Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Ohio State 26.3, Texas 22.5 at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium in Week 2. That is a lean: Ohio State wins about 60% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 3.8 points and 48.7 combined points. Tags: upset alert.
Ohio State (No. 1) is 1-0, scoring 56 and allowing 3 points per game (+53 per game). Texas (No. 4) is 1-0, scoring 59 and allowing 7 points per game (+52 per game).
Ohio State's elite offense (2nd of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 42.1 points against an average defense) meets Texas's elite defense (5th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Ohio State puts up. Texas's elite offense (6th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 39.6 points against an average defense) meets Ohio State's elite defense (1st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Texas puts up.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Ohio State by 26 and Texas by 19 about 80% of the time.
Texas gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Ohio State is still favoured on the road, so the ratings gap is bigger than the value of playing at home. The game is on ABC.
Result: Ohio State 23, Texas 24. Texas won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 4.8 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Ohio State / Texas) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Texas -2 → Texas -2.25 | 47.5 → 50.75 | +5 / -126 |
| DraftKings | Texas -1.5 → Texas -2.5 | 50.5 | +120 / -142 |
| Bovada | Texas -2.5 → Texas -2 | 47.5 → 51 | -110 / -110 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Texas win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Ohio State -4 | 48.7 | 40% |
| Market consensus | Texas -2.5 | 50.8 | 53% |
| Blended projection | Texas -1.5 | 51.4 | 53% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Texas win probability
- model 40% · market (no-vig) 53% · difference -13 pts
- Margin
- model Ohio State -3.8 · market Texas -2.25 · difference -6.0 pts (Texas view)
- Total
- model 48.7 · market 50.75 · difference -2.0
Model margin is 6.0 pts more toward Ohio State than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Ohio State 26.3, Texas 22.5 | Ohio State 60%wrong winner | 4.8 | 1.7 |
| New formula | Ohio State 25.9, Texas 27.9 | Texas 55%right winner | 1.0 | 6.9 |
Final: Ohio State 23, Texas 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Ohio State vs Texas: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Ohio State | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 33.4#21 | 30.5#41 |
| Points allowed per game | 9.3#1 | 20.3#28 |
| Yards per play | 6.88#15 | 6.10#49 |
| Yards per play allowed | 4.20#2 | 5.17#23 |
| Rushing yards per game | 161.1#78 | 141.3#106 |
| Net passing yards per game | 269.1#24 | 247.4#49 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 107.2#6 | 124.9#16 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 120.5#1 | 225.9#86 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.71#18 | 0.69#15 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.93#78 | 1.54#15 |
| Sacks per game | 2.43#27 | 3.00#5 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.14#15 | 1.77#69 |
| Stat | Ohio State | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.17#9 | +0.04#56 |
| EPA per play allowed | -0.21#2 | -0.07#26 |
| Success rate | 51.8%#2 | 41.0%#94 |
| Success rate allowed | 34.1%#5 | 38.7%#31 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.9%#54 | 14.0%#24 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 7.4%#2 | 11.1%#39 |
| Havoc rate | 12.8%#61 | 13.9%#31 |
| Havoc allowed | 10.3%#22 | 13.1%#98 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.10#3 | 3.91#77 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 2.93#7 | 3.75#58 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#75 | own 33#14 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 26#4 | own 27#15 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 62.5#113 | 63.7#101 |
| Stat | Ohio State | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.00#87 | +0.01#81 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.33#3 | +0.07#55 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | -0.23#2 | -0.09#20 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.19#9 | -0.06#37 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.9%#52 | 42.9%#71 |
| Passing success rate | 58.3%#1 | 39.2%#94 |
| Run stuff rate | 18.2%#66 | 21.4%#117 |
| Passing-down success rate | 38.5%#7 | 32.6%#41 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 22.1%#3 | 27.2%#29 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 54.3%#2 | 39.8%#83 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 32.4%#9 | 36.0%#29 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 68.7%#29 | 62.8%#54 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 38.5%#2 | 63.9%#95 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Ohio State schedule · Texas schedule · all Week 2 projections
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