Matchup analysis
Our model projects Michigan 27, Michigan State 15 at Michigan Stadium in Week 10. That is a solid edge: Michigan wins about 79% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 12.1 points and 41.3 combined points. Tags: leans low scoring.
Michigan State is 2-6 against the 7th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 19.9 and allowing 25.8 points per game (-5.9 per game). Michigan is 4-3 against the 15th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.3 and allowing 15.7 points per game (+4.6 per game).
Michigan's strong defense (18th) should limit Michigan State's below-average offense (98th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 23.6 points against an average defense). Michigan's middle-of-the-pack offense (67th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.8 points against an average defense) meets Michigan State's middle-of-the-pack defense (61st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Michigan puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Michigan State by 10 and Michigan by 35 about 80% of the time.
Michigan gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Michigan by about 10.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Michigan State / Michigan) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Michigan -16.5 | 50.5 | +625 / -950 |
| DraftKings | Michigan -16.5 | 50.5 | +625 / -950 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Michigan win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Michigan -12 | 41.3 | 79% |
| Market consensus | Michigan -16.5 | 50.5 | 87% |
| Blended projection | Michigan -16 | 50.7 | 86% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Michigan win probability
- model 79% · market (no-vig) 87% · difference -8 pts
- Margin
- model Michigan -12.1 · market Michigan -16.5 · difference -4.4 pts (Michigan view)
- Total
- model 41.3 · market 50.5 · difference -9.2
Model margin is 4.4 pts more toward Michigan State than the market.
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Michigan State vs Michigan: stat comparison
| Stat | Michigan State | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 19.9#125 | 20.3#119 |
| Points allowed per game | 25.8#87 | 15.7#15 |
| Yards per play | 4.82#135 | 5.10#127 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.66#72 | 4.54#5 |
| Rushing yards per game | 130.9#117 | 144.0#105 |
| Net passing yards per game | 169.1#123 | 158.6#128 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 158.3#76 | 109.0#12 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 198.1#51 | 166.0#16 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.13#98 | 1.14#105 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.38#131 | 1.29#23 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50#105 | 2.14#58 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.00#127 | 1.86#69 |
| Stat | Michigan State | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.07#133 | +0.02#102 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07#82 | -0.17#2 |
| Success rate | 41.7%#87 | 40.1%#108 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.6%#100 | 34.7%#9 |
| Explosive play rate | 8.2%#136 | 10.4%#124 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.4%#63 | 8.1%#6 |
| Havoc rate | 12.2%#112 | 14.9%#47 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.8%#84 | 15.3%#116 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.53#110 | 3.30#125 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.02#90 | 3.31#24 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#21 | own 30#66 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 31#107 | own 30#94 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.3#105 | 59.3#125 |
| Stat | Michigan State | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.05#123 | +0.01#104 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.10#126 | +0.03#96 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.01#57 | -0.16#3 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.15#100 | -0.19#6 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.7%#94 | 40.3%#103 |
| Passing success rate | 41.7%#66 | 39.9%#90 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.2%#54 | 15.3%#36 |
| Passing-down success rate | 31.2%#70 | 35.8%#29 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.6%#77 | 24.2%#11 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.6%#102 | 40.0%#79 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 43.7%#115 | 34.7%#32 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 58.3%#90 | 55.6%#102 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 58.6%#67 | 43.8%#13 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Michigan State schedule · Michigan schedule · all Week 10 projections
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