Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected USC 32.6, Fresno State 20.2 at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Week 1. That is a solid edge: USC wins about 79% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12.4 points and 52.8 combined points.
Fresno State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. USC (No. 14) is 1-0, scoring 42 and allowing 26 points per game (+16 per game).
USC's strong defense (16th) should limit Fresno State's below-average offense (94th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.3 points against an average defense). The most lopsided unit battle: USC's elite offense (10th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 38.3 points against an average defense) against Fresno State's middle-of-the-pack defense (55th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Fresno State by 10 and USC by 35 about 80% of the time.
USC gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour USC by about 10.3. The game is on Fox.
Result: Fresno State 0, USC 39. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 26.6 points and the total by 13.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Fresno State / USC) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | USC -23.25 → USC -22 | 51.5 → 51.25 | +1050 / -2650 |
| Bovada | USC -23 → USC -22.5 | 51.5 → 51 | +1100 / -3500 |
| DraftKings | USC -23.5 → USC -21.5 | 51.5 | +1000 / -1800 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | USC win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | USC -12.5 | 52.8 | 79% |
| Market consensus | USC -22 | 51.3 | 92% |
| Blended projection | USC -20.5 | 52.0 | 92% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- USC win probability
- model 79% · market (no-vig) 92% · difference -13 pts
- Margin
- model USC -12.4 · market USC -22 · difference -9.6 pts (USC view)
- Total
- model 52.8 · market 51.25 · difference +1.5
Model margin is 9.6 pts more toward Fresno State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Fresno State 20.2, USC 32.6 | USC 79%right winner | 26.6 | 13.8 |
| New formula | Fresno State 13.6, USC 43.1 | USC 96%right winner | 9.5 | 17.7 |
Final: Fresno State 0, USC 39. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Fresno State vs USC: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Fresno State | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 25.8#82 | 35.8#13 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.8#16 | 23.0#51 |
| Yards per play | 5.62#89 | 7.32#4 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.17#22 | 5.88#75 |
| Rushing yards per game | 180.0#56 | 178.4#59 |
| Net passing yards per game | 189.5#104 | 289.8#9 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 153.3#52 | 153.8#54 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 171.4#8 | 205.7#46 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.31#105 | 1.23#97 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.62#10 | 1.23#43 |
| Sacks per game | 1.77#89 | 2.31#40 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.46#35 | 1.00#9 |
| Stat | Fresno State | USC |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.05#115 | +0.21#3 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.06#33 | +0.01#75 |
| Success rate | 40.3%#100 | 48.7%#11 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.7%#30 | 45.0%#115 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.4%#99 | 17.0%#4 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.1%#38 | 12.2%#65 |
| Havoc rate | 14.3%#23 | 11.5%#99 |
| Havoc allowed | 14.3%#118 | 10.0%#16 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.67#103 | 4.68#12 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.47#27 | 3.92#74 |
| Average starting field position | own 34#7 | own 28#120 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#61 | own 28#23 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.7#76 | 63.9#98 |
| Stat | Fresno State | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.08#120 | +0.04#64 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.02#91 | +0.38#2 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.02#51 | +0.05#103 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.11#26 | -0.02#55 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.7%#120 | 45.6%#46 |
| Passing success rate | 40.3%#80 | 51.5%#4 |
| Run stuff rate | 20.2%#103 | 16.0%#32 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.9%#67 | 36.8%#15 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 27.0%#25 | 33.2%#112 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 39.4%#88 | 53.4%#3 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 38.8%#51 | 43.8%#104 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 44.0%#133 | 68.9%#28 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 64.1%#98 | 64.1%#97 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Fresno State schedule · USC schedule · all Week 1 projections
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