Matchup analysis
Our model projects North Texas 49, Florida Atlantic 35 at DATCU Stadium in Week 9. That is a solid edge: North Texas wins about 82% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.8 points and 84.4 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
Florida Atlantic is 5-2 against the 120th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 37.3 and allowing 34 points per game (+3.3 per game). North Texas is 5-2 against the 84th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 43.1 and allowing 30.6 points per game (+12.5 per game).
The most lopsided unit battle: Florida Atlantic's middle-of-the-pack offense (55th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 28.1 points against an average defense) against North Texas's below-average defense (116th). North Texas's strong offense (15th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.3 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Florida Atlantic's struggling defense (135th); that mismatch is where most of North Texas's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Florida Atlantic by 9 and North Texas by 36 about 80% of the time.
North Texas gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour North Texas by about 11.7. The game is on ESPN.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (Florida Atlantic / North Texas) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | North Texas -13.5 | 77.25 | +390 / -540.5 |
| FanDuel | North Texas -13.5 | 77.5 | +385 / -500 |
| DraftKings | North Texas -13.5 | 77.5 | +390 / -520 |
| BetRivers | North Texas -13.5 | 76.5 | +410 / -590 |
| Hard Rock Bet | North Texas -13.5 | 76.5 | +400 / -600 |
| theScore Bet | North Texas -13.5 | 77.5 | +380 / -550 |
| BetMGM | North Texas -13.5 | 77.5 | +380 / -500 |
| Pinnacle | North Texas -13.5 | 77 | +393 / -531 |
| Bovada | North Texas -14 | 77 | +390 / -550 |
This game's lines: The Odds API · read Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | North Texas win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | North Texas -14 | 84.4 | 82% |
| Market consensus | North Texas -13.5 | 77.3 | 81% |
| Blended projection | North Texas -13.5 | 76.3 | 82% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- North Texas win probability
- model 82% · market (no-vig) 81% · difference +1 pts
- Margin
- model North Texas -13.8 · market North Texas -13.5 · difference +0.3 pts (North Texas view)
- Total
- model 84.4 · market 77.25 · difference +7.2
Prediction exchange (Kalshi) price implies North Texas 83%.
Model and market margins agree within half a point.
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Florida Atlantic vs North Texas: stat comparison
| Stat | Florida Atlantic | North Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 37.3#17 | 43.1#2 |
| Points allowed per game | 34.0#130 | 30.6#116 |
| Yards per play | 5.64#102 | 7.66#4 |
| Yards per play allowed | 7.09#135 | 6.11#102 |
| Rushing yards per game | 137.3#113 | 189.9#45 |
| Net passing yards per game | 289.1#12 | 345.1#3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 264.0#137 | 189.1#111 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 187.0#42 | 208.7#75 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.43#22 | 0.86#65 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.86#77 | 0.86#78 |
| Sacks per game | 1.14#126 | 1.86#86 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.86#75 | 0.86#13 |
| Stat | Florida Atlantic | North Texas |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.17#34 | +0.33#1 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.17#123 | +0.16#121 |
| Success rate | 46.8%#33 | 50.6%#8 |
| Success rate allowed | 41.9%#82 | 44.5%#113 |
| Explosive play rate | 9.9%#130 | 17.7%#3 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 14.7%#128 | 13.5%#106 |
| Havoc rate | 13.1%#92 | 11.5%#120 |
| Havoc allowed | 12.9%#58 | 9.9%#11 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.11#70 | 4.81#21 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 3.86#75 | 4.43#116 |
| Average starting field position | own 32#32 | own 30#60 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 27#38 | own 32#128 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 75.6#4 | 69.9#26 |
| Stat | Florida Atlantic | North Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.13#43 | +0.12#45 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.20#35 | +0.51#1 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.25#136 | +0.07#86 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.05#69 | +0.29#132 |
| Rushing success rate | 44.2%#73 | 43.2%#82 |
| Passing success rate | 51.7%#13 | 56.8%#2 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.2%#55 | 17.4%#77 |
| Passing-down success rate | 36.5%#25 | 36.1%#28 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 30.6%#78 | 30.7%#83 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 52.7%#12 | 50.0%#19 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 39.8%#85 | 37.6%#56 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 65.2%#56 | 74.4%#15 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 69.6%#120 | 68.8%#116 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Florida Atlantic schedule · North Texas schedule · all Week 9 projections
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