Matchup analysis
Before kickoff our model projected Indiana 40.5, North Texas 27 at Memorial Stadium (Bloomington, IN) in Week 1. That is a solid edge: Indiana wins about 81% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 13.5 points and 67.4 combined points. Tags: leans high scoring.
North Texas has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results. Indiana has not played a game yet this season, so its number leans on last year's results.
North Texas's strong offense (15th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.3 points against an average defense) meets Indiana's elite defense (1st) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points North Texas puts up. The most lopsided unit battle: Indiana's elite offense (9th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 36.1 points against an average defense) against North Texas's below-average defense (116th).
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between North Texas by 9 and Indiana by 36 about 80% of the time.
Indiana gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour Indiana by about 11.4. The game is on Fox.
Result: North Texas 16, Indiana 52. The model had the right winner; the margin was off by 22.5 points and the total by 0.6.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
| Provider | Spread (open → now) | Total (open → now) | Moneyline (North Texas / Indiana) |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consensus | Indiana -40.5 → Indiana -40 | 55.5 → 56.75 | — / — |
| Bovada | Indiana -40.5 | 55.5 → 56 | — / — |
| DraftKings | Indiana -40.5 → Indiana -39.5 | 57.5 | — / — |
This game's lines: CollegeFootballData.com · read Oct 22, 6:37 PM UTC.
| Projection | Margin | Total | Indiana win |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | Indiana -13.5 | 67.4 | 81% |
| Market consensus | Indiana -40 | 56.8 | 100% |
| Blended projection | Indiana -36 | 57.6 | 99% |
Blended projection = 0.16 x our margin + 0.84 x the market margin, weights fitted on past seasons (see methodology).
Model vs market
- Indiana win probability
- model 81% · market (no-vig) —
- Margin
- model Indiana -13.5 · market Indiana -40 · difference -26.5 pts (Indiana view)
- Total
- model 67.4 · market 56.75 · difference +10.7
Model margin is 26.5 pts more toward North Texas than the market.
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Original projection vs new formula
| Projection | Score | Win prob | Margin miss | Total miss |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Original projection | North Texas 27.0, Indiana 40.5 | Indiana 81%right winner | 22.5 | 0.6 |
| New formula | North Texas 10.3, Indiana 49.1 | Indiana 99%right winner | 2.8 | 8.6 |
Final: North Texas 16, Indiana 52. Original = the number we posted before kickoff. New formula (2026-10-21 matchup terms) = the current model re-run with only the games played before this one.
North Texas vs Indiana: stat comparison
2025 season numbers (this season's sample is still too small).
| Stat | North Texas | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 45.1#1 | 41.6#3 |
| Points allowed per game | 26.5#78 | 11.7#2 |
| Yards per play | 7.46#2 | 7.02#12 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.64#54 | 4.97#12 |
| Rushing yards per game | 206.4#22 | 227.3#12 |
| Net passing yards per game | 326.6#2 | 238.5#54 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 230.0#135 | 95.1#2 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 174.9#16 | 179.9#19 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.93#57 | 0.50#4 |
| Takeaways per game | 1.93#5 | 1.31#34 |
| Sacks per game | 1.64#97 | 2.69#15 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.29#21 | 1.56#45 |
| Stat | North Texas | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.24#2 | +0.15#15 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.07#103 | -0.10#16 |
| Success rate | 51.5%#3 | 51.2%#4 |
| Success rate allowed | 42.8%#87 | 35.4%#11 |
| Explosive play rate | 17.3%#2 | 13.8%#26 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 10.1%#26 | 10.6%#32 |
| Havoc rate | 11.9%#89 | 16.9%#3 |
| Havoc allowed | 9.1%#5 | 10.8%#32 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 4.88#7 | 5.24#2 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.04#90 | 2.46#1 |
| Average starting field position | own 35#4 | own 32#21 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 30#73 | own 26#2 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 71.4#17 | 66.4#64 |
| Stat | North Texas | Indiana |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.21#4 | +0.06#51 |
| Passing EPA per play | +0.27#5 | +0.28#4 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.14#133 | -0.12#12 |
| Passing EPA allowed | -0.05#44 | -0.08#33 |
| Rushing success rate | 52.4%#3 | 47.5%#27 |
| Passing success rate | 50.2%#8 | 55.9%#2 |
| Run stuff rate | 15.1%#22 | 13.6%#9 |
| Passing-down success rate | 38.8%#6 | 39.7%#5 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 29.4%#70 | 27.4%#31 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 48.0%#19 | 58.1%#1 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.6%#110 | 32.8%#10 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 74.7%#7 | 73.7%#11 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 62.0%#84 | 40.0%#3 |
# = rank among 136 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: North Texas schedule · Indiana schedule · all Week 1 projections
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