Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Florida Atlantic 44.5, Texas Southern 18.8 at Flagler Credit Union Stadium in Week 5. That is a heavy edge: Florida Atlantic wins about 95% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 25.7 points and 63.2 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, blowout brewing, leans high scoring.
Texas Southern is 1-3, scoring 26.5 and allowing 44 points per game (-17.5 per game). Florida Atlantic is 3-1, scoring 30 and allowing 30.8 points per game (-0.8 per game).
Texas Southern plays in the FCS, so this is a cross-division game. Our ratings put FCS teams on the FBS scale through a measured gap from every FBS-vs-FCS result, which is why Florida Atlantic's projected edge is large even if the records look similar. Cross-division projections are a little less precise than FBS-vs-FBS ones.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Florida Atlantic by 3 and Florida Atlantic by 48 about 80% of the time.
Florida Atlantic gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Florida Atlantic by about 23.6. The game is on ESPN+.
Result: Texas Southern 10, Florida Atlantic 66. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 30.3 points and the total by 12.8.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Texas Southern / Florida Atlantic) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Florida Atlantic -43.75 → Florida Atlantic -45.75 | 60.75 → 62 | — / — |
| Bovada | Florida Atlantic -44 | 61 → 61.5 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Florida Atlantic -43.5 → Florida Atlantic -47.5 | 60.5 → 62.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Florida Atlantic win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Florida Atlantic -25.5 | 63.2 | 95% |
| Market consensus | Florida Atlantic -46 | 62.0 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Florida Atlantic -42.5 | 61.9 | 100% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Florida Atlantic win probability
- model 95% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Florida Atlantic -25.7 · market Florida Atlantic -45.75 · difference -20.0 pts (Florida Atlantic view)
- Total
- model 63.2 · market 62 · difference +1.2
Model margin is 20.0 pts more toward Texas Southern than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | Texas Southern 18.8, Florida Atlantic 44.5 | Florida Atlantic 95%right winner | 30.3 | 12.8 |
| New formula | Texas Southern 18.1, Florida Atlantic 44.1 | Florida Atlantic 96%right winner | 30.0 | 13.8 |
Final: Texas Southern 10, Florida Atlantic 66. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
Texas Southern vs Florida Atlantic: stat comparison
Season to date before kickoff: these numbers are frozen at kickoff and do not include this game or anything after it.
| Stat | Texas Southern | Florida Atlantic |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 26.5 | 30.0#77 |
| Points allowed per game | 44.0 | 30.8#121 |
| Yards per play | 5.75 | 5.36#116 |
| Yards per play allowed | 6.60 | 6.83#127 |
| Rushing yards per game | 199.0 | 140.5#112 |
| Net passing yards per game | 180.5 | 288.5#24 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 214.3 | 173.3#105 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 219.8 | 262.3#125 |
| Turnovers per game | 1.50 | 0.50#45 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.50 | 1.25#44 |
| Sacks per game | 1.75 | 1.50#105 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 3.00 | 2.00#97 |
| Stat | Texas Southern | Florida Atlantic |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.09 | +0.11#68 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.10 | +0.10#100 |
| Success rate | 38.9% | 44.1%#62 |
| Success rate allowed | 44.8% | 38.3%#47 |
| Explosive play rate | 14.0% | 8.4%#137 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.1% | 15.0%#123 |
| Havoc rate | 12.1% | 15.7%#41 |
| Havoc allowed | 16.6% | 12.4%#63 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.72 | 4.00#83 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.73 | 4.17#93 |
| Average starting field position | opp 19 | own 33#26 |
| Opponents' starting field position | opp 15 | own 27#40 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 66.0 | 80.0#2 |
| Stat | Texas Southern | Florida Atlantic |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.12 | +0.07#77 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.06 | +0.13#60 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.14 | +0.20#128 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.06 | +0.01#62 |
| Rushing success rate | 43.0% | 40.5%#101 |
| Passing success rate | 33.7% | 47.2%#42 |
| Run stuff rate | 19.0% | 15.3%#56 |
| Passing-down success rate | 27.1% | 39.3%#16 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 34.2% | 26.1%#46 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 46.0% | 50.0%#28 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 46.0% | 40.7%#93 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 57.7% | 54.3%#104 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 67.2% | 76.8%#120 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Texas Southern schedule · Florida Atlantic schedule · all Week 5 projections
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