2026 schedule
North Texas Mean Green
2026 season so far
North Texas is 5-2 against the 84th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 43.1 and allowing 30.6 points per game (+12.5 per game).
In our opponent-adjusted ratings North Texas ranks 58th of 139 FBS teams overall — 15th on offense and 116th on defense. The offense carries this team more than the defense does.
Next up: vs Florida Atlantic in Week 9. We project North Texas 49, Florida Atlantic 35 — North Texas wins 82% of the time.
Projections are statistical estimates for entertainment and analysis only. They are not betting advice and nothing here guarantees any result.
Regular season
12 gamesMarket lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
- at
#6 Indiana Hoosiers
1-0 · SOS #32
Loss 16-52
Week 1
Our number· pregame
Indiana by 13.5
Total 67.5
DraftKings
IU -39.5
Total 57.5
Final Indiana by 36. North Texas beat the spread. 68 points — over the 57.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Indiana -40 (open Indiana -40.5) · O/U 56.75 (open 55.5) · model vs market -26.5 pts (Indiana view)
Fox Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) - vs
UNLV Rebels
1-2 · SOS #82
Win 44-6
Week 2
Our number· pregame
North Texas by 5.9
Total 61.9
DraftKings
UNLV -3
Total 58.5
Final North Texas by 38. North Texas beat the spread. 50 points — under the 58.5. Our number was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: UNLV -2.75 (open UNLV -5.5) · O/U 58.25 (open 59.25) · ML -166.5 / +142 · North Texas 40% no-vig · model vs market +8.6 pts, +25 pct pts (North Texas view)
ESPNU DATCU Stadium - at
Texas State Bobcats
1-2 · SOS #58
Loss 35-49
Week 3
Our number· pregame
North Texas by 4.1
Total 57.3
DraftKings
TXST -3
Total 62.5
Final Texas State by 14. Texas State beat the spread. 84 points — over the 62.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: Texas State -3 · O/U 62.5 (open 63.5) · ML +125 / -146 · Texas State 57% no-vig · model vs market -7.1 pts, -18 pct pts (Texas State view)
USA Net UFCU Stadium - vs
Houston Christian Huskies
2-3 · SOS #105
Win 63-14
Week 4
Our number· pregame
North Texas by 23.5
Total 61.7
DraftKings
UNT -38.5
Total 60.5
Final North Texas by 49. North Texas beat the spread. 77 points — over the 60.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Texas -38.25 (open North Texas -37.5) · O/U 60.5 (open 59.25) · ML +5000 / -100000 · North Texas 98% no-vig · model vs market -14.7 pts, -4 pct pts (North Texas view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 88°F, Wind 9 mph SE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDTO)ESPN+ DATCU Stadium - at
Tulsa Golden Hurricane
3-2 · SOS #98
Win 45-44
Week 5
Our number· pregame
North Texas by 5.7
Total 58.1
DraftKings
UNT -3
Total 56.5
Final North Texas by 1. Tulsa beat the spread. 89 points — over the 56.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Texas -2 (open Tulsa -0.25) · O/U 56.75 (open 57.75) · ML -21.5 / -0.5 · Tulsa 48% no-vig · model vs market -3.7 pts, -13 pct pts (Tulsa view)
Game-time weather: Mostly clear, 70°F, Wind 5 mph E.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KTUL)ESPN H. A. Chapman Stadium - vs
Charlotte 49ers
0-6 · SOS #80
Win 50-10
Week 6
Our number· pregame
North Texas by 26.8
Total 64.6
DraftKings
UNT -27.5
Total 58.5
Final North Texas by 40. North Texas beat the spread. 60 points — over the 58.5. The book was closer. The book's total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Texas -27.75 · O/U 58.25 (open 58.5) · ML +1500 / -4750 · North Texas 94% no-vig · model vs market -0.9 pts, +2 pct pts (North Texas view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 90°F, Wind 10 mph SE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KDTO)ESPN+ DATCU Stadium - at
Navy Midshipmen
2-5 · SOS #99
Win 49-39
Week 8
Our number· pregame
North Texas by 1.9
Total 61.9
DraftKings
UNT -3
Total 60.5
Final North Texas by 10. North Texas beat the spread. 88 points — over the 60.5. The book was closer. Our total was closer.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Texas -3 · O/U 60.5 · ML -150 / +125 · Navy 44% no-vig · model vs market +1.1 pts, +1 pct pts (Navy view)
Game-time weather: Clear, 61°F, Wind 3 mph ESE.Observed during the game · National Weather Service (KNAK)CBSSN Navy-Marine Corps Memorial Stadium - vs
Florida Atlantic Owls
5-2 · SOS #120
Thu, Oct 29, 11:30 PM
Week 9
Proj 49-35 · 82%
Our number
North Texas by 14
Total 84
DraftKings
UNT -13.5
Total 77.5
We agree with the book. Shown for comparison only.
21+ only where legal. Gambling problem? Call 1-800-GAMBLER.
Market lines: North Texas -13.5 · O/U 77.25 · ML +390 / -540.5 · North Texas 81% no-vig · model vs market +0.5 pts, +1 pct pts (North Texas view)
Kickoff forecast: Slight chance rain showers, 80°F, Wind 10 mph S, 22% rain.Kickoff forecast · National Weather Service, updated Oct 29, 2:37 AM EDTESPN DATCU Stadium - vs
Rice Owls
1-7 · SOS #66
Sat, Nov 7, 9:00 PM
Week 10
Proj 40-23 · 88%
Our number
North Texas by 17
Total 63
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
ESPNU DATCU Stadium - at
UTSA Roadrunners
7-1 · SOS #73
Sat, Nov 14 · TBD
Week 11
Proj 36-38 · 43%
Our number
UTSA by 2
Total 74
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Alamodome - at
Tulane Green Wave
3-4 · SOS #50
Sat, Nov 21 · TBD
Week 12
Proj 32-27 · 63%
Our number
North Texas by 5
Total 59
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
Yulman Stadium - vs
UAB Blazers
4-3 · SOS #94
Sat, Nov 28 · TBD
Week 13
Proj 41-24 · 88%
Our number
North Texas by 17
Total 65
Book line
Not posted
No book line posted yet.
DATCU Stadium
Times shown in your local time
North Texas Mean Green stats: basic, advanced and situational
Power rating
+2.1
58th in FBS
Adj. offense
34.3
pts vs avg defense
Adj. defense
32.2
pts allowed vs avg offense
Basic stats
Box-score numbers per game.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Points per gameEvery point scored, every game. | 43.1 | 2 / 138 |
| Points allowed per gameEvery point conceded, every game. | 30.6 | 116 / 138 |
| Yards per playScrimmage yards divided by scrimmage plays (sacks count as pass plays). | 7.66 | 4 / 138 |
| Yards per play allowedThe same measure for opponents. | 6.11 | 102 / 138 |
| Rushing yards per gameDesigned runs and scrambles. | 189.9 | 45 / 138 |
| Net passing yards per gamePassing yards minus sack yardage. | 345.1 | 3 / 138 |
| Rushing yards allowed per gameOpponents' rushing yards. | 189.1 | 111 / 138 |
| Net passing yards allowed per gameOpponents' net passing yards. | 208.7 | 75 / 138 |
| Turnovers per gameInterceptions thrown and fumbles lost. | 0.86 | 65 / 138 |
| Takeaways per gameInterceptions and fumble recoveries. | 0.86 | 78 / 138 |
| Sacks per gameSacks by this defense. | 1.86 | 86 / 138 |
| Sacks allowed per gameSacks taken by this offense. | 0.86 | 13 / 138 |
Advanced stats
Efficiency from play-by-play, garbage time removed: expected points added (EPA), success rate, explosiveness, havoc, finishing drives, field position and pace.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per playExpected points added per snap, garbage time removed. Zero is average; +0.10 is very good. | +0.33 | 1 / 138 |
| EPA per play allowedExpected points the defense gives up per snap. Lower is better. | +0.16 | 121 / 138 |
| Success rateShare of plays that stay on schedule: 50% of the distance on 1st down, 70% on 2nd, all of it on 3rd and 4th. | 50.6% | 8 / 138 |
| Success rate allowedOpponents' success rate. | 44.5% | 113 / 138 |
| Explosive play rateRuns of 12+ yards and passes of 16+ yards, as a share of plays. | 17.7% | 3 / 138 |
| Explosive plays allowedThe same rate for opponents. | 13.5% | 106 / 138 |
| Havoc rateShare of snaps with a tackle for loss, sack, forced fumble, interception or pass break-up. | 11.5% | 120 / 138 |
| Havoc allowedHow often this offense suffers a havoc play. | 9.9% | 11 / 138 |
| Points per scoring opportunityFinishing drives: points per possession that reaches the opponent's 40. | 4.81 | 21 / 138 |
| Points per opportunity allowedHow well the defense holds once opponents cross its 40. | 4.43 | 116 / 138 |
| Average starting field positionWhere this offense's drives begin, on average. | own 30 | 60 / 138 |
| Opponents' starting field positionWhere opponents' drives begin. | own 32 | 128 / 138 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace)Scrimmage snaps per game; a tempo measure. | 69.9 | 26 / 138 |
Situational stats
Run vs pass splits, passing downs, third downs and the red zone.
| Stat | 2026 | FBS rank |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per playExpected points added on runs. | +0.12 | 45 / 138 |
| Passing EPA per playExpected points added on dropbacks, sacks included. | +0.51 | 1 / 138 |
| Rushing EPA allowedRun defense, per play. | +0.07 | 86 / 138 |
| Passing EPA allowedPass defense, per dropback. | +0.29 | 132 / 138 |
| Rushing success rateShare of runs that stay on schedule. | 43.2% | 82 / 138 |
| Passing success rateShare of dropbacks that stay on schedule. | 56.8% | 2 / 138 |
| Run stuff rateRuns stopped at or behind the line. | 17.4% | 77 / 138 |
| Passing-down success rateSuccess on 2nd-and-8+ and 3rd/4th-and-5+. | 36.1% | 28 / 138 |
| Passing-down success allowedHow often opponents escape long-yardage downs. | 30.7% | 83 / 138 |
| Third-down conversion rateThird downs converted by the play itself. | 50.0% | 19 / 138 |
| Third-down rate allowedOpponents' third-down conversions. | 37.6% | 56 / 138 |
| Red-zone touchdown rateDrives reaching the 20 that end in a touchdown. | 74.4% | 15 / 138 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowedOpponents' red-zone touchdown rate. | 68.8% | 116 / 138 |
Power rating = projected margin against an average FBS team on a neutral field, from our opponent-adjusted efficiency model. How it works and how accurate it has been.
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