Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected UCLA 25.7, San Diego State 24 at Rose Bowl in Week 2. That is a genuine toss-up: UCLA wins about 54% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 1.7 points and 49.6 combined points. Tags: coin flip.
San Diego State is 1-0, scoring 53 and allowing 20 points per game (+33 per game). UCLA is 1-0, scoring 45 and allowing 24 points per game (+21 per game).
San Diego State's middle-of-the-pack offense (56th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.2 points against an average defense) meets UCLA's middle-of-the-pack defense (58th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points San Diego State puts up. The most lopsided unit battle: UCLA's middle-of-the-pack offense (43rd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.9 points against an average defense) against San Diego State's middle-of-the-pack defense (76th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between San Diego State by 21 and UCLA by 24 about 80% of the time.
UCLA gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field San Diego State would be favoured by 0.4. The game is on BTN.
Result: San Diego State 10, UCLA 28. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 16.3 points and the total by 11.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (San Diego State / UCLA) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | UCLA -10 → UCLA -13.5 | 53 → 53.5 | +377.5 / -512.5 |
| Bovada | UCLA -11.5 → UCLA -13.5 | 53 → 53.5 | +355 / -490 |
| DraftKings | UCLA -8.5 → UCLA -13.5 | 53.5 | +400 / -535 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | UCLA win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | UCLA -1.5 | 49.6 | 54% |
| Market consensus | UCLA -13.5 | 53.5 | 80% |
| Blended projection | UCLA -11.5 | 53.8 | 79% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- UCLA win probability
- model 54% · market (no-vig) 80% · difference -26 pts
- Margin
- model UCLA -1.7 · market UCLA -13.5 · difference -11.8 pts (UCLA view)
- Total
- model 49.6 · market 53.5 · difference -3.9
Model margin is 11.8 pts more toward San Diego State than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | San Diego State 24.0, UCLA 25.7 | UCLA 54%right winner | 16.3 | 11.6 |
| New formula | San Diego State 22.7, UCLA 34.6 | UCLA 76%right winner | 6.1 | 19.2 |
Final: San Diego State 10, UCLA 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
San Diego State vs UCLA: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | San Diego State | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.4#77 | 18.2#125 |
| Points allowed per game | 15.4#6 | 33.4#127 |
| Yards per play | 5.89#67 | 5.13#123 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.75#7 | 6.02#93 |
| Rushing yards per game | 219.7#15 | 149.1#91 |
| Net passing yards per game | 161.8#119 | 159.9#121 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 149.8#46 | 188.8#108 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 172.2#11 | 198.8#41 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.85#36 | 0.83#31 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.23#47 | 0.75#108 |
| Sacks per game | 2.38#35 | 0.83#135 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.31#23 | 2.17#94 |
| Stat | San Diego State | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02#81 | -0.02#103 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.17#5 | +0.11#120 |
| Success rate | 43.4%#55 | 41.6%#82 |
| Success rate allowed | 35.2%#10 | 49.9%#135 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.4%#69 | 10.8%#119 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.6%#14 | 13.0%#88 |
| Havoc rate | 12.7%#63 | 11.7%#91 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.8%#33 | 12.6%#88 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.68#98 | 3.55#114 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.94#8 | 4.45#121 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#18 | own 26#130 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#6 | own 31#98 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.8#89 | 60.3#126 |
| Stat | San Diego State | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.08#37 | +0.13#18 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.09#109 | -0.15#125 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.03#47 | +0.14#130 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.31#3 | +0.07#94 |
| Rushing success rate | 46.7%#36 | 44.7%#55 |
| Passing success rate | 35.8%#119 | 38.9%#97 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.5%#26 | 18.2%#67 |
| Passing-down success rate | 21.5%#135 | 30.9%#64 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 23.9%#8 | 39.2%#136 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.1%#129 | 36.4%#107 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 35.1%#20 | 56.7%#136 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 62.2%#61 | 64.3%#49 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 48.0%#12 | 68.6%#118 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: San Diego State schedule · UCLA schedule · all Week 2 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.