2026 schedule

UCLA Bruins

7-0SOS #29

2026 season so far

UCLA (No. 7) is 7-0 against the 29th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 34.4 and allowing 15.3 points per game (+19.1 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings UCLA ranks 30th of 139 FBS teams overall — 44th on offense and 24th on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.

Next up: vs Nevada in Week 9. We project UCLA 34, Nevada 14 — UCLA wins 90% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

at
California Golden Bears
0-1 · SOS #47
Win 45-24
Week 1
Our number· pregame
California by 3.9
Total 54.5
DraftKings
UCLA -2.5
Total 53.5
Final UCLA by 21. UCLA beat the spread. 69 points — over the 53.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UCLA -2.5 (open California -2.5) · O/U 53.5 · ML -136 / +115 · California 45% no-vig · model vs market +6.4 pts, +15 pct pts (California view)
ESPN California Memorial Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed
vs
San Diego State Aztecs
1-1 · SOS #40
Win 28-10
Week 2
Our number· pregame
UCLA by 1.7
Total 49.7
DraftKings
UCLA -13.5
Total 53.5
Final UCLA by 18. UCLA beat the spread. 38 points — under the 53.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UCLA -13.5 (open UCLA -10) · O/U 53.5 (open 53) · ML +377.5 / -512.5 · UCLA 80% no-vig · model vs market -11.8 pts, -26 pct pts (UCLA view)
BTN Rose Bowl
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed
vs
Purdue Boilermakers
1-2 · SOS #12
Win 52-38
Week 3
Our number· pregame
UCLA by 9.8
Total 57.8
DraftKings
UCLA -13.5
Total 53.5
Final UCLA by 14. UCLA beat the spread. 90 points — over the 53.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UCLA -13.5 (open UCLA -14.75) · O/U 53 (open 53.25) · ML +482.5 / -700 · UCLA 83% no-vig · model vs market -3.7 pts, -10 pct pts (UCLA view)
BTN Rose Bowl
at
Maryland Terrapins
2-2 · SOS #43
Win 54-3
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Maryland by 7.8
Total 58.4
DraftKings
UCLA -2.5
Total 55.5
Final UCLA by 51. UCLA beat the spread. 57 points — over the 55.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UCLA -2.5 (open UCLA -1.75) · O/U 55.75 (open 54.75) · ML -133.5 / +112.5 · Maryland 45% no-vig · model vs market +10.3 pts, +24 pct pts (Maryland view)
Game-time weather: Light rain, 59°F, Wind 8 mph NNW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KCGS)
BTN SECU Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
High Scoring AlertHigh Scoring Alert: Record 13 hits, 7 misses (65% hit rate) over 20 graded gamesHigh Scoring Alert: hit
Rising-total close dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: Record 179 hits, 115 misses (61% hit rate) over 294 graded gamesSpread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: missed (n=294) · Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): missed (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)
W. Knight RB · Low rush yds 75 (avg 115) · 79% · 100 ✓N. Iamaleava QB · Low rush yds 32 (avg 47) · 75% · 2 ✓A. Woods RB · Low rush yds 53 (avg 76) · 75% · 41 ✓
at
#13 Oregon Ducks
3-2 · SOS #11
Win 17-15
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Oregon by 18.3
Total 62.1
DraftKings
ORE -10
Total 57.5
Final UCLA by 2. UCLA beat the spread. 32 points — under the 57.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Oregon -10.25 (open Oregon -12) · O/U 57.75 (open 60) · ML +337.5 / -447.5 · Oregon 78% no-vig · model vs market +8.1 pts, +10 pct pts (Oregon view)
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 57°F, Wind 6 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KEUG)
CBS Autzen Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: missedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: missed
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded gamesUpset Watch: hit
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · W. Knight RB · Low rush yds 85 (avg 111) · 75% · 103 ✓Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · A. Woods RB · Low rush yds 55 (avg 67) · 75% · 39 ✓Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · N. Iamaleava QB · Low rush yds 29 (avg 36) · 75% · 1 ✓
vs
Wisconsin Badgers
4-2 · SOS #14
Win 17-7
Week 7
Our number· pregame
UCLA by 6.5
Total 47.1
DraftKings
UCLA -1.5
Total 42.5
Final UCLA by 10. UCLA beat the spread. 24 points — under the 42.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UCLA -2 (open UCLA -3.25) · O/U 42.75 (open 48) · ML +123.5 / -146 · UCLA 57% no-vig · model vs market +4.5 pts, +10 pct pts (UCLA view)
Game-time weather: 84°F, Wind 2 mph NW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (FHMC1)
NBC Rose Bowl
Pregame calls · how each did
W. Knight RB · TD threat 79% · 1 ✓C. Joseph QB · Low rush yds 38 (avg 52) · 75% · 71 ✗
vs
Michigan State Spartans
2-6 · SOS #2
Win 28-10
Week 8
Our number· pregame
UCLA by 13.8
Total 47.8
DraftKings
UCLA -16.5
Total 43.5
Final UCLA by 18. UCLA beat the spread. 38 points — under the 43.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UCLA -16.5 · O/U 43.5 · ML +575 / -850 · UCLA 85% no-vig · model vs market -2.7 pts, -3 pct pts (UCLA view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 79°F, Wind 9 mph S.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBUR)
CBS Rose Bowl
Pregame calls · how each did
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded gamesBlowout Alert: hit
3rd-down fav vs red-zone-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 38 hits, 1 misses (97% hit rate) over 39 graded gamesUnderdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: hit (n=39; wk 5–7 21-1) · Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · J. Patterson RB · Low rush yds 49 (avg 55) · 78% · did not playW. Knight RB · TD threat 82% · 1 ✓
vs
Nevada Wolf Pack
3-4 · SOS #115
Sat, Oct 31, 8:15 PM
Week 9
Proj 34-14 · 90%
Our number
UCLA by 20
Total 48
DraftKings
UCLA -22.5
Total 44.5
We're 2.5 points higher on Nevada than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UCLA -22.5 · O/U 44.5 · ML +976.5 / -1950 · UCLA 91% no-vig · model vs market -2.5 pts, -1 pct pts (UCLA view)
Kickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 68°F, Wind calm, 45% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
BTN Rose Bowl
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded games
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded games (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
On-the-number fav vs pass-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank: Record 27 hits, 1 misses (96% hit rate) over 28 graded games (n=28; wk 5–7 15-0) · Our margin − spread -3..3 + Underdog passing EPA: bottom-third FBS rank + Underdog run stuff rate (least): bottom-third FBS rank Pass-stopping fav vs havoc-prone visitor2026 combo · Weak Favorite covers: Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 31 hits, 12 misses (72% hit rate) over 43 graded games (n=43; wk 5–7 11-2) · Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · H. Turner RB · Low rush yds 52 (avg 69) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · D. Kelley RB · Low rush yds 66 (avg 83) · 78%W. Knight RB · TD threat 86%
at
Minnesota Golden Gophers
5-2 · SOS #83
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
Week 10
Proj 24-19 · 64%
Our number
UCLA by 5
Total 43
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Huntington Bank Stadium
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games
W. Knight RB · TD threat 76%T. Dieffenbach QB · High pass yds 213 (avg 168) · 65%
vs
Illinois Fighting Illini
4-3 · SOS #36
Sat, Nov 14, 2:00 AM
Week 11
Proj 29-23 · 64%
Our number
UCLA by 6
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Fox Rose Bowl
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
W. Knight RB · TD threat 78%T. Dieffenbach QB · High pass yds 222 (avg 168) · 67%
at
Michigan Wolverines
4-3 · SOS #10
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 21-21 · 48%
Our number
dead even
Total 42
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Michigan Stadium
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games
W. Knight RB · TD threat 69%A. Woods RB · Low rush yds 51 (avg 66) · 68%T. Dieffenbach QB · High pass yds 193 (avg 168) · 57%
vs
USC Trojans
6-2 · SOS #13
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 27-28 · 47%
Our number
USC by 1
Total 55
DraftKings
USC -10.5
Total 55.5
We're 9.5 points higher on UCLA than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: USC -10.5 · O/U 55.5 · ML -470 / +360 · UCLA 21% no-vig · model vs market +9.5 pts, +26 pct pts (UCLA view)
Rose Bowl
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
Pattern · Watching Under · high total, close game, our total below the book: Record 6 hits, 5 misses (55% hit rate) over 11 graded games · Under · high total, close game, our total below the book → went under 6 of 11 since Oct 17 · base 49%
Bounce-back home dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: Record 284 hits, 203 misses (58% hit rate) over 487 graded games (n=487) · Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game
3rd-down fav vs red-zone-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 38 hits, 1 misses (97% hit rate) over 39 graded games (n=39; wk 5–7 21-1) · Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · A. Woods RB · Low rush yds 61 (avg 66) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · W. Knight RB · Low rush yds 84 (avg 90) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · J. Thomas RB · Low rush yds 36 (avg 34) · 78%

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UCLA Bruins stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

+8.9

30th in FBS

Adj. offense

29.6

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

20.6

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	34.4	36 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	15.3	12 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	6.38	43 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	4.92	20 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	239.3	10 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	194.3	104 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	107.7	10 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	194.0	49 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	1.00	93 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	2.43	2 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	2.29	54 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	1.29	38 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	+0.11	54 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	-0.17	3 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	46.7%	35 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	33.3%	2 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	13.7%	45 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	11.1%	57 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	16.7%	15 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	12.8%	55 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	3.78	96 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	3.68	53 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 35	3 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 26	14 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	68.0	49 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	+0.17	19 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	+0.03	97 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	-0.05	28 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	-0.28	1 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	52.7%	3 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	38.7%	103 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	13.3%	15 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	30.7%	75 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	17.5%	1 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	47.4%	27 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	28.6%	4 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	62.4%	68 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	50.0%	35 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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