2026 schedule
Texas Longhorns
2026 season so far
Texas (No. 11) is 5-2 against the 1st-toughest schedule so far, scoring 30.7 and allowing 19.1 points per game (+11.6 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings Texas ranks 9th of 139 FBS teams overall — 11th on offense and 6th on defense. The defense is the stronger unit.
Next up: vs Mississippi State in Week 9. We project Texas 36, Mississippi State 19 — Texas wins 87% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
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- vs
Texas State Bobcats
0-1 · SOS #60
Win 59-7
Week 1
Our number· model now
Texas by 19
Total 57
DraftKings
TEX -29.5
Total 61.5
Final Texas by 52. Texas beat the spread. 66 points — over the 61.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Texas -29.5 (open Texas -30.5) · O/U 60.75 (open 59.5) · ML +2500 / -9500 · Texas 96% no-vig · model vs market -10.5 pts, -7 pct pts (Texas view)
ESPN DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium - vs
#1 Ohio State Buckeyes
1-1 · SOS #19
Win 24-23
Week 2
Our number· model now
Ohio State by 6
Total 50
DraftKings
TEX -2.5
Total 50.5
Final Texas by 1. Ohio State beat the spread. 47 points — under the 50.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Texas -2.25 (open Texas -2) · O/U 50.75 (open 47.5) · ML +5 / -126 · Texas 53% no-vig · model vs market -8.2 pts, -19 pct pts (Texas view)
ABC DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium - vs
UTSA Roadrunners
2-1 · SOS #73
Win 30-6
Week 3
Our number· model now
Texas by 19
Total 55
DraftKings
TEX -29.5
Total 58.5
Final Texas by 24. UTSA beat the spread. 36 points — under the 58.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Texas -29.75 · O/U 58.25 (open 57.75) · ML +1800 / -5000 · Texas 95% no-vig · model vs market -10.7 pts, -5 pct pts (Texas view)
SECN+ DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium - at
#14 Tennessee Volunteers
3-1 · SOS #30
Win 20-17
Week 4
Our number· model now
dead even
Total 50
DraftKings
TEX -5.5
Total 54.5
Final Texas by 3. Tennessee beat the spread. 37 points — under the 54.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Texas -5.5 (open Texas -5) · O/U 54.5 (open 56.25) · ML -192.5 / +162.5 · Tennessee 37% no-vig · model vs market +5.5 pts, +14 pct pts (Tennessee view)
ABC Neyland Stadium - vs
Oklahoma Sooners
3-2 · SOS #8
Loss 24-27
Week 6
Our number· model now
Texas by 8
Total 38
DraftKings
TEX -7.5
Total 40.5
Final Oklahoma by 3. Oklahoma beat the spread. 51 points — over the 40.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Texas -7.75 (open Texas -7) · O/U 40.75 (open 44.25) · ML -332.5 / +267.5 · Oklahoma 26% no-vig · model vs market -0.2 pts, +6 pct pts (Oklahoma view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 90°F, Wind 11 mph SSE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDAL)ABC Cotton Bowl - vs
Florida Gators
5-2 · SOS #11
Loss 24-27
Week 7
Our number· model now
Texas by 10
Total 54
DraftKings
TEX -13.5
Total 51.5
Final Florida by 3. Florida beat the spread. 51 points — under the 51.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Texas -13 (open Texas -9.75) · O/U 51.25 (open 53) · ML +352.5 / -472.5 · Texas 79% no-vig · model vs market -3.0 pts, -4 pct pts (Texas view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 63°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KATT)ABC DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium - vs
#7 Ole Miss Rebels
5-2 · SOS #6
Win 34-27
Week 8
Our number· model now
Texas by 5
Total 55
DraftKings
TEX -3
Total 55.5
Final Texas by 7. Texas beat the spread. 61 points — over the 55.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Texas -3.5 · O/U 54.5 · ML +130 / -160 · Texas 61% no-vig · model vs market +1.5 pts, +0 pct pts (Texas view)
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 79°F, Wind 9 mph ESE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KAUS)ABC DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium - vs
Mississippi State Bulldogs
4-3 · SOS #5
Sat, Oct 31, 11:30 PM
Week 9
Proj 36-19 · 87%
Our number
Texas by 17
Total 55
DraftKings
TEX -21
Total 50.5
We're 4 points higher on Mississippi State than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Texas -20.75 · O/U 50.5 · ML +852 / -1600 · Texas 90% no-vig · model vs market -3.7 pts, -3 pct pts (Texas view)
Kickoff forecast: Slight chance showers and thunderstorms, 79°F, Wind calm, 21% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDTESPN DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium - at
#23 Missouri Tigers
5-2 · SOS #28
Sat, Nov 7 · TBD
Week 10
Proj 26-20 · 66%
Our number
Texas by 6
Total 46
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Memorial Stadium - at
#15 LSU Tigers
6-2 · SOS #18
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 24-27 · 42%
Our number
LSU by 3
Total 51
DraftKings
TEX -2.5
Total 54.5
We're 5.5 points higher on LSU than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Texas -2.5 · O/U 54.5 · ML -142 / +120 · LSU 44% no-vig · model vs market +5.5 pts, +14 pct pts (LSU view)
Tiger Stadium (LA) - vs
Arkansas Razorbacks
3-4 · SOS #9
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 36-13 · 94%
Our number
Texas by 23
Total 49
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium - at
Texas A&M Aggies
4-4 · SOS #29
Sat, Nov 28, 12:30 AM
Week 13
Proj 25-22 · 58%
Our number
Texas by 3
Total 47
DraftKings
TEX -2.5
Total 53.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Texas -2.5 · O/U 53.5 · ML -142 / +120 · Texas A&M 44% no-vig · model vs market -0.5 pts, -2 pct pts (Texas A&M view)
ABC Kyle Field
Times shown in your local time
Texas Longhorns stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
+19.6
9th in FBS
Adj. offense
34.9
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
15.2
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 30.7 | 57 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 19.1 | 29 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 5.72 | 95 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 4.19 | 1 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 165.4 | 72 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 217.7 | 78 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 124.7 | 27 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 158.7 | 12 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 1.43 | 129 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 1.00 | 48 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 2.86 | 13 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 2.71 | 118 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | -0.02 | 120 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | -0.10 | 12 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 42.5% | 73 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 34.0% | 5 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 11.5% | 100 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 7.3% | 3 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 18.3% | 5 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 16.1% | 127 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.95 | 13 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 3.12 | 13 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 29 | 76 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 29 | 61 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 67.0 | 60 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | -0.02 | 116 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | -0.02 | 113 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | -0.03 | 37 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | -0.15 | 10 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 44.9% | 61 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 40.1% | 86 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 18.4% | 90 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 33.8% | 40 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 21.5% | 5 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 39.2% | 89 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 33.0% | 19 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 64.3% | 62 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 47.1% | 21 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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