2026 schedule

Fresno State Bulldogs

4-3SOS #88

2026 season so far

Fresno State is 4-3 against the 88th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 27.6 and allowing 20.9 points per game (+6.7 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings Fresno State ranks 74th of 139 FBS teams overall — 94th on offense and 55th on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.

Next up: vs Oregon State in Week 9. We project Fresno State 25, Oregon State 29 — Fresno State wins 42% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

at
#14 USC Trojans
2-0 · SOS #26
Loss 0-39
Week 1
Our number· pregame
USC by 12.4
Total 52.8
DraftKings
USC -21.5
Total 51.5
Final USC by 39. USC beat the spread. 39 points — under the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: USC -22 (open USC -23.25) · O/U 51.25 (open 51.5) · ML +1050 / -2650 · USC 92% no-vig · model vs market -9.6 pts, -13 pct pts (USC view)
Fox Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
vs
Sacramento State Hornets
1-2 · SOS #136
Win 49-3
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Fresno State by 8.5
Total 48.9
DraftKings
FRES -17.5
Total 43.5
Final Fresno State by 46. Fresno State beat the spread. 52 points — over the 43.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Fresno State -18 (open Fresno State -18.25) · O/U 43.5 (open 47.25) · ML +625 / -1000 · Fresno State 87% no-vig · model vs market -9.5 pts, -16 pct pts (Fresno State view)
CBSSN Valley Children's Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: hit (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
at
San José State Spartans
2-2 · SOS #121
Win 26-10
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Fresno State by 1.6
Total 49
DraftKings
FRES -4
Total 47.5
Final Fresno State by 16. Fresno State beat the spread. 36 points — under the 47.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Fresno State -4 (open Fresno State -7.25) · O/U 47.5 (open 51.5) · ML -236.5 / +194.5 · San José State 33% no-vig · model vs market +2.4 pts, +13 pct pts (San José State view)
FS1 CEFCU Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed
C. Clark WR · Low catches 5.4 (avg 6.3) · 67% · 5 ✓
vs
Rice Owls
1-3 · SOS #66
Win 38-24
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Fresno State by 18.1
Total 44.7
DraftKings
FRES -12.5
Total 43.5
Final Fresno State by 14. Fresno State beat the spread. 62 points — over the 43.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Fresno State -12.25 (open Fresno State -13.75) · O/U 43.5 (open 44) · ML +405 / -542.5 · Fresno State 81% no-vig · model vs market +5.8 pts, +7 pct pts (Fresno State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 82°F, Wind 3 mph WNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KFAT)
CW Valley Children's Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missed
Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · J. Brown QB · Low rush yds 61 (avg 86) · 75% · 141 ✗Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · T. Byars RB · Low rush yds 45 (avg 49) · 75% · 50 ✗Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · D. Hardeman Jr. RB · Low rush yds 43 (avg 44) · 75% · 39 ✓
at
Washington State Cougars
1-4 · SOS #33
Win 26-6
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Fresno State by 1
Total 47.6
DraftKings
WSU -2.5
Total 44.5
Final Fresno State by 20. Fresno State beat the spread. 32 points — under the 44.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Washington State -2.25 (open Washington State -0.25) · O/U 45 (open 46) · ML +2.5 / -122.5 · Washington State 53% no-vig · model vs market -3.2 pts, -5 pct pts (Washington State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 57°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPUW)
USA Net Martin Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hit
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: hit
Well-protected short dogShort dog · YPP + protection · 2014–25 Underdog getting 2.5 or less, better in yards per play and much better at avoiding sacks: Record 109 hits, 80 misses (58% hit rate) over 189 graded games · 2026: 9-3Short dog · YPP + protection: hit Big-yardage short road dogShort road dog · better YPP · 2014–25 Road underdog getting 2.5 or less, much better in yards per play: Record 125 hits, 94 misses (57% hit rate) over 219 graded games · 2026: 9-5Short road dog · better YPP: hit
J. Freeman WR · Low catches 5.1 (avg 6) · 68% · 7 ✗C. Pinnick QB · High pass yds 184 (avg 161) · 58% · 152 ✗J. Mandal QB · High pass yds 208 (avg 197) · 52% · 245 ✓
vs
#23 Boise State Broncos
5-1 · SOS #45
Loss 31-38
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Boise State by 6.9
Total 50.1
DraftKings
BOIS -8.5
Total 48.5
Final Boise State by 7. Fresno State beat the spread. 69 points — over the 48.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Boise State -9 (open Boise State -6.5) · O/U 48.5 · ML -277.5 / +227.5 · Fresno State 30% no-vig · model vs market +2.1 pts, +3 pct pts (Fresno State view)
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 70°F, Wind 9 mph NW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KFAT)
CW Valley Children's Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
J. Freeman WR · Low catches 5.4 (avg 6.3) · 65% · 4 ✓
at
San Diego State Aztecs
3-4 · SOS #69
Loss 23-26
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Fresno State by 7.6
Total 50.2
DraftKings
FRES -6.5
Total 46.5
Final San Diego State by 3. San Diego State beat the spread. 49 points — over the 46.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Fresno State -6.75 (open Fresno State -8.25) · O/U 46 (open 44.25) · ML -300 / +242.5 · San Diego State 28% no-vig · model vs market -0.8 pts, +3 pct pts (San Diego State view)
Game-time weather: 75°F, Wind 3 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (MVNSD)
CBSSN Snapdragon Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesLow Scoring Alert: missed
Rising-total close dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: Record 179 hits, 115 misses (61% hit rate) over 294 graded gamesSpread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: hit (n=294) · Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open
On-the-number fav vs pass-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank: Record 27 hits, 1 misses (96% hit rate) over 28 graded gamesOur margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank: missed (n=28; wk 5–7 15-0) · Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank Slow-pace tagged dog2026 combo · Weak Underdog wins: Our total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third: Record 21 hits, 16 misses (57% hit rate) over 37 graded gamesOur total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third: hit (n=37; wk 5–7 10-6) · Our total 45-52 + Any pattern tag + Both teams' pace combined: bottom third
J. Mandal QB · High pass yds 231 (avg 209) · 54% · 141 ✗
vs
Oregon State Beavers
5-2 · SOS #86
Sun, Nov 1, 3:00 AM
Week 9
Proj 25-29 · 42%
Our number
Oregon State by 4
Total 54
DraftKings
ORST -5.5
Total 58.5
We're 1.5 points higher on Fresno State than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Oregon State -5.5 · O/U 58.5 · ML -223.5 / +185 · Fresno State 34% no-vig · model vs market +1.5 pts, +8 pct pts (Fresno State view)
Kickoff forecast: Light rain likely, 62°F, Wind 5 mph NW, 60% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
USA Net Valley Children's Stadium
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
Pattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded games · Under · high total, night game → went under 16 of 26 from week 4 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 3 of 9
High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded games (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)
Bend-don't-break dog vs fast visitor over2026 combo · Held up Over: Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 25 hits, 4 misses (86% hit rate) over 29 graded games (n=29; wk 5–7 12-1) · Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank Unranked 3rd-down fav2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 53 hits, 6 misses (90% hit rate) over 59 graded games (n=59; wk 5–7 26-3) · Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats
J. Legree WR · TD threat 83%B. Atkinson QB · Low pass yds 293 (avg 372) · 70%
at
Utah State Aggies
2-5 · SOS #38
Sun, Nov 8, 2:30 AM
Week 10
Proj 23-21 · 55%
Our number
Fresno State by 2
Total 44
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
USA Net Maverik Stadium
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
G. Brosterhous QB · High pass yds 166 (avg 160) · 52%
at
Texas State Bobcats
4-3 · SOS #58
Sat, Nov 14, 9:00 PM
Week 11
Proj 26-32 · 34%
Our number
Texas State by 6
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
CW UFCU Stadium
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
R. Luke RB · Low rush yds 48 (avg 56) · 69%B. Jackson QB · High pass yds 242 (avg 229) · 53%
vs
Colorado State Rams
3-4 · SOS #57
Sun, Nov 22, 12:30 AM
Week 12
Proj 36-25 · 77%
Our number
Fresno State by 11
Total 61
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
CW Valley Children's Stadium
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
H. Hejny QB · Low rush yds 42 (avg 53) · 71%D. Robinson RB · TD threat 66%J. Mandal QB · High pass yds 246 (avg 199) · 63%
vs
TBD
No record
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 34-18 · 83%
Our number
Fresno State by 16
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Valley Children's Stadium

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Fresno State Bulldogs stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

-1.0

73rd in FBS

Adj. offense

24.3

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

25.3

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	27.6	78 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	20.9	44 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	5.87	83 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	6.01	94 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	149.7	98 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	204.4	89 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	183.7	105 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	211.0	80 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	0.43	21 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	1.43	18 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	2.00	72 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	1.86	74 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	+0.09	62 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	+0.02	61 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	42.4%	74 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	41.4%	73 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	13.5%	53 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	12.2%	82 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	15.4%	34 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	13.1%	63 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	4.04	77 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	3.06	11 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 33	10 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 24	2 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	60.3	119 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	+0.03	96 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	+0.15	48 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	+0.04	70 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	+0.01	51 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	39.1%	113 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	44.4%	51 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	22.9%	135 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	35.6%	31 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	29.6%	68 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	36.1%	108 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	36.7%	49 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	56.3%	99 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	46.2%	18 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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