2026 schedule

Michigan Wolverines

4-3SOS #15

2026 season so far

Michigan is 4-3 against the 15th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.3 and allowing 15.7 points per game (+4.6 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings Michigan ranks 35th of 139 FBS teams overall — 67th on offense and 18th on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.

Next up: at Rutgers in Week 9. We project Michigan 31, Rutgers 22 — Michigan wins 72% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

vs
Western Michigan Broncos
0-1 · SOS #91
Win 13-12
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Michigan by 8
Total 48.4
DraftKings
MICH -27.5
Total 50.5
Final Michigan by 1. Western Michigan beat the spread. 25 points — under the 50.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Michigan -27.5 (open Michigan -26.5) · O/U 50 (open 47.5) · ML +1650 / -6750 · Michigan 94% no-vig · model vs market -19.5 pts, -24 pct pts (Michigan view)
NBC Michigan Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: missed (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
vs
#11 Oklahoma Sooners
1-1 · SOS #9
Win 17-10
Week 2
Our number· pregame
dead even
Total 44.3
DraftKings
OU -5.5
Total 43.5
Final Michigan by 7. Michigan beat the spread. 27 points — under the 43.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Oklahoma -5 (open Michigan -1.5) · O/U 43.5 (open 46) · ML -207.5 / +172.5 · Michigan 35% no-vig · model vs market +5.1 pts, +15 pct pts (Michigan view)
Fox Michigan Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hitLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hit
vs
UTEP Miners
1-2 · SOS #76
Win 52-17
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Michigan by 11.7
Total 44.9
DraftKings
MICH -34.5
Total 48.5
Final Michigan by 35. Michigan beat the spread. 69 points — over the 48.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Michigan -34.5 (open Michigan -36.75) · O/U 48.5 (open 49.5) · model vs market -22.8 pts (Michigan view)
BTN Michigan Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: hit (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14 Big home fav, modest total overStudy · Moderate Over: Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: Record 219 hits, 142 misses (61% hit rate) over 361 graded gamesHome favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5: hit (n=361) · Home favorite by 14+, total 45–49.5
vs
#17 Iowa Hawkeyes
4-0 · SOS #39
Loss 19-20
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Iowa by 1.5
Total 46.3
DraftKings
MICH -4.5
Total 39.5
Final Iowa by 1. Iowa beat the spread. 39 points — under the 39.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Michigan -4.75 (open Michigan -4.25) · O/U 39.75 (open 38.5) · ML +170 / -201.5 · Michigan 64% no-vig · model vs market -6.2 pts, -18 pct pts (Michigan view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 8 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KYIP)
CBS Michigan Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hitLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: missed
Short home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded gamesHome favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: missed (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game
B. Underwood QB · Low rush yds 38 (avg 52) · 74% · 36 ✓J. Buchanan WR · Low rec yds 63 (avg 89) · 74% · 130 ✗N. McNeil RB · Low rush yds 38 (avg 43) · 70% · did not play
at
Minnesota Golden Gophers
4-1 · SOS #75
Loss 14-20
Week 5
Our number· pregame
dead even
Total 48.5
DraftKings
MICH -6.5
Total 41.5
Final Minnesota by 6. Minnesota beat the spread. 34 points — under the 41.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Michigan -6.25 (open Michigan -7.5) · O/U 42.25 (open 44) · ML -237.5 / +195 · Minnesota 33% no-vig · model vs market +6.4 pts, +18 pct pts (Minnesota view)
Game-time weather: Partly cloudy, 66°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMSP)
Fox Huntington Bank Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hit
Bounce-back home dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: Record 284 hits, 203 misses (58% hit rate) over 487 graded gamesHome underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: hit (n=487) · Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game
J. Buchanan WR · Low rec yds 69 (avg 99) · 74% · 50 ✓B. Underwood QB · Low rush yds 37 (avg 48) · 73% · 20 ✓
vs
Penn State Nittany Lions
3-4 · SOS #46
Win 21-18
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Michigan by 3.3
Total 46.7
DraftKings
MICH -6
Total 43.5
Final Michigan by 3. Penn State beat the spread. 39 points — under the 43.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Michigan -6 (open Michigan -6.25) · O/U 43.25 (open 47) · ML +185 / -225 · Michigan 66% no-vig · model vs market -2.7 pts, -8 pct pts (Michigan view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 54°F, Wind 6 mph SW.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KYIP)
CBS Michigan Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hit
Defensive bounce-back favStudy · Lean Favorite covers: Underdog implied 14–21, both defenses strong, favorite missed the spread last game: Record 170 hits, 113 misses (60% hit rate) over 283 graded gamesUnderdog implied 14–21, both defenses strong, favorite missed the spread last game: missed (n=283) · Underdog implied 14–21, both defenses strong, favorite missed the spread last game
vs
#6 Indiana Hoosiers
7-1 · SOS #32
Loss 6-13
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Indiana by 13
Total 45.8
DraftKings
IU -7.5
Total 43.5
Final Indiana by 7. Michigan beat the spread. 19 points — under the 43.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Indiana -7.5 · O/U 43.5 · ML -298 / +240 · Michigan 28% no-vig · model vs market -5.5 pts, -9 pct pts (Michigan view)
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 63°F.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KYIP)
Fox Michigan Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded gamesLeans low scoring: hit
Bounce-back home dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: Record 284 hits, 203 misses (58% hit rate) over 487 graded gamesHome underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game: hit (n=487) · Home underdog vs a road favorite that lost and missed the spread last game Defensive bounce-back favStudy · Lean Favorite covers: Underdog implied 14–21, both defenses strong, favorite missed the spread last game: Record 170 hits, 113 misses (60% hit rate) over 283 graded gamesUnderdog implied 14–21, both defenses strong, favorite missed the spread last game: missed (n=283) · Underdog implied 14–21, both defenses strong, favorite missed the spread last game
3rd-down fav vs red-zone-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 38 hits, 1 misses (97% hit rate) over 39 graded gamesUnderdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: hit (n=39; wk 5–7 21-1) · Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats Stuff-proof ball-secure fav vs havoc-prone dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite covers: Underdog havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite run stuff rate (least): top-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): top-third FBS rank: Record 28 hits, 5 misses (85% hit rate) over 33 graded gamesUnderdog havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite run stuff rate (least): top-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): top-third FBS rank: missed (n=33; wk 5–7 14-3) · Underdog havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite run stuff rate (least): top-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): top-third FBS rank
L. Beebe Jr. RB · Low rush yds 59 (avg 82) · 73% · 56 ✓J. Buchanan WR · Low rec yds 57 (avg 80) · 73% · 57 ✓T. Richard RB · Low rush yds 67 (avg 92) · 72% · 68 ✓
at
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
2-5 · SOS #51
Sat, Oct 31, 4:30 PM
Week 9
Proj 31-22 · 72%
Our number
Michigan by 9
Total 53
DraftKings
MICH -14
Total 46.5
We're 5 points higher on Rutgers than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Michigan -14 · O/U 46.5 · ML -625 / +445 · Rutgers 18% no-vig · model vs market +5.0 pts, +10 pct pts (Rutgers view)
Kickoff forecast: Sunny, 58°F, Wind 5 mph N, 0% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
BTN SHI Stadium
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games
Pass-stopping fav vs havoc-prone visitor2026 combo · Weak Favorite covers: Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 31 hits, 12 misses (72% hit rate) over 43 graded games (n=43; wk 5–7 11-2) · Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · A. Raymond RB · Low rush yds 76 (avg 93) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · C. Thevenin RB · Low rush yds 56 (avg 58) · 78%
vs
Michigan State Spartans
2-6 · SOS #7
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
Week 10
Proj 27-15 · 79%
Our number
Michigan by 12
Total 42
DraftKings
MICH -16.5
Total 50.5
We're 4.5 points higher on Michigan State than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Michigan -16.5 · O/U 50.5 · ML +625 / -950 · Michigan 87% no-vig · model vs market -4.5 pts, -8 pct pts (Michigan view)
Michigan Stadium
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Low Scoring AlertLow Scoring Alert: Record 82 hits, 72 misses (53% hit rate) over 154 graded gamesUpset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games
Unranked plodding fav vs soft-D visitor under2026 combo · Held up Under: Neither team ranked + Away team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank: Record 24 hits, 6 misses (80% hit rate) over 30 graded games (n=30; wk 5–7 12-2) · Neither team ranked + Away team success rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite explosive plays: bottom-third FBS rank
at
Oregon Ducks
4-3 · SOS #20
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 16-30 · 17%
Our number
Oregon by 14
Total 46
DraftKings
ORE -13.5
Total 53.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Oregon -13.5 · O/U 53.5 · ML +440 / -600 · Oregon 82% no-vig · model vs market +0.5 pts, +0 pct pts (Oregon view)
Autzen Stadium
ExpectedLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Defensive bounce-back favStudy · Lean Favorite covers: Underdog implied 14–21, both defenses strong, favorite missed the spread last game: Record 170 hits, 113 misses (60% hit rate) over 283 graded games (n=283) · Underdog implied 14–21, both defenses strong, favorite missed the spread last game
Pass-stopping fav vs havoc-prone visitor2026 combo · Weak Favorite covers: Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank: Record 31 hits, 12 misses (72% hit rate) over 43 graded games (n=43; wk 5–7 11-2) · Away team havoc allowed (least): bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite passing EPA allowed: top-third FBS rank
Elite 114-37 (typical 60%) · B. Underwood QB · Low rush yds 24 (avg 32) · 75%Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · J. Marshall RB · Low rush yds 43 (avg 46) · 77%Elite 101-30 (typical 62%) · S. Hiter RB · Low rush yds 34 (avg 34) · 77%
vs
#7 UCLA Bruins
7-0 · SOS #42
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 21-21 · 52%
Our number
dead even
Total 42
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Michigan Stadium
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
Upset WatchUpset Watch: Record 45 hits, 133 misses (25% hit rate) over 178 graded games
W. Knight RB · TD threat 69%A. Woods RB · Low rush yds 51 (avg 66) · 68%T. Dieffenbach QB · High pass yds 193 (avg 168) · 57%
at
#2 Ohio State Buckeyes
6-1 · SOS #19
Sat, Nov 28, 5:00 PM
Week 13
Proj 12-34 · 7%
Our number
Ohio State by 22
Total 46
DraftKings
OSU -13.5
Total 46.5
We're 8.5 points higher on Ohio State than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Ohio State -13.5 · O/U 46.5 · ML +425 / -575 · Ohio State 82% no-vig · model vs market +8.5 pts, +11 pct pts (Ohio State view)
Fox Ohio Stadium
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesLeans low scoringLeans low scoring: Record 83 hits, 105 misses (44% hit rate) over 188 graded games
3rd-down fav vs red-zone-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 38 hits, 1 misses (97% hit rate) over 39 graded games (n=39; wk 5–7 21-1) · Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats TD-shy dog vs sloppy fav under2026 combo · Held up Under: Underdog red-zone TD rate: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 22 hits, 4 misses (85% hit rate) over 26 graded games (n=26; wk 5–7 11-1) · Underdog red-zone TD rate: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · B. Underwood QB · Low rush yds 22 (avg 32) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · J. Marshall RB · Low rush yds 38 (avg 46) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · S. Hiter RB · Low rush yds 30 (avg 34) · 78%

Times shown in your local time

Michigan Wolverines stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

+7.5

35th in FBS

Adj. offense

26.8

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

19.3

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	20.3	119 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	15.7	15 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	5.10	127 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	4.54	5 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	144.0	105 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	158.6	128 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	109.0	12 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	166.0	16 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	1.14	105 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	1.29	23 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	2.14	58 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	1.86	69 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	+0.02	102 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	-0.17	2 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	40.1%	108 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	34.7%	9 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	10.4%	124 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	8.1%	6 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	14.9%	47 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	15.3%	116 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	3.30	125 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	3.31	24 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 30	66 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 30	94 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	59.3	125 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	+0.01	104 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	+0.03	96 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	-0.16	3 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	-0.19	6 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	40.3%	103 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	39.9%	90 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	15.3%	36 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	35.8%	29 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	24.2%	11 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	40.0%	79 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	34.7%	32 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	55.6%	102 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	43.8%	13 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

Free weekly projections email

One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.