2026 schedule

Florida Gators

5-2SOS #12

2026 season so far

Florida (No. 17) is 5-2 against the 12th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 39.6 and allowing 28.3 points per game (+11.3 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings Florida ranks 24th of 139 FBS teams overall — 13th on offense and 43rd on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.

Next up: at Georgia in Week 9. We project Florida 24, Georgia 37 — Florida wins 20% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 11:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

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vs
Florida Atlantic Owls
0-1 · SOS #120
Win 66-21
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Florida by 11.2
Total 56.8
DraftKings
FLA -26.5
Total 59.5
Final Florida by 45. Florida beat the spread. 87 points — over the 59.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Florida -26.5 (open Florida -25.5) · O/U 59.5 (open 56.5) · ML +1250 / -4450 · Florida 93% no-vig · model vs market -15.3 pts, -16 pct pts (Florida view)
SEC Network Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
vs
Campbell Fighting Camels
2-1 · SOS #109
Win 52-3
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Florida by 37.1
Total 54.7
DraftKings
FLA -51.5
Total 66.5
Final Florida by 49. Campbell beat the spread. 55 points — under the 66.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Florida -51.5 (open Florida -50) · O/U 66.75 (open 65.75) · model vs market -14.4 pts (Florida view)
SECN+ Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hit
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: missed (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded gamesBig favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: missed (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14
at
Auburn Tigers
2-1 · SOS #3
Win 44-39
Week 3
Our number· pregame
Auburn by 3.3
Total 54.9
DraftKings
FLA -2.5
Total 53.5
Final Florida by 5. Florida beat the spread. 83 points — over the 53.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Florida -2.5 (open Florida -0.5) · O/U 53.25 · ML -135 / +114.5 · Auburn 45% no-vig · model vs market +5.8 pts, +14 pct pts (Auburn view)
ESPN Jordan-Hare Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed
vs
#4 Ole Miss Rebels
3-1 · SOS #6
Win 52-28
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Florida by 5.9
Total 61.9
DraftKings
FLA -4
Total 58.5
Final Florida by 24. Florida beat the spread. 80 points — over the 58.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Florida -4 (open Florida -2.5) · O/U 58.5 (open 59.25) · ML +141 / -167.5 · Florida 60% no-vig · model vs market +1.9 pts, +5 pct pts (Florida view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 82°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KGNV)
ABC Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: hit
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded gamesBlowout Alert: hit
Short home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded gamesHome favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: hit (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game
J. Baugh RB · TD threat 87% · 3 ✓V. Brown III WR · Low rec yds 57 (avg 82) · 75% · 25 ✓K. Lacy RB · Low rush yds 52 (avg 64) · 70% · did not play
at
#25 Missouri Tigers
4-1 · SOS #30
Loss 17-45
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Florida by 3.2
Total 57.6
DraftKings
FLA -5.5
Total 57.5
Final Missouri by 28. Missouri beat the spread. 62 points — over the 57.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Florida -5.5 (open Florida -3.25) · O/U 57.75 (open 55) · ML -214 / +177.5 · Missouri 35% no-vig · model vs market +2.3 pts, +7 pct pts (Missouri view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 72°F, Wind 10 mph ENE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KHUF)
ABC Memorial Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: hit
Rising-total close dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: Record 179 hits, 115 misses (61% hit rate) over 294 graded gamesSpread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: hit (n=294) · Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): hit (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)
J. Baugh RB · TD threat 83% · 0 ✗J. Baugh RB · Low rush yds 111 (avg 150) · 72% · 13 ✓D. Clark RB · Low rush yds 50 (avg 65) · 72% · 1 ✓
vs
South Carolina Gamecocks
3-3 · SOS #23
Loss 19-38
Week 6
Our number· pregame
Florida by 7.1
Total 61.1
DraftKings
FLA -10.5
Total 59.5
Final South Carolina by 19. South Carolina beat the spread. 57 points — under the 59.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Florida -10.5 (open Florida -14.25) · O/U 59.5 (open 59.25) · ML +352.5 / -472.5 · Florida 79% no-vig · model vs market -3.4 pts, -11 pct pts (Florida view)
Game-time weather: Mostly cloudy, 86°F, Wind 13 mph SE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KGNV)
SEC Network Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: missed
High Scoring AlertHigh Scoring Alert: Record 13 hits, 7 misses (65% hit rate) over 20 graded gamesHigh Scoring Alert: missed
High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): hit (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)
J. Baugh RB · TD threat 78% · 1 ✓L. Sellers QB · Low rush yds 63 (avg 78) · 70% · 20 ✓
at
#7 Texas Longhorns
4-2 · SOS #1
Win 27-24
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Texas by 13.9
Total 54.9
DraftKings
TEX -13.5
Total 51.5
Final Florida by 3. Florida beat the spread. 51 points — under the 51.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Texas -13 (open Texas -9.75) · O/U 51.25 (open 53) · ML +352.5 / -472.5 · Texas 79% no-vig · model vs market +0.9 pts, +3 pct pts (Texas view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 63°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KATT)
ABC DKR-Texas Memorial Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · J. Baugh RB · Low rush yds 85 (avg 112) · 75% · 91 ✓Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · A. Philo QB · Low rush yds 17 (avg 17) · 75% · did not playJ. Baugh RB · TD threat 69% · 1 ✓
vs
#3 Georgia Bulldogs
6-1 · SOS #52
Sat, Oct 31, 7:30 PM
Week 9
Proj 24-37 · 20%
Our number
Georgia by 13
Total 61
DraftKings
UGA -11.5
Total 55.5
We're 1.5 points higher on Georgia than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Georgia -11.5 · O/U 55.75 · ML +350 / -450 · Georgia 79% no-vig · model vs market +1.5 pts, +1 pct pts (Georgia view)
Kickoff forecast (retractable roof): Mostly cloudy, 72°F, Wind 15 mph E, 4% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
ABC Mercedes-Benz Stadium
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
High Scoring AlertHigh Scoring Alert: Record 13 hits, 7 misses (65% hit rate) over 20 graded games
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · J. Baugh RB · Low rush yds 83 (avg 109) · 75%J. Baugh RB · TD threat 65%
vs
Oklahoma Sooners
4-3 · SOS #9
Sun, Nov 8, 12:45 AM
Week 10
Proj 25-23 · 54%
Our number
Florida by 2
Total 48
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
SEC Network Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games
J. Baugh RB · TD threat 75%
at
#9 Kentucky Wildcats
7-1 · SOS #4
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 29-29 · 52%
Our number
dead even
Total 58
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Kroger Field
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded games
J. Baugh RB · TD threat 73%J. Baugh RB · Low rush yds 84 (avg 109) · 69%
vs
Vanderbilt Commodores
3-5 · SOS #16
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 36-23 · 80%
Our number
Florida by 13
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games
Elite 156-53 (typical 60%) · J. Curtis QB · Low rush yds 19 (avg 21) · 75%J. Baugh RB · TD threat 82%
at
Florida State Seminoles
3-4 · SOS #13
Fri, Nov 27, 8:30 PM
Week 13
Proj 31-31 · 51%
Our number
dead even
Total 62
DraftKings
FLA -4.5
Total 52.5
We're 4.5 points higher on Florida State than the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: Florida -4.5 · O/U 52.5 · ML -205 / +170 · Florida State 36% no-vig · model vs market +4.5 pts, +13 pct pts (Florida State view)
ABC Doak Campbell Stadium
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
High Scoring AlertHigh Scoring Alert: Record 13 hits, 7 misses (65% hit rate) over 20 graded games
Flip-flop totals underStudy · Lean Under: Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: Record 307 hits, 231 misses (57% hit rate) over 538 graded games (n=538) · Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over
Finishing big-yardage dog vs mid-total fav2026 combo · Held up Underdog covers: Favorite implied 24-30.5 + Underdog points per scoring opportunity: top-third FBS rank + Underdog yards per play: top-third FBS rank: Record 22 hits, 4 misses (85% hit rate) over 26 graded games (n=26; wk 5–7 11-1) · Favorite implied 24-30.5 + Underdog points per scoring opportunity: top-third FBS rank + Underdog yards per play: top-third FBS rank Mid-total dog vs 3rd-down-leaky fav under2026 combo · Weak Under: Underdog implied 21-27.5 + Favorite third-down rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Home team points allowed: bottom-third FBS rank: Record 25 hits, 7 misses (78% hit rate) over 32 graded games (n=32; wk 5–7 11-2) · Underdog implied 21-27.5 + Favorite third-down rate allowed: bottom-third FBS rank + Home team points allowed: bottom-third FBS rank
J. Baugh RB · TD threat 83%

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Florida Gators stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

+11.5

24th in FBS

Adj. offense

34.7

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

23.3

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	39.6	9 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	28.3	106 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	6.38	41 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	5.70	76 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	203.0	30 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	249.7	45 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	137.0	45 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	241.0	111 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	0.71	43 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	0.86	66 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	3.14	8 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	1.43	44 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	+0.21	16 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	+0.14	118 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	45.7%	40 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	44.5%	110 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	13.4%	55 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	11.1%	54 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	15.5%	31 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	13.2%	66 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	5.02	8 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	4.70	128 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 31	48 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 28	52 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	71.0	14 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	+0.09	60 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	+0.36	8 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	+0.12	116 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	+0.16	106 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	43.2%	81 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	48.9%	21 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	18.2%	87 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	31.9%	62 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	35.4%	122 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	45.7%	33 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	44.1%	118 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	78.1%	6 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	65.2%	95 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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