Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Texas 34.4, Florida 20.5 at DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium in Week 7. That is a solid edge: Texas wins about 82% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.9 points and 54.9 combined points.
Florida is 4-2, scoring 41.7 and allowing 29 points per game (+12.7 per game). Texas (No. 7) is 4-1, scoring 31.4 and allowing 16 points per game (+15.4 per game).
Florida's strong offense (16th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.3 points against an average defense) meets Texas's elite defense (4th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Florida puts up. The most lopsided unit battle: Texas's elite offense (12th of 138 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 35.7 points against an average defense) against Florida's middle-of-the-pack defense (54th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Florida by 9 and Texas by 36 about 80% of the time.
Texas gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Texas by about 11.8. The game is on ABC.
Result: Florida 27, Texas 24. Florida won, so this goes down as a miss for the model (margin off by 16.9 points).
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Florida / Texas) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Texas -9.75 → Texas -13 | 53 → 51.25 | +352.5 / -472.5 |
| DraftKings | Texas -9.5 → Texas -13.5 | 53.5 → 51.5 | +400 / -535 |
| Bovada | Texas -10 → Texas -12.5 | 52.5 → 51 | +305 / -410 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Texas win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Texas -14 | 54.9 | 82% |
| Market consensus | Texas -13 | 51.3 | 79% |
| Blended projection | Texas -13 | 52.2 | 82% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Texas win probability
- model 82% · market (no-vig) 79% · difference +3 pts
- Margin
- model Texas -13.9 · market Texas -13 · difference +0.9 pts (Texas view)
- Total
- model 54.9 · market 51.25 · difference +3.6
Model margin is 0.9 pts more toward Texas than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Florida 20.5, Texas 34.4 | Texas 82%wrong winner | 16.9 | 3.9 |
| New formula | Florida 20.3, Texas 34.9 | Texas 83%wrong winner | 17.6 | 4.3 |
Final: Florida 27, Texas 24. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Florida vs Texas: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Florida | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 41.7#12 | 31.4#59 |
| Points allowed per game | 29.0#113 | 16.0#21 |
| Yards per play | 6.87#22 | 5.65#100 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.72#82 | 4.25#3 |
| Rushing yards per game | 208.7#33 | 158.4#82 |
| Net passing yards per game | 267.3#30 | 233.8#64 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 138.5#47 | 116.6#26 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 256.2#122 | 147.2#9 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.83#62 | 1.20#107 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.83#64 | 0.80#80 |
| Sacks per game | 2.83#17 | 3.60#4 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.50#51 | 2.40#107 |
| Stat | Florida | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.24#16 | +0.03#99 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.19#126 | -0.14#6 |
| Success rate | 48.4%#24 | 43.8%#61 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.8%#112 | 34.2%#10 |
| Explosive play rate | 15.5%#18 | 11.3%#106 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 11.5%#64 | 8.0%#6 |
| Havoc rate | 14.2%#66 | 18.9%#3 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.4%#55 | 15.0%#114 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 5.24#7 | 4.80#20 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.62#119 | 2.95#7 |
| Average starting field position | own 30#59 | own 31#48 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 29#64 | own 27#41 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 69.3#33 | 69.4#30 |
| Stat | Florida | Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.11#52 | -0.05#119 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.40#5 | +0.11#67 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.20#133 | -0.03#41 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.19#109 | -0.23#4 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.7%#60 | 45.0%#66 |
| Passing success rate | 52.2%#14 | 42.5%#71 |
| Run stuff rate | 17.5%#77 | 17.3%#72 |
| Passing-down success rate | 35.2%#37 | 34.6%#40 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 35.6%#119 | 19.3%#4 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.6%#38 | 44.6%#52 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.7%#123 | 30.4%#12 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 78.6%#8 | 66.7%#54 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 66.7%#103 | 36.4%#3 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Florida schedule · Texas schedule · all Week 7 projections
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