Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Michigan 21, Minnesota 17 at Huntington Bank Stadium in Week 5. That is a lean: Michigan wins about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.9 points and 38.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans low scoring.
Michigan is 3-1, scoring 25.3 and allowing 14.8 points per game (+10.5 per game). Minnesota is 3-1, scoring 35 and allowing 19 points per game (+16 per game).
Minnesota's middle-of-the-pack defense (46th) should limit Michigan's middle-of-the-pack offense (67th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.7 points against an average defense). Expect Minnesota to find it hard going: Michigan's strong defense (18th) outranks Minnesota's below-average offense (84th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 25 points against an average defense).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Michigan by 26 and Minnesota by 19 about 80% of the time.
Minnesota gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Michigan is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on Fox.
Result: Michigan 14, Minnesota 20. Minnesota won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 9.9 points).
More: Michigan schedule · Minnesota schedule · all Week 5 projections
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Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
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