Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Toledo 27.6, Michigan State 24.5 at Spartan Stadium in Week 1. That is a lean: Toledo wins about 58% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.1 points and 52 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Toledo has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Michigan State has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Toledo's middle-of-the-pack offense (58th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.9 points against an average defense) meets Michigan State's middle-of-the-pack defense (61st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Toledo puts up. Michigan State's below-average offense (98th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.6 points against an average defense) meets Toledo's below-average defense (87th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Michigan State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Toledo by 26 and Michigan State by 19 about 80% of the time.
Michigan State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Toledo is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on FS1.
Result: Toledo 20, Michigan State 30. Michigan State won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 13.1 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Toledo / Michigan State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Michigan State -10.5 → Michigan State -10 | 49.5 → 48.5 | +312.5 / -410 |
| DraftKings | Michigan State -10.5 → Michigan State -10 | 48.5 | +320 / -410 |
| Bovada | Michigan State -10.5 → Michigan State -10 | 49.5 → 48.5 | +305 / -410 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Michigan State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Toledo -3 | 52.0 | 42% |
| Market consensus | Michigan State -10 | 48.5 | 77% |
| Blended projection | Michigan State -8 | 49.6 | 70% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Michigan State win probability
- model 42% · market (no-vig) 77% · difference -35 pts
- Margin
- model Toledo -3.1 · market Michigan State -10 · difference -13.1 pts (Michigan State view)
- Total
- model 52.0 · market 48.5 · difference +3.5
Model margin is 13.1 pts more toward Toledo than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Toledo 27.6, Michigan State 24.5 | Toledo 58%wrong winner | 13.1 | 2.0 |
| New formula | Toledo 21.2, Michigan State 32.1 | Michigan State 74%right winner | 0.8 | 3.3 |
Final: Toledo 20, Michigan State 30. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Toledo vs Michigan State: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Toledo | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.8#39 | 24.6#89 |
| Points allowed per game | 13.3#4 | 29.9#104 |
| Yards per play | 6.26#35 | 5.49#103 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.19#1 | 6.10#99 |
| Rushing yards per game | 185.5#45 | 146.8#95 |
| Net passing yards per game | 229.4#60 | 204.8#92 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 115.1#10 | 161.3#69 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 145.9#2 | 226.8#90 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.92#53 | 0.75#21 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.46#20 | 0.50#131 |
| Sacks per game | 2.85#8 | 1.83#85 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.31#25 | 2.75#120 |
| Stat | Toledo | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.11#31 | +0.02#76 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.18#3 | +0.11#119 |
| Success rate | 45.2%#40 | 41.9%#77 |
| Success rate allowed | 34.6%#6 | 45.9%#124 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.3%#12 | 11.6%#90 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 9.2%#9 | 13.5%#109 |
| Havoc rate | 17.1%#2 | 10.8%#113 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.7%#15 | 15.7%#130 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.90#78 | 4.03#64 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.70#2 | 4.51#126 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#24 | own 29#85 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 28#37 | own 33#130 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.3#66 | 64.1#96 |
| Stat | Toledo | Michigan State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.06#49 | +0.03#66 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.15#28 | +0.01#79 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.07#24 | +0.05#101 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.31#2 | +0.16#121 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.2%#60 | 42.8%#73 |
| Passing success rate | 43.4%#44 | 41.1%#67 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.7%#59 | 23.8%#133 |
| Passing-down success rate | 30.7%#71 | 29.9%#78 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 22.8%#5 | 31.0%#87 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.7%#76 | 38.1%#98 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 31.5%#6 | 42.5%#94 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 60.7%#72 | 62.5%#58 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 55.6%#40 | 67.3%#112 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Toledo schedule · Michigan State schedule · all Week 1 projections
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