Held up Over: Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 25 hits, 4 misses (86% hit rate) over 29 graded games (n=29; wk 5–7 12-1) · Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank Unranked 3rd-down fav2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 53 hits, 6 misses (90% hit rate) over 59 graded games (n=59; wk 5–7 26-3) · Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats
J. Legree WR · TD threat 83%B. Atkinson QB · Low pass yds 293 (avg 372) · 70%
vs
Texas State Bobcats
4-3 · SOS #58
Sun, Nov 8, 3:30 AM
Week 10
Proj 37-34 · 60%
Our number
Oregon State by 3
Total 71
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
CW Reser Stadium
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
High Scoring AlertHigh Scoring Alert: Record 13 hits, 7 misses (65% hit rate) over 20 graded games
J. Legree WR · TD threat 76%
at
#20 Boise State Broncos
6-1 · SOS #45
Sat, Nov 14, 11:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 25-35 · 24%
Our number
Boise State by 10
Total 60
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
USA Net Albertsons Stadium
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
High Scoring AlertHigh Scoring Alert: Record 13 hits, 7 misses (65% hit rate) over 20 graded games
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · A. Newberry RB · Low rush yds 51 (avg 62) · 75%D. Riley RB · TD threat 68%J. Legree WR · TD threat 67%
vs
Utah State Aggies
2-5 · SOS #38
Sun, Nov 22, 3:30 AM
Week 12
Proj 32-20 · 78%
Our number
Oregon State by 12
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
CBSSN Reser Stadium
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games
J. Legree WR · TD threat 80%

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Oregon State Beavers stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

+4.4

49th in FBS

Adj. offense

31.1

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

26.7

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	42.7	4 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	23.1	62 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	7.35	7 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	5.32	51 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	156.1	90 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	381.4	1 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	159.6	79 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	200.4	55 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	0.43	20 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	1.14	37 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	2.57	31 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	1.29	36 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	+0.23	12 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	+0.08	87 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	49.0%	16 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	39.7%	50 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	15.3%	20 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	10.2%	27 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	13.4%	85 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	10.3%	15 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	4.82	19 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	3.78	64 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 28	100 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 31	112 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	73.1	7 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	+0.11	50 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	+0.30	16 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	+0.09	99 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	+0.07	81 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	55.0%	1 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	48.3%	23 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	13.9%	18 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	35.6%	30 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	28.8%	60 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	48.3%	21 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	38.4%	66 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	75.9%	9 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	48.6%	30 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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