Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Michigan 22.2, Oklahoma 22.1 at Michigan Stadium in Week 2. That is a genuine toss-up: Michigan wins about 50% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 0.1 points and 44.3 combined points. Tags: coin flip, leans low scoring.
Oklahoma (No. 11) is 1-0, scoring 51 and allowing 0 points per game (+51 per game). Michigan is 1-0, scoring 13 and allowing 12 points per game (+1 per game).
Oklahoma's strong offense (18th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.5 points against an average defense) meets Michigan's strong defense (20th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Oklahoma puts up. Oklahoma's elite defense (7th) should limit Michigan's middle-of-the-pack offense (42nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 29.9 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Oklahoma by 22 and Michigan by 23 about 80% of the time.
Michigan gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. That home edge is the difference: on a neutral field Oklahoma would be favoured by 2. The game is on Fox.
Result: Oklahoma 10, Michigan 17. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 6.9 points and the total by 17.3.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Oklahoma / Michigan) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Michigan -1.5 → Oklahoma -5 | 46 → 43.5 | -207.5 / +172.5 |
| DraftKings | Michigan -1.5 → Oklahoma -5.5 | 46.5 → 43.5 | -205 / +170 |
| Bovada | Michigan -1.5 → Oklahoma -4.5 | 45.5 → 43.5 | -210 / +175 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Michigan win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Pick'em | 44.3 | 50% |
| Market consensus | Oklahoma -5 | 43.5 | 35% |
| Blended projection | Oklahoma -4 | 44.9 | 39% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Michigan win probability
- model 50% · market (no-vig) 35% · difference +15 pts
- Margin
- model Michigan -0.1 · market Oklahoma -5 · difference +5.1 pts (Michigan view)
- Total
- model 44.3 · market 43.5 · difference +0.8
Model margin is 5.1 pts more toward Michigan than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Oklahoma 22.1, Michigan 22.2 | Michigan 50%right winner | 6.9 | 17.3 |
| New formula | Oklahoma 24.8, Michigan 21.6 | Oklahoma 58%wrong winner | 10.2 | 19.4 |
Final: Oklahoma 10, Michigan 17. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Oklahoma vs Michigan: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Oklahoma | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.2#79 | 27.5#69 |
| Points allowed per game | 15.5#7 | 20.4#29 |
| Yards per play | 5.56#95 | 6.23#37 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.73#6 | 5.00#13 |
| Rushing yards per game | 132.5#116 | 217.7#16 |
| Net passing yards per game | 236.0#55 | 182.6#111 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 101.6#5 | 132.9#23 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 198.0#38 | 194.5#35 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.00#62 | 0.92#44 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.85#90 | 1.23#45 |
| Sacks per game | 3.46#1 | 2.23#47 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 2.31#104 | 1.62#49 |
| Stat | Oklahoma | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | -0.06#117 | +0.07#43 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.18#4 | -0.00#61 |
| Success rate | 39.6%#106 | 45.1%#41 |
| Success rate allowed | 32.2%#3 | 42.6%#80 |
| Explosive play rate | 11.5%#94 | 13.0%#51 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.5%#31 | 10.9%#36 |
| Havoc rate | 16.6%#5 | 12.6%#65 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.4%#103 | 9.6%#13 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.91#75 | 4.03#65 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.90#5 | 4.08#93 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#30 | own 31#33 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#11 | own 28#47 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.2#68 | 64.2#95 |
| Stat | Oklahoma | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.10#128 | +0.16#10 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.02#93 | -0.03#95 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.18#4 | -0.01#57 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.18#13 | +0.01#72 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.7%#119 | 49.2%#12 |
| Passing success rate | 41.2%#65 | 40.2%#81 |
| Run stuff rate | 21.8%#120 | 13.1%#4 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.4%#103 | 30.8%#69 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.9%#20 | 32.8%#109 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.2%#80 | 47.2%#22 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 28.3%#2 | 40.4%#68 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 72.7%#15 | 62.7%#55 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 46.4%#7 | 53.8%#25 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Oklahoma schedule · Michigan schedule · all Week 2 projections
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