Matchup analysis
Our model projects Ohio State 34, Michigan 12 at Ohio Stadium in Week 13. That is a heavy edge: Ohio State wins about 93% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 22.3 points and 45.5 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans low scoring.
Michigan is 4-3 against the 15th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 20.3 and allowing 15.7 points per game (+4.6 per game). Ohio State (No. 2) is 6-1 against the 19th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 39.3 and allowing 13.4 points per game (+25.9 per game).
Ohio State's elite defense (2nd) should limit Michigan's middle-of-the-pack offense (67th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 26.8 points against an average defense). Ohio State's elite offense (4th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 40.2 points against an average defense) meets Michigan's strong defense (18th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Ohio State puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between a tie and Ohio State by 45 about 80% of the time.
Ohio State gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Ohio State by about 20.2. The game is on Fox.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Michigan / Ohio State) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Ohio State -13.5 | 46.5 | +425 / -575 |
| DraftKings | Ohio State -13.5 | 46.5 | +425 / -575 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Ohio State win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Ohio State -22.5 | 45.5 | 93% |
| Market consensus | Ohio State -13.5 | 46.5 | 82% |
| Blended projection | Ohio State -15 | 47.5 | 85% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Ohio State win probability
- model 93% · market (no-vig) 82% · difference +11 pts
- Margin
- model Ohio State -22.3 · market Ohio State -13.5 · difference +8.8 pts (Ohio State view)
- Total
- model 45.5 · market 46.5 · difference -1.0
Model margin is 8.8 pts more toward Ohio State than the market.
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Michigan vs Ohio State: stat comparison
| Stat | Michigan | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 20.3#119 | 39.3#10 |
| Points allowed per game | 15.7#15 | 13.4#4 |
| Yards per play | 5.10#127 | 7.21#8 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.54#5 | 4.33#2 |
| Rushing yards per game | 144.0#105 | 169.3#64 |
| Net passing yards per game | 158.6#128 | 324.9#6 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 109.0#12 | 106.3#8 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 166.0#16 | 163.0#14 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.14#105 | 1.14#106 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.29#23 | 1.00#52 |
| Sacks per game | 2.14#58 | 1.43#112 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.86#69 | 2.14#91 |
| Stat | Michigan | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.02#102 | +0.19#22 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.17#2 | -0.07#17 |
| Success rate | 40.1%#108 | 50.4%#11 |
| Success rate allowed | 34.7%#9 | 34.8%#11 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.4%#124 | 14.7%#26 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 8.1%#6 | 10.1%#23 |
| Havoc rate | 14.9%#47 | 14.8%#49 |
| Havoc allowed | 15.3%#116 | 13.0%#60 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.30#125 | 5.05#7 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.31#24 | 3.38#29 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#66 | own 32#34 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#94 | own 26#16 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 59.3#125 | 68.6#41 |
| Stat | Michigan | Ohio State |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.01#104 | +0.06#82 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.03#96 | +0.33#11 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.16#3 | -0.02#41 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.19#6 | -0.12#19 |
| Rushing success rate | 40.3%#103 | 47.4%#37 |
| Passing success rate | 39.9%#90 | 53.4%#8 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.3%#36 | 15.8%#44 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.8%#29 | 34.0%#37 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 24.2%#11 | 29.0%#61 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 40.0%#79 | 45.5%#35 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 34.7%#32 | 38.4%#65 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 55.6%#102 | 65.6%#48 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 43.8%#13 | 46.2%#17 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Michigan schedule · Ohio State schedule · all Week 13 projections
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