Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Michigan 25, Penn State 21.7 at Michigan Stadium in Week 7. That is a lean: Michigan wins about 59% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.3 points and 46.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
Penn State is 3-3, scoring 30.5 and allowing 18.5 points per game (+12 per game). Michigan is 3-2, scoring 23 and allowing 15.8 points per game (+7.2 per game).
Michigan's strong defense (17th) should limit Penn State's middle-of-the-pack offense (54th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 27.8 points against an average defense). Expect Michigan to find it hard going: Penn State's strong defense (33rd) outranks Michigan's middle-of-the-pack offense (52nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.5 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Penn State by 19 and Michigan by 26 about 80% of the time.
Michigan gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Michigan by about 1.2. The game is on CBS.
Result: Penn State 18, Michigan 21. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 0.3 points and the total by 7.7.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Penn State / Michigan) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Michigan -6.25 → Michigan -6 | 47 → 43.25 | +185 / -225 |
| DraftKings | Michigan -6.5 → Michigan -6 | 51.5 → 43.5 | +190 / -230 |
| Bovada | Michigan -6 | 42.5 → 43 | +180 / -220 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Michigan win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Michigan -3.5 | 46.7 | 59% |
| Market consensus | Michigan -6 | 43.3 | 66% |
| Blended projection | Michigan -5.5 | 44.8 | 65% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Michigan win probability
- model 59% · market (no-vig) 66% · difference -8 pts
- Margin
- model Michigan -3.3 · market Michigan -6 · difference -2.7 pts (Michigan view)
- Total
- model 46.7 · market 43.25 · difference +3.5
Model margin is 2.7 pts more toward Penn State than the market.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Penn State 21.7, Michigan 25.0 | Michigan 59%right winner | 0.3 | 7.7 |
| New formula | Penn State 19.4, Michigan 26.0 | Michigan 67%right winner | 3.6 | 6.4 |
Final: Penn State 18, Michigan 21. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Penn State vs Michigan: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Penn State | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 30.5#65 | 23.0#102 |
| Points allowed per game | 18.5#33 | 15.8#20 |
| Yards per play | 6.15#67 | 5.44#110 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.57#72 | 4.48#7 |
| Rushing yards per game | 142.5#106 | 139.6#112 |
| Net passing yards per game | 258.0#40 | 174.8#114 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 172.3#100 | 110.0#18 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 161.2#20 | 156.4#16 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.67#44 | 1.00#79 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.83#68 | 1.00#55 |
| Sacks per game | 1.33#111 | 2.20#49 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.33#44 | 1.60#60 |
| Stat | Penn State | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.04#91 | +0.08#78 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.02#38 | -0.15#3 |
| Success rate | 40.3%#107 | 42.4%#80 |
| Success rate allowed | 40.1%#60 | 33.4%#8 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.5%#78 | 10.8%#112 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 12.8%#97 | 9.0%#13 |
| Havoc rate | 15.5%#29 | 14.9%#45 |
| Havoc allowed | 13.1%#68 | 14.0%#94 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.31#54 | 3.86#92 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.89#76 | 3.11#15 |
| Average starting field position | own 34#14 | own 28#93 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 24#7 | own 30#90 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 65.2#72 | 57.8#129 |
| Stat | Penn State | Michigan |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.10#130 | +0.02#102 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.19#41 | +0.15#51 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.09#97 | -0.15#3 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.13#17 | -0.14#15 |
| Rushing success rate | 37.2%#118 | 40.6%#100 |
| Passing success rate | 43.3%#64 | 44.7%#49 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.8%#51 | 12.3%#13 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.8%#102 | 35.7%#33 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 25.5%#25 | 20.3%#5 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 36.1%#108 | 41.4%#73 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 30.7%#14 | 34.8%#39 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 58.3%#96 | 66.6%#57 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 64.7%#97 | 45.6%#19 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Penn State schedule · Michigan schedule · all Week 7 projections
Share this prediction
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Free weekly projections email
One email a week in season: the closest projected games, the biggest mismatches and how the model graded out last week. Email address only — no spam, unsubscribe any time.