Matchup analysis
Our model projects Tulsa 36, Florida Atlantic 30 at H. A. Chapman Stadium in Week 11. That is a lean: Tulsa wins about 66% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 6.5 points and 66.4 combined points. Tags: upset alert, leans high scoring.
Florida Atlantic is 5-2 against the 119th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37.3 and allowing 34 points per game (+3.3 per game). Tulsa is 4-4 against the 89th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 29.8 and allowing 24.4 points per game (+5.4 per game).
Florida Atlantic's middle-of-the-pack offense (55th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.1 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Tulsa's below-average defense (94th); that mismatch is where most of Florida Atlantic's projected points come from. The most lopsided unit battle: Tulsa's below-average offense (88th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 24.6 points against an average defense) against Florida Atlantic's struggling defense (135th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Florida Atlantic by 16 and Tulsa by 29 about 80% of the time.
Tulsa gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Tulsa by about 4.4.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Florida Atlantic vs Tulsa: stat comparison
| Stat | Florida Atlantic | Tulsa |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.3#17 | 29.8#63 |
| Points allowed per game | 34.0#130 | 24.4#71 |
| Yards per play | 5.64#102 | 5.74#93 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.09#135 | 5.71#78 |
| Rushing yards per game | 137.3#113 | 168.0#67 |
| Net passing yards per game | 289.1#12 | 202.8#93 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 264.0#137 | 214.8#129 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 187.0#42 | 196.8#50 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.43#22 | 0.38#13 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86#77 | 1.25#28 |
| Sacks per game | 1.14#126 | 2.13#65 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.86#75 | 1.38#39 |
| Stat | Florida Atlantic | Tulsa |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.17#34 | +0.14#44 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.17#123 | +0.02#57 |
| Success rate | 46.8%#33 | 40.1%#106 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.9%#82 | 39.6%#46 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.9%#130 | 11.1%#111 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.7%#128 | 10.7%#39 |
| Havoc rate | 13.1%#92 | 10.7%#132 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.9%#58 | 13.8%#83 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.11#70 | 4.41#42 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.86#75 | 3.24#22 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#32 | own 31#44 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#38 | own 29#65 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 75.6#4 | 64.6#81 |
| Stat | Florida Atlantic | Tulsa |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.13#43 | +0.18#14 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.20#35 | +0.09#70 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.25#136 | +0.03#66 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05#69 | +0.00#50 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.2%#73 | 41.4%#96 |
| Passing success rate | 51.7%#13 | 38.7%#102 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.2%#55 | 14.4%#26 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.5%#25 | 24.4%#128 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.6%#78 | 32.6%#106 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 52.7%#12 | 33.0%#124 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.8%#85 | 41.4%#98 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.2%#56 | 71.8%#25 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 69.6%#120 | 50.5%#36 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Florida Atlantic schedule · Tulsa schedule · all Week 11 projections
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