2026 schedule

Ohio State Buckeyes

6-1SOS #17

2026 season so far

Ohio State (No. 2) is 6-1 against the 17th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 39.3 and allowing 13.4 points per game (+25.9 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings Ohio State ranks 3rd of 139 FBS teams overall — 4th on offense and 2nd on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.

Next up: at USC in Week 9. We project Ohio State 35, USC 22 — Ohio State wins 81% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

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vs
Ball State Cardinals
0-1 · SOS #77
Win 56-3
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Ohio State by 27.5
Total 47.1
DraftKings
OSU -50.5
Total 55.5
Final Ohio State by 53. Ohio State beat the spread. 59 points — over the 55.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Ohio State -50.75 (open Ohio State -50) · O/U 56 (open 56.5) · model vs market -23.3 pts (Ohio State view)
BTN Ohio Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: hit (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded gamesBig favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: hit (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14
at
#4 Texas Longhorns
2-0 · SOS #1
Loss 23-24
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Ohio State by 3.8
Total 48.8
DraftKings
TEX -2.5
Total 50.5
Final Texas by 1. Ohio State beat the spread. 47 points — under the 50.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Texas -2.25 (open Texas -2) · O/U 50.75 (open 47.5) · ML +5 / -126 · Texas 53% no-vig · model vs market -6.1 pts, -13 pct pts (Texas view)
ABC DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Rising-total close dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: Record 179 hits, 115 misses (61% hit rate) over 294 graded gamesSpread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: hit (n=294) · Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open Explosive short dogShort dog · more explosive · 2014–25 Underdog getting 2.5 or less, much better in explosive-play rate: Record 211 hits, 186 misses (53% hit rate) over 397 graded games · 2026: 12-11Short dog · more explosive: missed
vs
Kent State Golden Flashes
1-2 · SOS #67
Win 59-3
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Ohio State by 16.4
Total 53.6
DraftKings
OSU -52.5
Total 58.5
Final Ohio State by 56. Ohio State beat the spread. 62 points — over the 58.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Ohio State -52.25 (open Ohio State -52.75) · O/U 58.75 (open 57.5) · model vs market -35.8 pts (Ohio State view)
Fox Ohio Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hit
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: hit (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
vs
Illinois Fighting Illini
2-2 · SOS #36
Win 42-19
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Ohio State by 28.7
Total 55.5
DraftKings
OSU -25.5
Total 53.5
Final Ohio State by 23. Illinois beat the spread. 61 points — over the 53.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Ohio State -25.5 (open Ohio State -27.25) · O/U 53.5 (open 54.25) · ML +1450 / -5250 · Ohio State 94% no-vig · model vs market +3.2 pts, +3 pct pts (Ohio State view)
Fox Ohio Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · A. Laughery RB · Low rush yds 42 (avg 53) · 78% · 113 ✗Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · C. Valentine RB · Low rush yds 49 (avg 59) · 78% · 47 ✓C. Dixon WR · Low rec yds 71 (avg 122) · 81% · 63 ✓
at
#14 Iowa Hawkeyes
4-1 · SOS #59
Win 31-14
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Ohio State by 11.9
Total 49.3
DraftKings
OSU -14.5
Total 46.5
Final Ohio State by 17. Ohio State beat the spread. 45 points — under the 46.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Ohio State -14.25 (open Ohio State -14) · O/U 46 (open 45.25) · ML -637.5 / +450 · Iowa 18% no-vig · model vs market +2.3 pts, +4 pct pts (Iowa view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 10 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KIOW)
CBS Kinnick Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · K. Moulton RB · Low rush yds 80 (avg 95) · 75% · 27 ✓J. Jackson RB · Low rush yds 41 (avg 52) · 70% · 72 ✗J. Smith WR · TD threat 69% · 2 ✓
vs
Maryland Terrapins
2-4 · SOS #43
Win 45-16
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Ohio State by 34.6
Total 55.8
DraftKings
OSU -31.5
Total 56.5
Final Ohio State by 29. Maryland beat the spread. 61 points — over the 56.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Ohio State -31.25 (open Ohio State -34.75) · O/U 56.25 · model vs market +3.4 pts (Ohio State view)
Game-time weather: Light rain, 61°F, Wind 5 mph ESE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KOSU)
BTN Ohio Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit
High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): hit (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded gamesBig favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: hit (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · I. Howard RB · Low rush yds 36 (avg 42) · 75% · 6 ✓J. Smith WR · TD threat 83% · 2 ✓C. Durr Jr. WR · Low rec yds 68 (avg 92) · 72% · 15 ✓
at
#5 Indiana Hoosiers
6-1 · SOS #28
Win 19-15
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Ohio State by 3.4
Total 51.6
DraftKings
OSU -3
Total 49.5
Final Ohio State by 4. Ohio State beat the spread. 34 points — under the 49.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Ohio State -2.75 · O/U 49.75 (open 49.5) · ML -163.5 / +140 · Indiana 40% no-vig · model vs market -0.6 pts, +1 pct pts (Indiana view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 52°F, Wind 7 mph ENE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KBMG)
Fox Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN)
Pregame calls · how each did
B. Jackson RB · Low rush yds 57 (avg 77) · 71% · 56 ✓T. Richard RB · Low rush yds 78 (avg 100) · 70% · 46 ✓J. Jackson RB · Low rush yds 46 (avg 59) · 68% · did not play
at
USC Trojans
6-2 · SOS #13
Sat, Oct 31, 11:30 PM
Week 9
Proj 35-22 · 81%
Our number
Ohio State by 13
Total 57
DraftKings
OSU -6.5
Total 51.5
We're 6.5 points higher on Ohio State than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Ohio State -6.5 · O/U 51.5 · ML -247.5 / +203 · USC 32% no-vig · model vs market -6.5 pts, -13 pct pts (USC view)
Kickoff forecast: Chance rain showers, 66°F, Wind 5 mph SSW, 51% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
NBC Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
Finishing big-yardage dog vs mid-total fav2026 combo · Held up Underdog covers: Favorite implied 24-30.5 + Underdog points per scoring opportunity: top-third FBS rank + Underdog yards per play: top-third FBS rank: Record 22 hits, 4 misses (85% hit rate) over 26 graded games (n=26; wk 5–7 11-1) · Favorite implied 24-30.5 + Underdog points per scoring opportunity: top-third FBS rank + Underdog yards per play: top-third FBS rank
J. Smith WR · TD threat 73%J. Maiava QB · Low pass yds 216 (avg 288) · 70%J. Sayin QB · Low pass yds 229 (avg 287) · 67%
vs
Oregon Ducks
4-3 · SOS #11
Sat, Nov 7, 8:30 PM
Week 10
Proj 31-21 · 75%
Our number
Ohio State by 10
Total 52
DraftKings
OSU -6
Total 52.5
We're 4 points higher on Ohio State than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Ohio State -6 · O/U 52.5 · ML +210 / -258 · Ohio State 69% no-vig · model vs market +4.0 pts, +6 pct pts (Ohio State view)
CBS Ohio Stadium
J. Smith WR · TD threat 74%B. Smith RB · Low rush yds 36 (avg 42) · 70%
vs
#20 Northwestern Wildcats
6-1 · SOS #46
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 37-14 · 93%
Our number
Ohio State by 23
Total 51
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Ohio Stadium
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded games
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · C. Komolafe RB · Low rush yds 59 (avg 79) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · A. Chiles QB · Low rush yds 22 (avg 26) · 78%J. Smith WR · TD threat 81%
at
Nebraska Cornhuskers
5-2 · SOS #44
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 32-20 · 79%
Our number
Ohio State by 12
Total 52
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Memorial Stadium (Lincoln, NE)
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · J. Rule RB · Low rush yds 52 (avg 65) · 75%Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · A. Colandrea QB · Low rush yds 42 (avg 48) · 75%Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · M. Nelson RB · Low rush yds 40 (avg 44) · 75%
vs
Michigan Wolverines
4-3 · SOS #10
Sat, Nov 28, 5:00 PM
Week 13
Proj 34-12 · 93%
Our number
Ohio State by 22
Total 46
DraftKings
OSU -13.5
Total 46.5
We're 8.5 points higher on Ohio State than the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Ohio State -13.5 · O/U 46.5 · ML +425 / -575 · Ohio State 82% no-vig · model vs market +8.5 pts, +11 pct pts (Ohio State view)
Fox Ohio Stadium
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded games
3rd-down fav vs red-zone-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 38 hits, 1 misses (97% hit rate) over 39 graded games (n=39; wk 5–7 21-1) · Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats TD-shy dog vs sloppy fav under2026 combo · Held up Under: Underdog red-zone TD rate: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 22 hits, 4 misses (85% hit rate) over 26 graded games (n=26; wk 5–7 11-1) · Underdog red-zone TD rate: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite turnovers (fewest): bottom-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats
Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · B. Underwood QB · Low rush yds 22 (avg 32) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · J. Marshall RB · Low rush yds 38 (avg 46) · 78%Elite 93-27 (typical 60%) · S. Hiter RB · Low rush yds 30 (avg 34) · 78%

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Ohio State Buckeyes stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

+27.9

3rd in FBS

Adj. offense

40.2

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

12.3

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	39.3	10 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	13.4	4 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	7.21	8 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	4.33	2 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	169.3	64 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	324.9	6 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	106.3	8 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	163.0	14 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	1.14	106 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	1.00	52 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	1.43	112 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	2.14	91 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	+0.19	22 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	-0.07	17 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	50.4%	11 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	34.8%	11 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	14.7%	26 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	10.1%	23 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	14.8%	49 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	13.0%	60 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	5.05	7 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	3.38	29 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 32	34 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 26	16 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	68.6	41 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	+0.06	82 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	+0.33	11 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	-0.02	41 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	-0.12	19 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	47.4%	37 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	53.4%	8 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	15.8%	44 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	34.0%	37 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	29.0%	61 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	45.5%	35 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	38.4%	65 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	65.6%	48 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	46.2%	17 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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