Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Oregon 34.3, USC 31.9 at Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum in Week 4. That is a genuine toss-up: Oregon wins about 56% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 2.4 points and 66.1 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans high scoring.
Oregon (No. 20) is 2-1, scoring 49.7 and allowing 22 points per game (+27.7 per game). USC (No. 12) is 4-0, scoring 43 and allowing 22.8 points per game (+20.2 per game).
Oregon's elite offense (3rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 41.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over USC's strong defense (32nd); that mismatch is where most of Oregon's projected points come from. USC's elite offense (10th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 37.1 points against an average defense) meets Oregon's elite defense (10th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points USC puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Oregon by 25 and USC by 20 about 80% of the time.
USC gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Oregon is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on NBC.
Result: Oregon 41, USC 27. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 11.6 points and the total by 1.9.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Oregon / USC) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Oregon -4 → Oregon -3.5 | 60.25 → 60.5 | -162.5 / +147 |
| DraftKings | Oregon -5.5 → Oregon -3.5 | 58.5 → 60.5 | -185 / +154 |
| Bovada | Oregon -2.5 → Oregon -3.5 | 62 → 60.5 | -140 / +140 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | USC win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Oregon -2.5 | 66.1 | 44% |
| Market consensus | Oregon -3.5 | 60.5 | 40% |
| Blended projection | Oregon -3.5 | 60.8 | 41% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- USC win probability
- model 44% · market (no-vig) 40% · difference +4 pts
- Margin
- model Oregon -2.4 · market Oregon -3.5 · difference +1.1 pts (USC view)
- Total
- model 66.1 · market 60.5 · difference +5.6
Model margin is 1.1 pts more toward USC than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Oregon 34.3, USC 31.9 | Oregon 56%right winner | 11.6 | 1.9 |
| New formula | Oregon 35.0, USC 31.1 | Oregon 60%right winner | 10.1 | 1.8 |
Final: Oregon 41, USC 27. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Oregon vs USC: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Oregon | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 49.7#5 | 43.0#21 |
| Points allowed per game | 22.0#70 | 22.8#73 |
| Yards per play | 7.06#29 | 7.22#21 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.55#79 | 6.04#105 |
| Rushing yards per game | 174.0#72 | 179.3#67 |
| Net passing yards per game | 331.7#9 | 322.3#13 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 121.3#47 | 122.3#48 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 226.7#94 | 208.5#76 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.00#6 | 1.00#84 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.67#20 | 1.00#61 |
| Sacks per game | 1.67#77 | 1.50#93 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.33#105 | 0.75#33 |
| Stat | Oregon | USC |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.12#58 | +0.27#7 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.09#20 | +0.07#89 |
| Success rate | 44.1%#68 | 52.8%#6 |
| Success rate allowed | 38.0%#43 | 40.3%#71 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.5%#39 | 14.8%#32 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.0%#38 | 11.2%#65 |
| Havoc rate | 15.7%#44 | 12.5%#103 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.5%#38 | 8.2%#7 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.76#27 | 4.66#35 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.83#67 | 4.93#128 |
| Average starting field position | own 37#9 | own 31#57 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#64 | own 25#22 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.7#24 | 69.5#36 |
| Stat | Oregon | USC |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.14#36 | +0.08#65 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.09#78 | +0.48#4 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.00#66 | +0.00#68 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.16#16 | +0.13#97 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.9%#51 | 51.3%#20 |
| Passing success rate | 44.2%#67 | 63.4%#3 |
| Run stuff rate | 11.5%#10 | 17.9%#85 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.0%#67 | 41.3%#11 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 22.4%#18 | 34.4%#110 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.0%#28 | 62.2%#7 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 23.8%#6 | 39.0%#74 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 81.6%#11 | 66.1%#67 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 45.7%#28 | 67.5%#103 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Oregon schedule · USC schedule · all Week 4 projections
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