Matchup analysis
Our model projects North Texas 40, Rice 23 at DATCU Stadium in Week 10. That is a heavy edge: North Texas wins about 88% of the time by our estimate, with a projected margin of 17.6 points and 62.7 combined points. Tags: favorite holds, leans high scoring.
Rice is 1-7 against the 66th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 21 and allowing 31.8 points per game (-10.8 per game). North Texas is 5-2 against the 84th-toughest schedule so far, scoring 43.1 and allowing 30.6 points per game (+12.5 per game).
Rice's struggling offense (123rd of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 18.7 points against an average defense) meets North Texas's below-average defense (116th) — an even matchup on paper, so game script and turnovers will decide how many points Rice puts up. North Texas's strong offense (15th of 139 in our opponent-adjusted ratings, worth about 34.3 points against an average defense) has the clear edge over Rice's below-average defense (111th); that mismatch is where most of North Texas's projected points come from.
College football is noisy: even a well-rated projection misses the final margin by about 14 points on average. Based on how real results have scattered around our numbers, the final margin should land somewhere between Rice by 5 and North Texas by 40 about 80% of the time.
North Texas gets about 2.1 points for playing at home. Even on a neutral field the ratings would still favour North Texas by about 15.5. The game is on ESPNU.
Market lines
Market lines · Source: The Odds API, ESPN, Action Network · Updated Oct 29, 9:25 AM UTC. Shown for information; not an input to our projections.
No market line has been posted for this game yet.
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Rice vs North Texas: stat comparison
| Stat | Rice | North Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Points per game | 21.0#116 | 43.1#2 |
| Points allowed per game | 31.8#121 | 30.6#116 |
| Yards per play | 5.93#77 | 7.66#4 |
| Yards per play allowed | 5.77#81 | 6.11#102 |
| Rushing yards per game | 283.4#4 | 189.9#45 |
| Net passing yards per game | 74.4#136 | 345.1#3 |
| Rushing yards allowed per game | 188.0#108 | 189.1#111 |
| Net passing yards allowed per game | 201.4#57 | 208.7#75 |
| Turnovers per game | 0.50#25 | 0.86#65 |
| Takeaways per game | 0.25#138 | 0.86#78 |
| Sacks per game | 1.50#106 | 1.86#86 |
| Sacks allowed per game | 1.75#64 | 0.86#13 |
| Stat | Rice | North Texas |
|---|---|---|
| EPA per play | +0.10#59 | +0.33#1 |
| EPA per play allowed | +0.12#108 | +0.16#121 |
| Success rate | 41.8%#85 | 50.6%#8 |
| Success rate allowed | 43.1%#96 | 44.5%#113 |
| Explosive play rate | 10.8%#119 | 17.7%#3 |
| Explosive plays allowed | 13.6%#107 | 13.5%#106 |
| Havoc rate | 13.1%#91 | 11.5%#120 |
| Havoc allowed | 11.6%#33 | 9.9%#11 |
| Points per scoring opportunity | 3.38#122 | 4.81#21 |
| Points per opportunity allowed | 4.10#100 | 4.43#116 |
| Average starting field position | own 25#135 | own 30#60 |
| Opponents' starting field position | own 35#137 | own 32#128 |
| Offensive plays per game (pace) | 60.4#117 | 69.9#26 |
| Stat | Rice | North Texas |
|---|---|---|
| Rushing EPA per play | +0.20#11 | +0.12#45 |
| Passing EPA per play | -0.21#135 | +0.51#1 |
| Rushing EPA allowed | +0.08#92 | +0.07#86 |
| Passing EPA allowed | +0.15#103 | +0.29#132 |
| Rushing success rate | 45.7%#56 | 43.2%#82 |
| Passing success rate | 29.0%#136 | 56.8%#2 |
| Run stuff rate | 16.8%#68 | 17.4%#77 |
| Passing-down success rate | 25.0%#124 | 36.1%#28 |
| Passing-down success allowed | 31.7%#101 | 30.7%#83 |
| Third-down conversion rate | 33.0%#125 | 50.0%#19 |
| Third-down rate allowed | 44.0%#116 | 37.6%#56 |
| Red-zone touchdown rate | 50.0%#119 | 74.4%#15 |
| Red-zone TD rate allowed | 61.8%#83 | 68.8%#116 |
# = rank among 138 FBS teams. Efficiency numbers exclude garbage time. Per-play numbers of teams with a weak schedule are pulled toward their opponent-adjusted values (fully at one standard deviation below an average schedule). Source: play-by-play (cfbfastR / sportsdataverse), aggregated by us.
More: Rice schedule · North Texas schedule · all Week 10 projections
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