2026 schedule
Oregon Ducks
2026 season so far
Oregon is 4-3 against the 20th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 33.1 and allowing 20.7 points per game (+12.4 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings Oregon ranks 8th of 139 FBS teams overall — 8th on offense and 10th on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.
Next up: vs Northwestern in Week 9. We project Oregon 33, Northwestern 18 — Oregon wins 84% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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- vs
Boise State Broncos
0-1 · SOS #45
Win 34-27
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Oregon by 14.1
Total 56.1
DraftKings
ORE -24.5
Total 53.5
Final Oregon by 7. Boise State beat the spread. 61 points — over the 53.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Oregon -24.75 (open Oregon -24.5) · O/U 52.5 (open 53.5) · ML +1200 / -3050 · Oregon 93% no-vig · model vs market -10.6 pts, -10 pct pts (Oregon view)
CBS Autzen Stadium - at
Oklahoma State Cowboys
1-1 · SOS #59
Loss 31-39
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Oregon by 15.4
Total 49.8
DraftKings
ORE -24.5
Total 55.5
Final Oklahoma State by 8. Oklahoma State beat the spread. 70 points — over the 55.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Oregon -24.25 (open Oregon -20.5) · O/U 55.5 (open 59) · ML -2150 / +1050 · Oklahoma State 8% no-vig · model vs market +8.8 pts, +7 pct pts (Oklahoma State view)
ESPNEWS/Disney+ Boone Pickens Stadium - vs
Portland State Vikings
0-4 · SOS #8
Win 84-0
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Oregon by 50.1
Total 60.3
DraftKings
ORE -58.5
Total 71.5
Final Oregon by 84. Oregon beat the spread. 84 points — over the 71.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Oregon -58.5 (open Oregon -57.5) · O/U 71.5 (open 67.25) · model vs market -8.4 pts (Oregon view)
BTN Autzen Stadium - at
#12 USC Trojans
4-1 · SOS #25
Win 41-27
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Oregon by 2.4
Total 66.2
DraftKings
ORE -3.5
Total 60.5
Final Oregon by 14. Oregon beat the spread. 68 points — over the 60.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Oregon -3.5 (open Oregon -4) · O/U 60.5 (open 60.25) · ML -162.5 / +147 · USC 40% no-vig · model vs market +1.1 pts, +4 pct pts (USC view)
Game-time weather: 84°F, Wind 1 mph SW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (FHMC1)NBC Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum - vs
#21 UCLA Bruins
5-0 · SOS #42
Loss 15-17
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Oregon by 18.3
Total 62.1
DraftKings
ORE -10
Total 57.5
Final UCLA by 2. UCLA beat the spread. 32 points — under the 57.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Oregon -10.25 (open Oregon -12) · O/U 57.75 (open 60) · ML +337.5 / -447.5 · Oregon 78% no-vig · model vs market +8.1 pts, +10 pct pts (Oregon view)
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 57°F, Wind 6 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KEUG)CBS Autzen Stadium - vs
Nebraska Cornhuskers
5-2 · SOS #32
Win 17-14
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Oregon by 11.9
Total 56.5
DraftKings
ORE -6.5
Total 50.5
Final Oregon by 3. Nebraska beat the spread. 31 points — under the 50.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Oregon -6.75 (open Oregon -14) · O/U 51 (open 52) · ML +200 / -240 · Oregon 68% no-vig · model vs market +5.2 pts, +10 pct pts (Oregon view)
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 52°F, Wind 8 mph NNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KEUG)Fox Autzen Stadium - at
Illinois Fighting Illini
4-3 · SOS #26
Loss 10-21
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Oregon by 15.9
Total 57.5
DraftKings
ORE -10.5
Total 49.5
Final Illinois by 11. Illinois beat the spread. 31 points — under the 49.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Oregon -10.5 · O/U 49.5 · ML -425 / +330 · Illinois 22% no-vig · model vs market -5.4 pts, -7 pct pts (Illinois view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 3 mph S.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCMI)BTN Gies Memorial Stadium - vs
#20 Northwestern Wildcats
6-1 · SOS #43
Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM
Week 9
Proj 33-18 · 84%
Our number
Oregon by 15
Total 51
DraftKings
ORE -3.5
Total 47.5
We're 11.5 points higher on Oregon than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Oregon -3.5 · O/U 47.5 · ML +145 / -172.5 · Oregon 61% no-vig · model vs market +11.5 pts, +24 pct pts (Oregon view)
Kickoff forecast: Mostly sunny, 48°F, Wind calm, 4% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDTPeacock Autzen Stadium - at
#2 Ohio State Buckeyes
6-1 · SOS #19
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
Week 10
Proj 21-31 · 25%
Our number
Ohio State by 10
Total 52
DraftKings
OSU -6
Total 52.5
We're 4 points higher on Ohio State than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Ohio State -6 · O/U 52.5 · ML +210 / -258 · Ohio State 69% no-vig · model vs market +4.0 pts, +6 pct pts (Ohio State view)
Ohio Stadium - vs
Michigan Wolverines
4-3 · SOS #15
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 30-16 · 83%
Our number
Oregon by 14
Total 46
DraftKings
ORE -13.5
Total 53.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Oregon -13.5 · O/U 53.5 · ML +440 / -600 · Oregon 82% no-vig · model vs market +0.5 pts, +0 pct pts (Oregon view)
Autzen Stadium - at
Michigan State Spartans
2-6 · SOS #7
Sat, Nov 21, 1:00 AM
Week 12
Proj 35-14 · 91%
Our number
Oregon by 21
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Fox Spartan Stadium - vs
Washington Huskies
4-3 · SOS #65
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 34-19 · 84%
Our number
Oregon by 15
Total 53
DraftKings
ORE -15.5
Total 54.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Oregon -15.5 · O/U 54.5 · ML +500 / -700 · Oregon 84% no-vig · model vs market -0.5 pts, -0 pct pts (Oregon view)
Autzen Stadium
Times shown in your local time
Oregon Ducks stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
+20.3
8th in FBS
Adj. offense
36.4
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
16.1
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 33.1 | 41 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 20.7 | 40 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.96 | 74 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 5.31 | 49 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 151.9 | 97 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 264.4 | 31 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 146.9 | 60 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 199.6 | 53 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.86 | 58 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.43 | 13 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.14 | 59 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 1.57 | 52 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.03 | 100 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | -0.08 | 15 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 41.1% | 97 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 36.6% | 23 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 12.5% | 71 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 10.4% | 32 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 15.7% | 28 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 13.6% | 80 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.84 | 17 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.85 | 74 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 32 | 28 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 29 | 67 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 69.9 | 24 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.07 | 79 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.01 | 101 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | -0.01 | 50 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.16 | 9 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 44.6% | 69 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 38.5% | 105 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 15.5% | 39 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 27.7% | 107 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 27.5% | 43 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 36.1% | 107 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 30.4% | 10 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 72.4% | 23 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 47.8% | 27 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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