Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Oregon 40.2, UCLA 21.9 at Autzen Stadium in Week 6. That is a heavy edge: Oregon wins about 88% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 18.3 points and 62.1 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, leans high scoring.
UCLA (No. 21) is 4-0, scoring 44.8 and allowing 18.8 points per game (+26 per game). Oregon (No. 13) is 3-1, scoring 47.5 and allowing 23.3 points per game (+24.2 per game).
Expect UCLA to find it hard going: Oregon's elite defense (10th) outranks UCLA's strong offense (26th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 32.4 points against an average defense). Oregon's elite offense (5th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 41.8 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over UCLA's middle-of-the-pack defense (43rd); that mismatch is where most of Oregon's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between UCLA by 4 and Oregon by 41 about 80% of the time.
Oregon gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Oregon by about 16.2. The game is on CBS.
Result: UCLA 17, Oregon 15. UCLA won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 20.3 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (UCLA / Oregon) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Oregon -12 → Oregon -10.25 | 60 → 57.75 | +337.5 / -447.5 |
| DraftKings | Oregon -12.5 → Oregon -10 | 60.5 → 57.5 | +330 / -425 |
| Bovada | Oregon -11.5 → Oregon -10.5 | 59.5 → 58 | +345 / -470 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Oregon win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Oregon -18.5 | 62.1 | 88% |
| Market consensus | Oregon -10.5 | 57.8 | 78% |
| Blended projection | Oregon -11.5 | 58.2 | 79% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Oregon win probability
- model 88% · market (no-vig) 78% · difference +10 pts
- Margin
- model Oregon -18.3 · market Oregon -10.25 · difference +8.1 pts (Oregon view)
- Total
- model 62.1 · market 57.75 · difference +4.4
Model margin is 8.1 pts more toward Oregon than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | UCLA 21.9, Oregon 40.2 | Oregon 88%wrong winner | 20.3 | 30.1 |
| New formula | UCLA 22.3, Oregon 39.9 | Oregon 88%wrong winner | 19.5 | 30.2 |
Final: UCLA 17, Oregon 15. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
UCLA vs Oregon: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | UCLA | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 44.8#7 | 47.5#4 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.8#39 | 23.3#68 |
| Yards per play | 7.21#13 | 7.13#16 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.40#63 | 5.67#79 |
| Rushing yards per game | 285.3#5 | 162.8#77 |
| Net passing yards per game | 181.5#106 | 340.3#6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 108.3#18 | 123.5#34 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 256.5#123 | 249.0#116 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75#59 | 0.00#2 |
| Takeaways per game | 2.50#2 | 1.50#19 |
| Sacks per game | 2.00#73 | 1.75#84 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50#61 | 1.75#74 |
| Stat | UCLA | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.20#25 | +0.24#11 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.05#24 | -0.01#48 |
| Success rate | 48.4%#24 | 45.1%#48 |
| Success rate allowed | 36.1%#22 | 40.0%#64 |
| Explosive play rate | 16.2%#15 | 15.9%#18 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.3%#89 | 10.8%#42 |
| Havoc rate | 16.5%#23 | 15.4%#38 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.2%#79 | 10.2%#15 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.32#57 | 5.50#3 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.23#100 | 3.91#78 |
| Average starting field position | own 36#4 | own 35#13 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 23#2 | own 28#57 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.8#80 | 70.5#26 |
| Stat | UCLA | Oregon |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.36#1 | +0.12#48 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.01#99 | +0.33#11 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.02#45 | +0.04#75 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.10#27 | -0.06#36 |
| Rushing success rate | 59.7%#1 | 44.8%#69 |
| Passing success rate | 37.9%#108 | 45.4%#47 |
| Run stuff rate | 11.5%#8 | 11.6%#10 |
| Passing-down success rate | 34.8%#45 | 34.3%#48 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.0%#28 | 31.5%#91 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 50.0%#25 | 50.0%#22 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.1%#43 | 22.6%#1 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 70.0%#37 | 85.7%#2 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 51.8%#46 | 43.8%#18 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: UCLA schedule · Oregon schedule · all Week 6 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.