Matchup analysis
Our model projects Oregon State 29, Fresno State 25 at Valley Children's Stadium in Week 9. That is a lean: Oregon State wins about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.3 points and 54.1 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Oregon State is 5-2 against the 86th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 42.7 and allowing 23.1 points per game (+19.6 per game). Fresno State is 4-3 against the 88th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27.6 and allowing 20.9 points per game (+6.7 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Oregon State's strong offense (34th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 31.1 points against an average defense) against Fresno State's middle-of-the-pack defense (55th). Oregon State's middle-of-the-pack defense (67th) should limit Fresno State's below-average offense (94th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.3 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Oregon State by 26 and Fresno State by 19 about 80% of the time.
Fresno State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Oregon State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on USA Net.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Oregon State / Fresno State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Oregon State -5.5 | 58.5 | -223.5 / +185 |
| FanDuel | Oregon State -5.5 | 58.5 | -215 / +176 |
| DraftKings | Oregon State -5.5 | 58.5 | -225 / +185 |
| theScore Bet | Oregon State -5.5 | 59.5 | -200 / +170 |
| BetRivers | Oregon State -5.5 | 58.5 | -240 / +188 |
| BetMGM | Oregon State -5.5 | 58.5 | -220 / +180 |
| Pinnacle | Oregon State -5.5 | 58 | -222 / +187 |
| Hard Rock Bet | Oregon State -5.5 | 58.5 | -240 / +190 |
| Bovada | Oregon State -5.5 | 58.5 | -225 / +185 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Fresno State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Oregon State -3.5 | 54.1 | 42% |
| Market consensus | Oregon State -5.5 | 58.5 | 34% |
| Blended projection | Oregon State -5 | 58.4 | 36% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Fresno State win probability
- model 42% · market (no-vig) 34% · difference +8 pts
- Margin
- model Oregon State -3.3 · market Oregon State -5.5 · difference +2.2 pts (Fresno State view)
- Total
- model 54.1 · market 58.5 · difference -4.4
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies Fresno State 33%.
Model margin is 2.2 pts more toward Fresno State than the market.
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Oregon State vs Fresno State: stat comparison
| Stat | Oregon State | Fresno State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 42.7#4 | 27.6#78 |
| Points allowed per game | 23.1#62 | 20.9#44 |
| Yards per play | 7.35#7 | 5.87#83 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.32#51 | 6.01#94 |
| Rushing yards per game | 156.1#90 | 149.7#98 |
| Net passing yards per game | 381.4#1 | 204.4#89 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 159.6#79 | 183.7#105 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 200.4#55 | 211.0#80 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.43#20 | 0.43#21 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.14#37 | 1.43#18 |
| Sacks per game | 2.57#31 | 2.00#72 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.29#36 | 1.86#74 |
| Stat | Oregon State | Fresno State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.23#12 | +0.09#62 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.08#87 | +0.02#61 |
| Success rate | 49.0%#16 | 42.4%#74 |
| Success rate allowed | 39.7%#50 | 41.4%#73 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.3%#20 | 13.5%#53 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.2%#27 | 12.2%#82 |
| Havoc rate | 13.4%#85 | 15.4%#34 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.3%#15 | 13.1%#63 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.82#19 | 4.04#77 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.78#64 | 3.06#11 |
| Average starting field position | own 28#100 | own 33#10 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#112 | own 24#2 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 73.1#7 | 60.3#119 |
| Stat | Oregon State | Fresno State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.11#50 | +0.03#96 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.30#16 | +0.15#48 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.09#99 | +0.04#70 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.07#81 | +0.01#51 |
| Rushing success rate | 55.0%#1 | 39.1%#113 |
| Passing success rate | 48.3%#23 | 44.4%#51 |
| Run stuff rate | 13.9%#18 | 22.9%#135 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.6%#30 | 35.6%#31 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.8%#60 | 29.6%#68 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.3%#21 | 36.1%#108 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.4%#66 | 36.7%#49 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 75.9%#9 | 56.3%#99 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 48.6%#30 | 46.2%#18 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Oregon State schedule · Fresno State schedule · all Week 9 projections
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