2026 schedule

Florida Atlantic Owls

5-2SOS #120

2026 season so far

Florida Atlantic is 5-2 against the 120th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37.3 and allowing 34 points per game (+3.3 per game).

In our opponent-adjusted ratings Florida Atlantic ranks 106th of 139 FBS teams overall — 55th on offense and 135th on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.

Next up: at North Texas in Week 9. We project Florida Atlantic 35, North Texas 49 — Florida Atlantic wins 18% of the time.

Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.

Regular season

12 games

Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.

21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.

at
Florida Gators
1-0 · SOS #12
Loss 21-66
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Florida by 11.2
Total 56.8
DraftKings
FLA -26.5
Total 59.5
Final Florida by 45. Florida beat the spread. 87 points — over the 59.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
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Market lines: Florida -26.5 (open Florida -25.5) · O/U 59.5 (open 56.5) · ML +1250 / -4450 · Florida 93% no-vig · model vs market -15.3 pts, -16 pct pts (Florida view)
SEC Network Ben Hill Griffin Stadium
vs
Navy Midshipmen
1-1 · SOS #99
Win 38-30
Week 2
Our number· pregame
Navy by 5.3
Total 59.5
DraftKings
NAVY -4.5
Total 59.5
Final Florida Atlantic by 8. Florida Atlantic beat the spread. 68 points — over the 59.5. The book was closer. Both totals were equally close.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Navy -4.5 (open Navy -6) · O/U 59.5 (open 58.25) · ML -211.5 / +174.5 · Florida Atlantic 35% no-vig · model vs market -0.8 pts, +1 pct pts (Florida Atlantic view)
ESPNU Flagler Credit Union Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
Pattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnder · high total, night game: missed · Under · high total, night game → went under 16 of 26 from week 4 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 3 of 9
Rising-total close dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: Record 179 hits, 115 misses (61% hit rate) over 294 graded gamesSpread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open: hit (n=294) · Spread 7 or less and the total rose 1.5+ since the open
vs
Florida International Panthers
1-2 · SOS #137
Win 16-10
Week 3
Our number· pregame
dead even
Total 55.6
DraftKings
FAU -5.5
Total 62.5
Final Florida Atlantic by 6. Florida Atlantic beat the spread. 26 points — under the 62.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Florida Atlantic -5.25 (open Florida Atlantic -7.25) · O/U 62.25 (open 62.5) · ML +197.5 / -240 · Florida Atlantic 67% no-vig · model vs market -5.2 pts, -18 pct pts (Florida Atlantic view)
ESPN+ Flagler Credit Union Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: hitUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missed
Short home fav vs hot dogStudy · Moderate Favorite wins: Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: Record 194 hits, 68 misses (74% hit rate) over 262 graded gamesHome favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game: hit (n=262) · Home favorite by 3.5–7, underdog won its last game
at
UL Monroe Warhawks
0-4 · SOS #97
Win 45-17
Week 4
Our number· pregame
Florida Atlantic by 2
Total 61.2
DraftKings
FAU -11.5
Total 58.5
Final Florida Atlantic by 28. Florida Atlantic beat the spread. 62 points — over the 58.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Florida Atlantic -11.5 (open Florida Atlantic -13.5) · O/U 58.25 · ML -535 / +390 · UL Monroe 20% no-vig · model vs market +9.5 pts, +25 pct pts (UL Monroe view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 73°F, Wind calm.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KMLU)
ESPN+ Malone Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedCoin flipCoin flip: Record 86 hits, 94 misses (48% hit rate) over 180 graded gamesCoin flip: missedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesUpset alert: missedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: hit
Pattern · Watching Under · high total, night game: Record 16 hits, 10 misses (62% hit rate) over 26 graded gamesUnder · high total, night game: missed · Under · high total, night game → went under 16 of 26 from week 4 · base 51% · since Oct 17: 3 of 9
High-total bounce-back dogStudy · Moderate Underdog covers: Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): Record 320 hits, 237 misses (57% hit rate) over 557 graded gamesTotal 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on): missed (n=557) · Total 55–59.5, underdog missed the spread last game (week 3 on)Flip-flop totals underStudy · Lean Under: Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: Record 307 hits, 231 misses (57% hit rate) over 538 graded gamesUnderdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: missed (n=538) · Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over
Elite 118-39 (typical 62%) · B. Roland RB · Low rush yds 58 (avg 44) · 75% · 0 ✓K. Valsin WR · Low catches 6.5 (avg 8) · 68% · 9 ✗E. Messer WR · Low catches 6.4 (avg 7.7) · 65% · 5 ✓
vs
Texas Southern Tigers
1-4 · SOS #138
Win 66-10
Week 5
Our number· pregame
Florida Atlantic by 25.7
Total 63.3
DraftKings
FAU -47.5
Total 62.5
Final Florida Atlantic by 56. Florida Atlantic beat the spread. 76 points — over the 62.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Florida Atlantic -45.75 (open Florida Atlantic -43.75) · O/U 62 (open 60.75) · model vs market -20.0 pts (Florida Atlantic view)
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 84°F, Wind 7 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPMP)
ESPN+ Flagler Credit Union Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
ExpectedFavorite holdsFavorite holds: Record 227 hits, 18 misses (93% hit rate) over 245 graded gamesFavorite holds: hitBlowout brewingBlowout brewing: Record 137 hits, 30 misses (82% hit rate) over 167 graded gamesBlowout brewing: hitLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded gamesLeans high scoring: hit
Non-con mismatch overStudy · Strong Over: Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: Record 429 hits, 313 misses (58% hit rate) over 742 graded gamesNon-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14: hit (n=742) · Non-conference mismatch: underdog's implied total under 14
Blowout big fav vs low-total dog over2026 combo · Held up Over: Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: Record 69 hits, 37 misses (65% hit rate) over 106 graded gamesBig favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14: hit (n=106; wk 5–7 13-1) · Big favorite (21+) + Blowout brewing + Underdog implied <14
at
Army Black Knights
4-2 · SOS #107
Loss 24-56
Week 7
Our number· pregame
Army by 5.3
Total 57.9
DraftKings
ARMY -2.5
Total 55.5
Final Army by 32. Army beat the spread. 80 points — over the 55.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
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Market lines: Army -2.25 (open Army -3) · O/U 55.5 (open 58) · ML +117.5 / -137.5 · Army 56% no-vig · model vs market +3.1 pts, +8 pct pts (Army view)
Game-time weather: Mostly cloudy, 50°F, Wind 11 mph N.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KSWF)
CBSSN Michie Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
Flip-flop totals underStudy · Lean Under: Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: Record 307 hits, 231 misses (57% hit rate) over 538 graded gamesUnderdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over: missed (n=538) · Underdog implied 21–28, favorite's last game went under, underdog's went over
K. Valsin WR · Low catches 6.4 (avg 8) · 66% · 7 ✓
vs
Rice Owls
1-7 · SOS #66
Win 51-49
Week 8
Our number· pregame
Florida Atlantic by 8.4
Total 56.6
DraftKings
FAU -9.5
Total 55.5
Final Florida Atlantic by 2. Rice beat the spread. 100 points — over the 55.5. Our number was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Florida Atlantic -9.5 · O/U 54.5 · ML +270 / -350 · Florida Atlantic 75% no-vig · model vs market -1.1 pts, -4 pct pts (Florida Atlantic view)
Game-time weather: Partly cloudy, 82°F, Wind 17 mph NNE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KPMP)
ESPNU Flagler Credit Union Stadium
Pregame calls · how each did
3rd-down fav vs red-zone-poor dog2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 38 hits, 1 misses (97% hit rate) over 39 graded gamesUnderdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: hit (n=39; wk 5–7 21-1) · Underdog points per scoring opportunity: bottom-third FBS rank + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats Unranked 3rd-down fav2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 53 hits, 6 misses (90% hit rate) over 59 graded gamesNeither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: hit (n=59; wk 5–7 26-3) · Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats
K. Valsin WR · TD threat 66% · 0 ✗
at
North Texas Mean Green
5-2 · SOS #84
Thu, Oct 29, 11:30 PM
Week 9
Proj 35-49 · 18%
Our number
North Texas by 14
Total 84
DraftKings
UNT -13.5
Total 77.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
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Market lines: North Texas -13.5 · O/U 77.25 · ML +390 / -540.5 · North Texas 81% no-vig · model vs market +0.5 pts, +1 pct pts (North Texas view)
Kickoff forecast: Slight chance rain showers, 80°F, Wind 10 mph S, 22% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDT
ESPN DATCU Stadium
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
Blowout AlertBlowout Alert: Record 62 hits, 47 misses, 1 push (57% hit rate) over 109 graded games
Unranked 3rd-down fav2026 combo · Held up Favorite wins: Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats: Record 53 hits, 6 misses (90% hit rate) over 59 graded games (n=59; wk 5–7 26-3) · Neither team ranked + Favorite third-down rate: top-third FBS rank + Both teams 2+ games of 2026 stats High-success unranked league dog2026 combo · Held up Underdog covers: Conference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third: Record 53 hits, 25 misses (68% hit rate) over 78 graded games (n=78; wk 5–7 29-12) · Conference game + Neither team ranked + Both teams' success rate combined: top third
J. White RB · TD threat 92%J. Stevenson WR · TD threat 74%T. Jackson QB · High pass yds 334 (avg 310) · 54%
vs
UTSA Roadrunners
7-1 · SOS #73
Fri, Nov 6, 12:30 AM
Week 10
Proj 31-41 · 26%
Our number
UTSA by 10
Total 72
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPN Flagler Credit Union Stadium
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
A. Peterson RB · TD threat 83%O. McCown QB · High pass yds 249 (avg 219) · 60%
at
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
4-4 · SOS #98
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 30-36 · 34%
Our number
Tulsa by 6
Total 66
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
H. A. Chapman Stadium
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
E. Messer WR · TD threat 67%D. Alston RB · TD threat 65%B. Hayes QB · High pass yds 256 (avg 224) · 55%
vs
South Florida Bulls
5-2 · SOS #133
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 27-34 · 33%
Our number
South Florida by 7
Total 61
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Flagler Credit Union Stadium
ExpectedUpset alertUpset alert: Record 68 hits, 143 misses (32% hit rate) over 211 graded gamesLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games
D. Crowther RB · TD threat 78%M. Van Buren Jr. QB · High pass yds 214 (avg 181) · 61%
at
East Carolina Pirates
3-4 · SOS #95
Fri, Nov 27 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 27-36 · 28%
Our number
East Carolina by 9
Total 63
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Dowdy-Ficklen Stadium
ExpectedLeans high scoringLeans high scoring: Record 48 hits, 44 misses (52% hit rate) over 92 graded games

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Florida Atlantic Owls stats: basic, advanced and situational

Power rating

-9.2

105th in FBS

Adj. offense

28.1

pts vs avg defense

Adj. defense

37.3

pts allowed vs avg offense

Basic stats

Box-score numbers per game.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Points per gameEvery point scored, every game.	37.3	17 / 138
Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game.	34.0	130 / 138
Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays).	5.64	102 / 138
Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents.	7.09	135 / 138
Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles.	137.3	113 / 138
Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage.	289.1	12 / 138
Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards.	264.0	137 / 138
Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards.	187.0	42 / 138
Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost.	0.43	22 / 138
Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries.	0.86	77 / 138
Sacks per gameSacks by this defense.	1.14	126 / 138
Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense.	1.86	75 / 138

Advanced stats

Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good.	+0.17	34 / 138
EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better.	+0.17	123 / 138
Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th.	46.8%	33 / 138
Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate.	41.9%	82 / 138
Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays.	9.9%	130 / 138
Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents.	14.7%	128 / 138
Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up.	13.1%	92 / 138
Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play.	12.9%	58 / 138
Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40.	4.11	70 / 138
Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40.	3.86	75 / 138
Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average.	own 32	32 / 138
Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin.	own 27	38 / 138
Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure.	75.6	4 / 138

Situational stats

Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.

Stat	2026	FBS rank
Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs.	+0.13	43 / 138
Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included.	+0.20	35 / 138
Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play.	+0.25	136 / 138
Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback.	+0.05	69 / 138
Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule.	44.2%	73 / 138
Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule.	51.7%	13 / 138
Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line.	16.2%	55 / 138
Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+.	36.5%	25 / 138
Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs.	30.6%	78 / 138
Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself.	52.7%	12 / 138
Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions.	39.8%	85 / 138
Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown.	65.2%	56 / 138
Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate.	69.6%	120 / 138

Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.

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