Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected UCLA 30.8, Michigan State 17 at Rose Bowl in Week 8. That is a solid edge: UCLA wins about 82% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.7 points and 47.8 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Michigan State is 2-5, scoring 21.3 and allowing 25.4 points per game (-4.1 per game). UCLA (No. 9) is 6-0, scoring 35.5 and allowing 16.2 points per game (+19.3 per game).
Expect Michigan State to find it hard going: UCLA's strong defense (24th) outranks Michigan State's below-average offense (98th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.6 points against an average defense). UCLA's middle-of-the-pack offense (44th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.6 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Michigan State's middle-of-the-pack defense (61st); that mismatch is where most of UCLA's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Michigan State by 9 and UCLA by 36 about 80% of the time.
UCLA gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour UCLA by about 11.6. The game is on CBS.
Result: Michigan State 10, UCLA 28. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 4.3 points and the total by 9.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Michigan State / UCLA) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | UCLA -16.5 | 43.5 | +575 / -850 |
| Opening line | UCLA -13.5 | 47.5 | +400 / -535 |
| DraftKings | UCLA -16.5 | 43.5 | +575 / -850 |
| FanDuel | UCLA -16.5 | 43.5 | +580 / -880 |
| BetRivers | UCLA -16.5 | 43.5 | +600 / -1000 |
| BetMGM | UCLA -16.5 | 43.5 | +575 / -750 |
This game's lines: Action Network · read Oct 25, 6:45 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | UCLA win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | UCLA -13.5 | 47.8 | 82% |
| Market consensus | UCLA -16.5 | 43.5 | 85% |
| Blended projection | UCLA -16 | 45.1 | 86% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- UCLA win probability
- model 82% · market (no-vig) 85% · difference -3 pts
- Margin
- model UCLA -13.7 · market UCLA -16.5 · difference -2.8 pts (UCLA view)
- Total
- model 47.8 · market 43.5 · difference +4.3
Model margin is 2.8 pts more toward Michigan State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Michigan State 17.0, UCLA 30.8 | UCLA 82%right winner | 4.3 | 9.8 |
| New formula | Not recorded for this game | |||
Final: Michigan State 10, UCLA 28. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Michigan State vs UCLA: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Michigan State | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 24.6#89 | 18.2#125 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.9#104 | 33.4#127 |
| Yards per play | 5.49#103 | 5.13#123 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.10#99 | 6.02#93 |
| Rushing yards per game | 146.8#95 | 149.1#91 |
| Net passing yards per game | 204.8#92 | 159.9#121 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 161.3#69 | 188.8#108 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 226.8#90 | 198.8#41 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.75#21 | 0.83#31 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50#131 | 0.75#108 |
| Sacks per game | 1.83#85 | 0.83#135 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.75#120 | 2.17#94 |
| Stat | Michigan State | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02#76 | -0.02#103 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.11#119 | +0.11#120 |
| Success rate | 41.9%#77 | 41.6%#82 |
| Success rate allowed | 45.9%#124 | 49.9%#135 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.6%#90 | 10.8%#119 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.5%#109 | 13.0%#88 |
| Havoc rate | 10.8%#113 | 11.7%#91 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.7%#130 | 12.6%#88 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.03#64 | 3.55#114 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.51#126 | 4.45#121 |
| Average starting field position | own 29#85 | own 26#130 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 33#130 | own 31#98 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 64.1#96 | 60.3#126 |
| Stat | Michigan State | UCLA |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.03#66 | +0.13#18 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.01#79 | -0.15#125 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.05#101 | +0.14#130 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.16#121 | +0.07#94 |
| Rushing success rate | 42.8%#73 | 44.7%#55 |
| Passing success rate | 41.1%#67 | 38.9%#97 |
| Run stuff rate | 23.8%#133 | 18.2%#67 |
| Passing-down success rate | 29.9%#78 | 30.9%#64 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.0%#87 | 39.2%#136 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.1%#98 | 36.4%#107 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 42.5%#94 | 56.7%#136 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 62.5%#58 | 64.3%#49 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 67.3%#112 | 68.6%#118 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Michigan State schedule · UCLA schedule · all Week 8 projections
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