Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Florida 34, Florida Atlantic 22.8 at Ben Hill Griffin Stadium in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Florida wins about 77% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 11.2 points and 56.8 combined points.
Florida Atlantic has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Florida has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
Florida Atlantic's middle-of-the-pack offense (55th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.1 points against an average defense) meets Florida's middle-of-the-pack defense (43rd) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Florida Atlantic puts up. Florida's elite offense (13th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.7 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Florida Atlantic's struggling defense (135th); that mismatch is where most of Florida's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Florida Atlantic by 11 and Florida by 34 about 80% of the time.
Florida gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Florida by about 9.1. The game is on SEC Network.
Result: Florida Atlantic 21, Florida 66. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 33.8 points and the total by 30.2.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Florida Atlantic / Florida) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Florida -25.5 → Florida -26.5 | 56.5 → 59.5 | +1250 / -4450 |
| Bovada | Florida -25.5 → Florida -26.5 | 56.5 → 59.5 | +1300 / -6500 |
| DraftKings | Florida -25.5 → Florida -26.5 | 59.5 | +1200 / -2400 |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Florida win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Florida -11 | 56.8 | 77% |
| Market consensus | Florida -26.5 | 59.5 | 93% |
| Blended projection | Florida -24 | 59.4 | 95% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Florida win probability
- model 77% · market (no-vig) 93% · difference -16 pts
- Margin
- model Florida -11.2 · market Florida -26.5 · difference -15.3 pts (Florida view)
- Total
- model 56.8 · market 59.5 · difference -2.7
Model margin is 15.3 pts more toward Florida Atlantic than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Florida Atlantic 22.8, Florida 34.0 | Florida 77%right winner | 33.8 | 30.2 |
| New formula | Florida Atlantic 15.0, Florida 42.9 | Florida 95%right winner | 17.1 | 29.2 |
Final: Florida Atlantic 21, Florida 66. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Florida Atlantic vs Florida: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | Florida Atlantic | Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 29.5#51 | 21.6#111 |
| Points allowed per game | 36.3#132 | 24.0#60 |
| Yards per play | 6.02#59 | 5.80#74 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.03#94 | 5.93#83 |
| Rushing yards per game | 118.8#127 | 146.4#98 |
| Net passing yards per game | 334.5#1 | 213.1#87 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 213.8#127 | 160.3#65 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 208.6#52 | 221.6#74 |
| Turnovers per game | 2.08#136 | 1.42#112 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.58#127 | 1.08#62 |
| Sacks per game | 1.92#78 | 2.00#65 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.75#66 | 1.75#65 |
| Stat | Florida Atlantic | Florida |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.08#41 | -0.03#105 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07#110 | +0.01#72 |
| Success rate | 42.5%#68 | 41.8%#79 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.4%#106 | 43.8%#96 |
| Explosive play rate | 12.1%#78 | 12.7%#60 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.4%#123 | 12.6%#74 |
| Havoc rate | 11.3%#105 | 10.9%#111 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.7%#62 | 12.1%#71 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.74#94 | 4.14#44 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.54#128 | 3.58#39 |
| Average starting field position | own 31#43 | own 28#112 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 32#125 | own 31#101 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 75.3#4 | 62.0#119 |
| Stat | Florida Atlantic | Florida |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | -0.04#102 | +0.07#44 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.15#29 | -0.11#113 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.12#127 | -0.04#38 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.01#73 | +0.07#92 |
| Rushing success rate | 41.4%#94 | 47.3%#29 |
| Passing success rate | 42.6%#54 | 37.0%#108 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.9%#48 | 14.3%#13 |
| Passing-down success rate | 32.1%#44 | 26.8%#112 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 28.3%#50 | 28.3%#48 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 38.6%#94 | 37.8%#102 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.9%#112 | 43.9%#106 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 49.4%#122 | 65.7%#43 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 67.5%#114 | 56.1%#44 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Florida Atlantic schedule · Florida schedule · all Week 1 projections
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