2026 schedule

USC Trojans

6-2SOS #26

2026 season so far

USC is 6-2 against the 26th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 32.8 and allowing 25 points per game (+7.8 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings USC ranks 23rd of 139 FBS teams overall — 12th on offense and 36th on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.

Next up: vs Ohio State in Week 9. We project USC 22, Ohio State 35 — USC wins 19% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

vs
San José State Spartans
0-1 · SOS #121
Win 42-26
Week 1
Our number· pregame
USC by 19.6
Total 59.6
DraftKings
USC -37.5
Total 61.5
Final USC by 16. San José State beat the spread. 68 points — over the 61.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: USC -37.25 (open USC -35.5) · O/U 61 (open 57.5) · ML +4250 / -100000 · USC 98% no-vig · model vs market -17.6 pts, -8 pct pts (USC view)
NBC Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: hit (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
vs
Fresno State Bulldogs
0-1 · SOS #88
Win 39-0
Week 1
Our number· pregame
USC by 12.4
Total 52.8
DraftKings
USC -21.5
Total 51.5
Final USC by 39. USC beat the spread. 39 points — under the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: USC -22 (open USC -23.25) · O/U 51.25 (open 51.5) · ML +1050 / -2650 · USC 92% no-vig · model vs market -9.6 pts, -13 pct pts (USC view)
Fox Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
vs
Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns
1-1 · SOS #110
Win 49-30
Week 2
Our number· pregame
USC by 17.8
Total 54.4
DraftKings
USC -30.5
Total 58.5
Final USC by 19. Louisiana beat the spread. 79 points — over the 58.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: USC -30.75 (open USC -29.75) · O/U 58.5 (open 61.75) · ML +1700 / -7500 · USC 95% no-vig · model vs market -12.9 pts, -7 pct pts (USC view)
BTN Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hit
at
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
0-3 · SOS #51
Win 42-35
Week 3
Our number· pregame
USC by 10.2
Total 57
DraftKings
USC -21
Total 59.5
Final USC by 7. Rutgers beat the spread. 77 points — over the 59.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: USC -21 (open USC -24.5) · O/U 59 (open 57.5) · ML -2700 / +1100 · Rutgers 8% no-vig · model vs market +10.8 pts, +17 pct pts (Rutgers view)
CBS SHI Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): hit (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)
T. Mosley WR · Low rec yds 60 (avg 85) · 75% · did not playM. Bowman TE · Low catches 3.2 (avg 4) · 68% · 3 ✓K. Dixon-Wyatt WR · Low catches 3.6 (avg 4.3) · 67% · 5 ✗
vs
#20 Oregon Ducks
3-1 · SOS #20
Loss 27-41
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Oregon by 2.4
Total 66.2
DraftKings
ORE -3.5
Total 60.5
Final Oregon by 14. Oregon beat the spread. 68 points — over the 60.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Oregon -3.5 (open Oregon -4) · O/U 60.5 (open 60.25) · ML -162.5 / +147 · USC 40% no-vig · model vs market +1.1 pts, +4 pct pts (USC view)
Game-time weather: 84°F, Wind 1 mph SW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (FHMC1)
NBC Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: hit
High Scoring AlertHigh Scoring Alert: Record 13 hits, 7 misses (65% hit rate) over 20 graded gamesHigh Scoring Alert: hitUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: missed
Rising-total close dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: Record 179 hits, 115 misses (61% hit rate) over 294 graded gamesSpread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: missed (n=294) · Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open
J. Davison RB · Low rush yds 53 (avg 65) · 69% · 66 ✗E. Stewart WR · Low catches 4.5 (avg 5) · 66% · 7 ✗
vs
Washington Huskies
3-2 · SOS #65
Win 25-21
Week 5
Our number· pregame
USC by 10
Total 57.4
DraftKings
USC -7.5
Total 58.5
Final USC by 4. Washington beat the spread. 46 points — under the 58.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: USC -8.25 (open USC -10) · O/U 58.25 (open 56.5) · ML +277.5 / -360 · USC 75% no-vig · model vs market +1.8 pts, -0 pct pts (USC view)
Game-time weather: 94°F, Wind 2 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (FHMC1)
NBC Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Pregame calls · how each did
Pattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnder · high total, night game: hit · Under · high total, night game → went under 16 of 26 from week 4 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 3 of 9
High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): hit (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)Slow-pace scoring dog vs reeling favDog 24+ pts, slow, fav lost · 2014–25 Underdog expected to score 24+, favorite lost its last game, both teams play slow: Record 81 hits, 70 misses (54% hit rate) over 151 graded games · 2026: 13-13Dog 24+ pts, slow, fav lost: missed
D. Williams Jr. QB · Low rush yds 34 (avg 41) · 69% · 26 ✓D. Roebuck WR · Low catches 6.1 (avg 7.5) · 67% · 5 ✓
at
Penn State Nittany Lions
3-3 · SOS #46
Win 31-23
Week 6
Our number· pregame
USC by 3.6
Total 56.2
DraftKings
USC -1.5
Total 54.5
Final USC by 8. USC beat the spread. 54 points — under the 54.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: USC -0.25 (open Penn State -0.25) · O/U 54.5 (open 56.25) · ML -115 / -105 · Penn State 49% no-vig · model vs market -3.3 pts, -8 pct pts (Penn State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 61°F, Wind 3 mph NE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KUNV)
NBC Beaver Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hit
Flip-flop totals underStudy · Lean Under: Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: Record 307 hits, 231 misses (57% hit rate) over 538 graded gamesUnderdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: hit (n=538) · Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over
at
Wisconsin Badgers
5-2 · SOS #22
Loss 7-24
Week 8
Our number· pregame
USC by 6.3
Total 50.9
DraftKings
USC -1.5
Total 50.5
Final Wisconsin by 17. Wisconsin beat the spread. 31 points — under the 50.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: USC -2.5 · O/U 50.5 · ML -135 / +108 · Wisconsin 46% no-vig · model vs market -3.8 pts, -12 pct pts (Wisconsin view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 67°F, Wind 10 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KC29)
NBC Camp Randall Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Bend-don't-break dog vs fast visitor over2026 combo · Held up Over: Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 25 hits, 4 misses (86% hit rate) over 29 graded gamesAway team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank: missed (n=29; wk 5–7 12-1) · Away team pace: top-third FBS rank + Underdog points per opportunity allowed: top-third FBS rank
T. Mosley WR · Low rec yds 67 (avg 92) · 74% · 45 ✓A. Sama III RB · Low rush yds 48 (avg 56) · 68% · 71 ✗T. Henry WR · Low catches 3.9 (avg 4.5) · 66% · 1 ✓
vs
#2 Ohio State Buckeyes
6-1 · SOS #19
Sat, Oct 31, 11:30 PM
Week 9
Proj 22-35 · 19%
Our number
Ohio State by 13
Total 57
DraftKings
OSU -6.5
Total 51.5
We're 6.5 points higher on Ohio State than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Ohio State -6.5 · O/U 51.5 · ML -247.5 / +203 · USC 32% no-vig · model vs market -6.5 pts, -13 pct pts (USC view)
Kickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 66°F, Wind 5 mph SSW, 51% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
NBC Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Finishing big-yardage dog vs mid-total fav2026 combo · Held up Underdog covers: Favorite implied 24-30.5 + Underdog points per scoring opportunity: top-third FBS rank + Underdog yards per play: top-third FBS rank: Record 22 hits, 4 misses (85% hit rate) over 26 graded games (n=26; wk 5–7 11-1) · Favorite implied 24-30.5 + Underdog points per scoring opportunity: top-third FBS rank + Underdog yards per play: top-third FBS rank
J. Smith WR · TD threat 73%J. Maiava QB · Low pass yds 216 (avg 288) · 70%J. Sayin QB · Low pass yds 229 (avg 287) · 67%
at
#4 Indiana Hoosiers
7-1 · SOS #32
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 20-33 · 19%
Our number
Indiana by 13
Total 53
DraftKings
IU -10
Total 58.5
We're 3 points higher on Indiana than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Indiana -10 · O/U 58.5 · ML +350 / -455 · Indiana 79% no-vig · model vs market +3.0 pts, +2 pct pts (Indiana view)
Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
Pattern · Watching Under · high total, close game, our total below the book: Record 6 hits, 5 misses (55% hit rate) over 11 graded games · Under · high total, close game, our total below the book → went under 6 of 11 since Oct 17 · base 49%
High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded games (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · K. Miller RB · Low rush yds 53 (avg 75) · 75%
vs
Maryland Terrapins
2-5 · SOS #40
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 39-22 · 88%
Our number
USC by 17
Total 61
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · D. Williams RB · Low rush yds 58 (avg 70) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · I. Howard RB · Low rush yds 26 (avg 32) · 78%
at
#7 UCLA Bruins
7-0 · SOS #42
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 28-27 · 53%
Our number
USC by 1
Total 55
DraftKings
USC -10.5
Total 55.5
We're 9.5 points higher on UCLA than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: USC -10.5 · O/U 55.5 · ML -470 / +360 · UCLA 21% no-vig · model vs market +9.5 pts, +26 pct pts (UCLA view)
Rose Bowl
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
Pattern · Watching Under · high total, close game, our total below the book: Record 6 hits, 5 misses (55% hit rate) over 11 graded games · Under · high total, close game, our total below the book → went under 6 of 11 since Oct 17 · base 49%
Bounce-back home dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: Record 284 hits, 203 misses (58% hit rate) over 487 graded games (n=487) · Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game
3rd-down fav vs red-zone-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 38 hits, 1 misses (97% hit rate) over 39 graded games (n=39; wk 5–7 21-1) · Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · A. Woods RB · Low rush yds 61 (avg 66) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · W. Knight RB · Low rush yds 84 (avg 90) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · J. Thomas RB · Low rush yds 36 (avg 34) · 78%

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USC Trojans stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

+12.1

23rd in FBS

Adj. offense

34.8

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

22.7

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	32.8	44 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	25.0	77 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	6.37	45 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	5.81	83 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	143.6	106 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	301.4	9 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	123.8	26 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	212.0	83 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	1.00	85 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	0.63	102 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	1.75	91 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	1.38	41 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	+0.22	14 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	+0.09	99 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	50.6%	7 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	40.6%	65 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	12.9%	66 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	10.9%	42 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	12.7%	103 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	10.7%	20 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	4.48	36 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	4.83	132 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 28	107 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 28	44 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	69.9	25 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	+0.04	89 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	+0.37	6 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	+0.02	61 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	+0.17	114 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	45.7%	55 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	54.6%	3 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	19.8%	110 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	43.4%	6 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	32.6%	107 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	51.0%	15 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	35.6%	38 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	66.7%	42 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	66.7%	105 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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