2026 schedule

Michigan State Spartans

2-6SOS #7

2026 season so far

Michigan State is 2-6 against the 7th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 19.9 and allowing 25.8 points per game (-5.9 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings Michigan State ranks 80th of 139 FBS teams overall — 98th on offense and 61st on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.

Next up: at Michigan in Week 10. We project Michigan State 15, Michigan 27 — Michigan State wins 21% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

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vs
Toledo Rockets
0-1 · SOS #122
Win 30-20
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Toledo by 3.1
Total 52.1
DraftKings
MSU -10
Total 48.5
Final Michigan State by 10. The spread landed exactly on the number. 50 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Michigan State -10 (open Michigan State -10.5) · O/U 48.5 (open 49.5) · ML +312.5 / -410 · Michigan State 77% no-vig · model vs market -13.1 pts, -35 pct pts (Michigan State view)
FS1 Spartan Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded games
vs
Eastern Michigan Eagles
1-2 · SOS #131
Win 35-7
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Michigan State by 8.8
Total 51.8
DraftKings
MSU -17.5
Total 49.5
Final Michigan State by 28. Michigan State beat the spread. 42 points — under the 49.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Michigan State -17.5 (open Michigan State -16.25) · O/U 49.75 (open 51.25) · ML +612.5 / -950 · Michigan State 87% no-vig · model vs market -8.7 pts, -15 pct pts (Michigan State view)
BTN Spartan Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Big home fav, modest total overStudy · Moderate Over: Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: Record 219 hits, 142 misses (61% hit rate) over 361 graded gamesHome favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: missed (n=361) · Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5
at
#3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish
3-0 · SOS #49
Loss 10-27
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Notre Dame by 11.4
Total 49.6
DraftKings
ND -28.5
Total 51.5
Final Notre Dame by 17. Michigan State beat the spread. 37 points — under the 51.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Notre Dame -28.75 (open Notre Dame -29.75) · O/U 51.5 (open 52.75) · ML +1700 / -7500 · Notre Dame 95% no-vig · model vs market -17.3 pts, -17 pct pts (Notre Dame view)
NBC Notre Dame Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: missed (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
vs
Nebraska Cornhuskers
4-0 · SOS #31
Loss 13-31
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Nebraska by 5.5
Total 50.3
DraftKings
NEB -6
Total 48.5
Final Nebraska by 18. Nebraska beat the spread. 44 points — under the 48.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Nebraska -6 (open Nebraska -5.5) · O/U 48.5 (open 50.5) · ML -222.5 / +182.5 · Michigan State 34% no-vig · model vs market +0.5 pts, +2 pct pts (Michigan State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 68°F, Wind 7 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLAN)
BTN Spartan Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded gamesBlowout Alert: hit
J. Rule RB · Low rush yds 80 (avg 110) · 73% · 4 ✓J. Rule RB · TD threat 71% · 0 ✗J. Barney Jr. WR · Low catches 4.5 (avg 5) · 66% · 1 ✓
at
Wisconsin Badgers
4-1 · SOS #22
Loss 3-31
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Wisconsin by 8.3
Total 44.9
DraftKings
WIS -8.5
Total 43.5
Final Wisconsin by 28. Wisconsin beat the spread. 34 points — under the 43.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Wisconsin -8.75 (open Wisconsin -10.25) · O/U 43.25 (open 44.5) · ML +292.5 / -382.5 · Wisconsin 76% no-vig · model vs market -0.4 pts, -5 pct pts (Wisconsin view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 66°F, Wind 6 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KC29)
BTN Camp Randall Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hit
J. Harris TE · Low rec yds 36 (avg 51) · 75% · 35 ✓C. Edwards RB · Low rush yds 59 (avg 76) · 72% · did not playC. McCray WR · Low catches 3 (avg 3.8) · 67% · 3 ✓
vs
Illinois Fighting Illini
3-3 · SOS #28
Loss 37-38
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Illinois by 3.5
Total 49.3
DraftKings
ILL -2.5
Total 48.5
Final Illinois by 1. Michigan State beat the spread. 75 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Illinois -2.5 (open Illinois -3) · O/U 48.25 (open 48.75) · ML -158.5 / +135 · Michigan State 41% no-vig · model vs market -1.0 pts, -0 pct pts (Michigan State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 9 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLAN)
FS1 Spartan Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Bounce-back home dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: Record 284 hits, 203 misses (58% hit rate) over 487 graded gamesHome underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: hit (n=487) · Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game Short dog vs leaky reeling favShort dog · fav lost, weak D · 2014–25 Underdog getting 2.5 or less, favorite lost its last game and has a bottom-third defense: Record 155 hits, 114 misses (58% hit rate) over 269 graded games · 2026: 9-10Short dog · fav lost, weak D: missed
C. Dixon WR · TD threat 71% · 1 ✓C. Dixon WR · Low catches 6.8 (avg 8) · 65% · 7 ✓
vs
#25 Northwestern Wildcats
5-1 · SOS #44
Loss 21-24
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Northwestern by 9.5
Total 49.1
DraftKings
NU -7.5
Total 50.5
Final Northwestern by 3. Michigan State beat the spread. 45 points — under the 50.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Northwestern -7.25 (open Northwestern -8.5) · O/U 50.25 (open 48) · ML -324 / +257.5 · Michigan State 27% no-vig · model vs market -2.2 pts, -0 pct pts (Michigan State view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 48°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KLAN)
Peacock Spartan Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
at
#9 UCLA Bruins
7-0 · SOS #42
Loss 10-28
Week 8
Our number· pregame
UCLA by 13.8
Total 47.8
DraftKings
UCLA -16.5
Total 43.5
Final UCLA by 18. UCLA beat the spread. 38 points — under the 43.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UCLA -16.5 · O/U 43.5 · ML +575 / -850 · UCLA 85% no-vig · model vs market -2.7 pts, -3 pct pts (UCLA view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 79°F, Wind 9 mph S.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBUR)
CBS Rose Bowl
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hit
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded gamesBlowout Alert: hit
3rd-down fav vs red-zone-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 38 hits, 1 misses (97% hit rate) over 39 graded gamesUnderdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: hit (n=39; wk 5–7 21-1) · Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · J. Patterson RB · Low rush yds 49 (avg 55) · 78% · did not playW. Knight RB · TD threat 82% · 1 ✓
at
Michigan Wolverines
4-3 · SOS #15
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
Week 10
Proj 15-27 · 21%
Our number
Michigan by 12
Total 42
DraftKings
MICH -16.5
Total 50.5
We're 4.5 points higher on Michigan State than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Michigan -16.5 · O/U 50.5 · ML +625 / -950 · Michigan 87% no-vig · model vs market -4.5 pts, -8 pct pts (Michigan view)
Michigan Stadium
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games
Unranked plodding fav vs soft-D visitor under2026 combo · Held up Under: Neither team ranked + Away team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank: Record 24 hits, 6 misses (80% hit rate) over 30 graded games (n=30; wk 5–7 12-2) · Neither team ranked + Away team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank
vs
Washington Huskies
4-3 · SOS #65
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 21-28 · 31%
Our number
Washington by 7
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Spartan Stadium
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded games
E. Brown QB · High pass yds 239 (avg 193) · 64%
vs
Oregon Ducks
4-3 · SOS #20
Sat, Nov 21, 1:00 AM
Week 12
Proj 14-35 · 9%
Our number
Oregon by 21
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Fox Spartan Stadium
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded games
D. Raiola QB · High pass yds 185 (avg 152) · 66%
at
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
2-5 · SOS #51
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 28-29 · 46%
Our number
Rutgers by 1
Total 57
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
SHI Stadium
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games
K. Duff WR · TD threat 68%

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Michigan State Spartans stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

-2.4

79th in FBS

Adj. offense

23.6

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

26.0

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	19.9	125 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	25.8	87 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	4.82	135 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	5.66	72 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	130.9	117 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	169.1	123 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	158.3	76 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	198.1	51 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	1.13	98 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	0.38	131 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	1.50	105 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	3.00	127 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	-0.07	133 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	+0.07	82 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	41.7%	87 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	43.6%	100 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	8.2%	136 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	11.4%	63 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	12.2%	112 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	13.8%	84 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	3.53	110 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	4.02	90 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 32	21 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 31	107 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	62.3	105 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	-0.05	123 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	-0.10	126 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	+0.01	57 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	+0.15	100 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	41.7%	94 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	41.7%	66 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	16.2%	54 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	31.2%	70 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	30.6%	77 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	36.6%	102 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	43.7%	115 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	58.3%	90 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	58.6%	67 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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